1. Democracy in Transition

2. Russia’s Wrong Turn? Back to the USSR – or to Hell? Perception of Russia as an unfree country Perception of Russia which is more assertive in international politics Smell of a new Cold War And, as Cold War rules of conduct require, Russians respond in kind:  We are a democracy, a free country  Don’t judge us by your standards, because we are a different civilization  What you don’t like is the fact that since 1999, Russia has become stronger and more independent

3. Who needs democracy – and for what ends? The Russian experiment with democracy, started in 1985, was driven by elite perceptions of the efficiency of democratic political systems compared to authoritarian systems It was expected to save and revive the Soviet system When democratic practices began to threaten the Soviet system, there was an attempt to suspend it – The August 1991 coup After the attempt failed, democracy was used as the most effective way of destroying that system Democracy was a potent weapon against communist rule and the Soviet state Democracy did help accomplish the demolition mission

4. What about the mission of construction? How useful has democracy been as a tool to build a capitalist political economy? It did help accomplish:  The shift to market economy and private ownership  Partial legitimization of capitalism  Partial integration with the West Accomplishing even those tasks did considerable damage to democratic governance

5. Consolidation of capitalism?  A capitalist political economy capable of reproducing and sustaining itself in the context of globalization  Productivity and competitiveness  A functional state  Improvement of socioeconomic conditions  Social and political stability

6. How does political democracy relate to these tasks? In general, we can say: democratic capitalism works better than authoritarian capitalism In the long run, a virtual circle A normative liberal democracy would best suit Russia But what about the short run?

7. In the short run, there is a deep and acute conflict between the requirements of democratic development and the tasks of capitalist consolidation Democracy became an obstacle to consolidation of capitalism, a mortal threat to the preservation of Russia’s post-communist regime The only way that regime could survive the social upheaval of the 1990s was through subverting and limiting democratic practices in Russia

8. Putinism Focus on national security Restoration of the power of the state Re-centralization of political authority Fall back on command methods Expansion of the power of security services Increased control of media – both direct and indirect Increasing resort to Russian nationalist ideas

9. Obviously, the conflict between democratic development and capitalist consolidation has not been resolved It has been frozen – for a while At the core of Putinism, is the restoration of a Russian state – not a Western-type liberal- democratic state, but a state shaped by Russian traditions

10. A corporate-bureaucratic regime Coexists with society which tolerates it for now – because it does not see viable alternatives It is rooted in

11. They support Putin And don’t see Putinism as a threat to freedom BUT: They desperately want socioeconomic change which would reverse the trends of the 1990s They assert the values of justice and equality They are sceptical about capitalism Agitation for democracy continues Threats to regime are suppressed

12. WHICH WAY WILL RUSSIA GO? Political attitudes. THE ISSUE OF STALIN - BUT… Study: T.I.Kutkovets et al., “Self-Identification of the Russians in the Early 21 st Century”. Moskovskie novosti, No.25, 3.07.02 “The Russian System”, 3 main elements: Dominance of the state over the individual Paternalism Isolation from the outside world “The Modern Alternative”,3 main elements: Priority of individual interests over the state Emphasis on individual responsibility Openness to the outside world

13. TRADITIONALISTS Hard core (support all 3 elements of the Russian System) – 7% Reserve (support 2 out of 3) – 22% MODERNIZERS Hard core (support all 3 elements of the Modern Alternative) – 33% Reserve (support 2 out of 3) – 37% The Russian System loses 29:70 Russian society does not want to be treated as a passive object of the state

14. Which social system do you consider more normal and proper? Primacy of individual freedom and personal interests; the duty of the state is to guarantee them – 70% Primacy of state interests, the duty of the citizen is to help the state do its job - 26% Not sure - 4%

15. Most important principles of the organization of the state: 70% - adherence to the Constitution 48% - strict observance of laws What kind of Russia do we need? 24% - a great military power, where interests of the state are supreme 76% - a country comfortable to live in, where human interests are supreme, and people have opportunities for improving their lot

