1. Understanding the Environmental Impacts of Crop Expansion & Intensification Gillian Galford, J. Melillo, J. Mustard, C.E.P. Cerri Nov 20, 2008 Amazon In Perspective: Integrated Science for a Sustainable Future (LBA/GEOMA/PPBio)

2. Potential Natural Vegetation: Mato Grosso F. Mello, CENA MSc.

3. Detecting croplands & management 1. Study Area, field data 2. MODIS EVI time series 3. Wavelet smoothing 4. Statistics from wavelet- smoothed time series 5. RESULTS: Spatial & temporal cropping patterns Galford et al. 2008

4. Cropland expansion 2001-2006: Croplands increased from 48, 300 km 2 to 110, 000 km 2 Galford et al. In Prep

5. 2001-2006 Cropland expansion Galford et al. In Prep 2.5 x10 6 ha in cerrado 0.9 x10 6 ha in cerradão 2.8 x10 6 ha in forest

6. Estimated Average Annual GHG Emissions from Expansion

7. Intensification is the change from single to double cropping patterns. We track cropping patterns within cropland areas. Single crops typical represent soy or rice. Double cropping entails two crops in a single wet season; generally, soy followed by corn, millet, or sorghum. 85% overall accuracy Galford et al. In Prep Validation data thanks to J.C. Brown and C. Stickler 20012006

8. 2001-2006 Cropland intensification Galford et al. In Prep 1.4 x 10 6 ha in cerrado 0.2 x 10 6 ha in cerradão 0.7 x 10 6 ha in forest

9. Estimated Annual Average Potential GHG Emissions Avoided by Intensification Galford et al. In Prep

10. Considering the human dimension What explains patterns of expansion & intensification? – How do social factors such as land tenure differences affect the choice between agricultural intensification and forest conversion? – How strongly are decisions affected by natural landscape features? Potential of annual monitoring (crop area/type)

11. Conclusions Remote sensing: a tool for detecting croplands Impacts of expansion >> intensification – Trajectories of land-use change are important – Long- and short-term dynamics yet to play out? Spatially explicit modeling with TEM Funding support: NASA/LBA & NASA/ESS Graduate Fellowship Program Thanks to colleagues, J.C. Brown, C. Stickler, F. Mello