1. Vulnerability mapping BE-AWARE II Final Project Conference Ronneby, Sweden: 18-19 November 2015 Environmental and socioeconomic vulnerability analysis Documentation: Technical sub report 2: Environmental and socioeconomic vulnerability mapping

2. Vulnerability mapping Objective: Describe vulnerability on a regional scale. map features in a consistent, comparable way to compare across country borders. Add up effects of different relevant environmental and socio- economic features

3. Vulnerability mapping Large area Challenge for homogenous mapping Dependent on available data Different levels of: – details – coverage – features

4. Vulnerability mapping  3 STEPS: 1.Identification of sensitive features 2.Vulnerability ranking of each feature 3.Total vulnerability mapping

5. Vulnerability mapping  3 STEPS: 1.Identification of sensitive features

6. Vulnerability mapping Step 1: ID of features Identified in BE AWARE I Final list revised during BE AWARE II Determined from data availability Data collected from: Central sources such as EU institutions, NGO's and international conventions and organisations Contracting parties Organised by Data request note:

7. Vulnerability mapping Sensitive Ecological features in the BA area Shoreline and Coastal HabitatsOpen Sea Habitats  Exposed rocky shores and reefs on less than 20m depth;  Exposed rocky shores and reefs on more than 20m depth:  Sheltered rocky shores and reefs on less than 20m depth:  Sheltered rocky shores and reefs on more than 20m depth;  Littoral chalk communities;  Sandy beaches;  Shingle beaches;  Tidal sand and mud flats;  Salt marshes;  Underwater sandbanks on less than 20m depth  Underwater sandbanks on more than 20m depth;  Biogenic reefs on less than 20m depth  Biogenic reefs on more than 20m depth  Maerl beds  Seagrass beds (Zostera sp. > 5%)  Estuaries  Coastal lagoons (open to the sea);  Large shallow inlets and bays;  Open water column on less than 20 m depth  Deep sea water column (>20 m depth)  Deep sea floor (>20m depth)  Seamounts  Coral gardens and sponge aggregations  Carbonate mounds  Lophelia pertusa reefs  Sea-pen and burrowing megafauna Species FeaturesCoastal and marine protected areas  Spawning areas for fish  Wintering areas for birds  Staging areas for birds  Breeding areas for birds (incl. foraging areas)  Natura 2000 areas (EC Habitat and Birds Directive (SACs and SPAs))  RAMSAR Convention areas  OSPAR Convention areas  Norwegian national plan for protection of marine areas 34 Ecological features: 26 Habitats 18 coastal 8 open sea 4 Species 1 fish area 3 bird areas 4 Protected areas Step 1: ID of features

8. Vulnerability mapping STEP 1 – Sensitive socioeconomic features Sensitive Industries and Socioeconomic features in the BA area FisheriesAquaculture  Offshore and coastal fisheries  Fish farms  Shellfish cultures  Algae cultures Tourism and recreationOther  Marinas  Overnight stays coastal tourist hotels  Densely populated towns and communities  Main recreational fishing locations  Cruise liner stops  Heritage sites  Ports  Mineral extraction site  Offshore windfarms  Water intakes 14 Socioeconomic features: 1 Fisheries offshore & coastal fisheries 3 Aquaculture fish farms Shellfish cultures Algae cultures 5 Tourism & recreation 5 Other

9. Vulnerability mapping Habitat classes A combination of : EUNIS habitat classif. system EU Habitats Directive Ann. 1 EUNIS classification

10. Vulnerability mapping Habitat classes – Harmonisation

11. Vulnerability mapping Examples of mapping Scaling issues: – Regional maps hide local details – present in data sets and used in analysis Great variability Some features left out but still in – marine mammals (MPAs)

12. Vulnerability mapping Habitats Shoreline classes - Exposed rocky 20 m

13. Vulnerability mapping Sensitivity Habitats Shoreline classes - UW sandbanks 20 m

14. Vulnerability mapping Sensitivity Habitats Shoreline classes - Shingle beaches

15. Vulnerability mapping Habitats Shoreline classes - Estuaries

16. Vulnerability mapping Bird species in original Data request: - Wintering areas - Breeding areas - Staging areas

17. Vulnerability mapping Aggregated into:

18. Vulnerability mapping Fish spawners Demersal (herring) Pelagic Spring Summer Autumn Winter Spring Summer Autumn Winter

19. Vulnerability mapping Fish Pelagic spawners Haddock Blue whiting Norway pout Saithe Cod Whiting Western mackerel Horse mackerel Sprat Demersal spawners Herring

20. Vulnerability mapping Fish pelagic spawners Haddock Blue whiting Norway pout Saithe Cod Whiting Western mackerel Horse mackerel Sprat Demersal spawners Herring

21. Vulnerability mapping Fish Demersal spawners Herring

22. Vulnerability mapping Protected areas - Nature 2000 - Norwegian nat. plan - OSPAR MPAs - World Her. site - Ramsar sites

23. Vulnerability mapping Socio economic tourism Marinas Overnight stays coastal tourist hotels Densely populated towns and communities Main recreational fishing locations Cruise liner stops

24. Vulnerability mapping Overnight stays Estimate of coastlines w. >20,000 stays/km/year Possible underestimate in some areas

25. Vulnerability mapping Socio economy Heritage sites Ports Mineral extraction site Offshore windfarms Water intakes

26. Vulnerability mapping Socio economy Fishing effort 2 sources: - ICES data (VMS) on dredges, beam trawl, otter trawl, demersal seiners - Norwegian data (AIS)

27. Vulnerability mapping  3 STEPS: 2. Vulnerability ranking of each feature

28. Vulnerability mapping Proposed ranking of all features by COWI based on litterature review Ranking workshop determined a final score list: 4 seasons +/- dispersants

29. Vulnerability mapping Fate of oil related to feature Ranking Criteria based on BE AWARE I Potential impact of oil: Sensitivity Recovery Additional criteria for Soc.Econ Length of interruption Compensation

30. Vulnerability mapping  3 STEPS: 3. Total vulnerability mapping

31. Vulnerability mapping single-feature maps Total (seasonal) Vulnerability Maps

32. Vulnerability mapping Vulnerability maps x 4 seasons x dispersed oil spills x non-dispersed spills habitats species protected areas soc. economic features Total: 8 Vulnerability maps 4 seasons x 2 oil spill types Summing individual vulnerability scores Re-classifying total vulnerability scores: Very high High Medium low Very low Weighting btw. features: 25 %

33. Vulnerability mapping Impact x Vulnerability => Damage Base case: Surface Base case: Water column Damage Next step (next talk)

34. Vulnerability mapping Questions? Thank you beaware.bonnagreement.org