16. Characterization of the existing Russian state: 80% - have no idea where Russia is going (but many think that Putin knows) 78% - laws are violated by government officials 58% - government officials are corrupt 50% - nothing can be done to stop the bureaucrats’ arbitrary behaviour 9% - citizens can use the courts to defend themselves 11% - citizens can use bribes or help of the criminals to defend themselves 20% - the government helps me 33% - the government creates problems for me 45% - the government does not play any role in my life

17. WHAT DOES RUSSIA NEED MOST TO OVERCOME ITS CRISIS AND ACHIEVE SUCCESS? 45% - to strengthen the state in accordance with Russia’s historical experience and traditions 54% - to strengthen the state by changing its basic mode of operation TRADITIONALISTS OR MODERNIZERS?

18. Which path of development should Russia follow? (Opinion poll, Feb. 2004, ROMIR): 18% - European 2% - Asian 76% - Russia’s own Johnson’s Russia List, No.8111, 11.03.04, Item 17

19. What is democracy? (Russian public opinion: Yuri Levada Center, March 2004)  44% - civil liberties (freedom of speech, press, association, etc.)  31% - economic growth  29% - order, stability  24% - rule of law  18% - electing top government leaders  11% - a meaningless thing  6% - anarchy Johnson’s Russia List, No.8111, 11.03.04, Item 18

20. When will Russia become a democracy? 18% - never 10% - it is a democracy already 5% - in 5 years 23% - in 15-20 years 13% - in 20-50 years 8% - in more than 50 years Johnson’s Russia List, No.8111, 11.03.04, Item 18

21. RussiansAmericans Fully agree 1556 Somewhat agree 3734 Somewhat disagree 235 Fully disagree 113 Hard to say 142 “Do you agree or disagree that democracy is the best way to govern a state?” Poll conducted among 1600 Russians and 1060 Americans in June-July 2006 (http://www.levada.ru/press/2006071102.html)

22. RussiansAmericans Much more democratic 167 Somewhat more democratic 3562 Somewhat less democratic 1319 Much less democratic 86 Hard to say 286 “10 years from now, will Russia be more democratic or less democratic than today?” Poll conducted among 1600 Russians and 1060 Americans in June-July 2006 (http://www.levada.ru/press/2006071102.html)

23. RussiansAmericans Very positive 414 Positive 2058 Negative 4121 Very negative 155 Hard to say 202 Poll conducted among 1600 Russians and 1060 Americans in June-July 2006 (http://www.levada.ru/press/2006071102.html) “What is your attitude to US actions to promote democratic freedoms and human rights throughout the world?”

24. July 2006 One big ruling party 32 2 or 3 big parties 42 Many smaller parties 5 We don’t need any parties 7 Hard to say 14 “How many parties, in your opinion, does Russia need today?” http://www.levada.ru/press/2006072504.html

25. March 2006July 2006 Trust fully 2618 Rather trust than distrust 4759 Rather distrust than trust 1714 Distrust fully 55 Hard to say 54 “How much do you trust President Putin?” http://www.levada.ru/prezident.html

26. March 2006My family’sRussia’s Very good/good 94 Average5340 Bad/very bad3742 Hard to say113 Assessments of the economic situation http://www.levada.ru/press/2006041104.html

27. Good4 Quiet26 Tense46 Critical, explosive7 Hard to say16 Assessments of the political situation in Russia, March 2006 http://www.levada.ru/press/2006041104.html

28. I am unable to adapt to the new conditions of life 12 I accept that life as it used to be is gone, and I experience privation in things little and big 24 I have to grab every chance to earn money to make sure life is tolerable for me and my loved ones 29 I have used new opportunities and achieved success 8 I continue living like before, little has changed for me 21 How the Russians are adapting to social change, March 2006 (http://www.levada.ru/press/2006041104.html)

29. Full trustSome trustNo trust? President563077 State Duma11425512 Fed. Council11382427 Fed. Govt14393017 Reg. Govt19392815 Local Govt16352815 Parties4284127 Prosecutors14312629 Army20352817 Police11344214 Courts15332726 Lab. unions9203328 Church38211131 Media22422016 Trust in institutions (How much trust do they deserve?)