1. Inspiring or Depressing? Realism Reading of John J. Mearsheimer I36045 IR Xie Di

2. Questions Why did Mearsheimer claim that we would soon miss the Cold War? Why was (still is) he skeptical of institutions? Do you think Mearsheimer’s view is still valid?

3. 1. Why did Mearsheimer claim that we would soon miss the Cold War? a faithful realist “We may, however, wake up one day lamenting the loss of the order that the Cold War gave to the anarchy of international relations.” he wrote, “Europe is reverting to a state system that created powerful incentives for aggression in the past.. My argument is that the prospect of major crises, even wars, in Europe is likely to increase dramatically now that the Cold War is receding into history. ”

4. What changes? International configuration: Bipolar world → Multipolar world

5. Bipolar vs. Multipolar The bipolar distribution of military power on the Continent; the rough military equality between the polar powers, the United States and the Soviet Union; “deterrence” is difficult to maintain in a multipolar state system.

6. Nuclear Weapon: a powerful force for peace? 1) The more horrible the prospect of war, the less likely war is 2) It’s more useful for self-defense than for aggression. "Defenders usually value their freedom more than aggressors value new conquests" 3) It's moving power relations among states toward equality 4) holding nuclear weapon means less necessity of mass armies–on which “Hypernationalism” find fertile soil

7. 2. Why was he skeptical of institutions? From a realist's point of view: Survival Competition Self-help

8. The False Promise of International Institutions - by John J. Mearsheimer Relative gains “military might is significantly dependent on economic might.” Collective security? States are indeed self-interested “.. likely to remain on the sidelines if vital interests are not threatened.”

9. 3. Do you think Mearsheimer’s view is still valid? My title: Inspiring or Depressing?

10. 1) Not to be blindly optimistic about future 2) Always be careful about the “hypernationalism” 3) Develop the nuclear weapon's potential to become the means of maintaining peace 4) The teaching of honest national history is especially important

11. Questions remain unresolved: If “survival” the supreme national interest to which all political leaders must adhere, so there should be no limits to what actions a state can take in the name of necessity? Is self-help an inevitable consequence of the absence of a world government? Why institutions can only be concerning prosperity but peace and security between states also? How United Nations lasts so long until now, and isn’t it successfully keeps major war from happening so far? Why can’t peaceful negotiations through institutions become the new way to alter relations (seems they already are) since developed countries are no longer struggling from the "survival” level?

12. Sources John J. Mearsheimer, “The False Promise of International Institutions”, International Security 19-3 (Winter 1994/95). John J. Mearsheimer, “Why We Will Soon Miss the Cold War”, Atlantic Monthly Online, August 1990. Available at, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/foreign/mears h.htm.