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Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World American Public Power Association October 17, 2006 Barbara Tyran Director, Washington.

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Presentation on theme: "Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World American Public Power Association October 17, 2006 Barbara Tyran Director, Washington."— Presentation transcript:

1 Transition of the Generation Fleet in a Carbon-constrained World American Public Power Association October 17, 2006 Barbara Tyran Director, Washington Relations

2 2 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Objective Provide an objective and factual framework for discussing generation technologies and investment decisions in a carbon- constrained world

3 3 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Framework Overview Levelized cost of electricity –Standard EPRI methodology –Constant 2006 $ costs –Lines are mean values from a range of studies Two key uncertainties –Future “cost” of CO 2 –Future price of natural gas Two technology portfolios –2010-2015 time-period –2020-2025 time-period

4 4 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Base-load Generation Options Dispatchable Generation –Fossil Generation Pulverized coal (PC) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) –Nuclear –Biomass Intermittent Generation –Wind

5 5 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Pulverized Coal 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 2010 - 2015 0.8 Tons CO2/MWh X $50/Ton = +$40/MWh PC

6 6 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh PC IGCC 2010 - 2015

7 7 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Natural Gas Combined Cycle 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh NGCC@$8 NGCC@$4 2010 - 2015 0.4 Tons/MWh x $50/Ton = +$20/MWh NGCC@$6

8 8 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Nuclear Biomass Non-CO 2 Emitting Dispatchable Generation 2010 - 2015

9 9 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 U.S. Wind Capacity Factors* Average of distribution = 29% Central range = 25-35% *2005 data from Platts

10 10 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Wind Generation 2010 - 2015 Wind@29% CF

11 11 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Comparative Costs in 2010-2015 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Wind@29% CF Nuclear PC IGCC Biomass NGCC@$6

12 12 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Take-Aways for 2010-2015 Time Period Almost all new dispatchable base-load generation needed to meet U.S. demand growth prior to 2015 will utilize fossil-fueled technologies (NGCC, PC, and IGCC) without CO 2 capture and storage. Wide-scale commercial operation of new advanced light water reactor nuclear plants and new advanced coal plants with CO 2 capture and storage in the U.S. will probably not occur until after 2015.

13 13 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 What’s Possible: 2020-2025 Horizon Key Drivers Technology Advances in Efficiency Cost Reductions through Design Improvements CO2 Capture and Storage - Development and Deployment

14 14 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Pulverized Coal w/o Capture 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh PC w/o cap 2020-2025 PC w/o cap 2010-2015 2020 - 2025 Assumes increased efficiency and some cost reduction

15 15 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Pulverized Coal with CO 2 Capture and Storage 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Current MEA capture technology (PC) Advanced capture technology (PC-USC) 2020 - 2025 PC w/o capture

16 16 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 IGCC w/o Capture 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh IGCC w/o capture 2010-2015 IGCC, w/o capture 2020-2025 Assumes efficiency improvements and cost reductions

17 17 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 IGCC with CO 2 Capture and Storage 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh IGCC w/ capture (2020-2025) 2020 - 2025 IGCC w/o capture (2020-2025)

18 18 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Advanced IGCC and Advanced PC with Capture 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh IGCC w/o cap IGCC with capture PC-USC with advanced capture* PC w/o cap 2020 - 2025 *midpoint of Ammonia Carbonate and AC/Membrane/Improvement cases Technology “Horserace”…choice may be fuel or operating strategy dependent

19 19 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Natural Gas Combined Cycle 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh NGCC@$6 (2010-2015) NGCC@$6 (2020-2025) 2020 - 2025

20 20 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Biomass 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Biomass 2010-2015 10 Biomass 2020-2025 2020 - 2025

21 21 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Wind Generation 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 32% CF in 2020-2025 29% CF in 2010-2015 2020 - 2025 40% CF in 2020-2025 35% CF in 2020-2025

22 22 © 2006 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. September 2006 Comparative Costs in 2020-2025 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 01020304050 Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Nuclear Wind Biomass NGCC@$6 An Extraordinary Opportunity to Develop a Low-carbon Portfolio IGCC w/cap PC w/cap

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