1. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Warm Up Warm Up California Standards California Standards Lesson Presentation Lesson PresentationPreview

2. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Warm Up Use the table to find the probability of each event. 1. A or B occurring 2. C not occurring 3. A, D, or E occurring 0.494 0.742 0.588

3. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Review of Grade 6 SDAP3.2 Use data to estimate the probability of future events (e.g., batting averages or number of accidents per mile driven). Also covered: 6SDAP3.3 California Standards

4. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Vocabulary experimental probability

5. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability In experimental probability, the likelihood of an event is estimated by repeating an experiment many times and observing the number of times the event happens. That number is divided by the total number of trials. The more times the experiment is repeated, the more accurate the estimate is likely to be.

6. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws. Additional Example 1A: Estimating the Probability of an Event The probability of drawing a red marble is about 0.3, or 30%. probability  number of red marbles drawn total number of marbles drawn 15 50 = Estimate the probability of drawing a red marble. OutcomeGreenRedYellow Draw121523

7. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws. Additional Example 1B: Estimating the Probability of an Event The probability of drawing a green marble is about 0.24, or 24%. probability  number of green marbles drawn total number of marbles drawn 12 50 = Estimate the probability of drawing a green marble. OutcomeGreenRedYellow Draw121523

8. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability A marble is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after fifty draws. Additional Example 1C: Estimating the Probability of an Event The probability of drawing a yellow marble is about 0.46, or 46%. probability  number of yellow marbles drawn total number of marbles drawn 23 50 = Estimate the probability of drawing a yellow marble. OutcomeGreenRedYellow Draw121523

9. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 100 draws. Check It Out! Example 1A The probability of drawing a purple ticket is about 0.55, or 55%. probability  number of purple tickets drawn total number of tickets drawn 55 100 = Estimate the probability of drawing a purple ticket. OutcomePurpleOrangeBrown Draw552223

10. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 100 draws. Check It Out! Example 1B The probability of drawing a brown ticket is about 0.23, or 23%. probability  number of brown tickets drawn total number of tickets drawn 23 100 = Estimate the probability of drawing a brown ticket. OutcomePurpleOrangeBrown Draw552223

11. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability A ticket is randomly drawn out of a bag and then replaced. The table shows the results after 1000 draws. Check It Out! Example 1C The probability of drawing a blue ticket is about 0.112, or 11.2%. probability  number of blue tickets drawn total number of tickets drawn 112 1000 = Estimate the probability of drawing a blue ticket. OutcomeRedBluePink Draw285112603

12. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Knights will win their next game. Additional Example 2: Sports Application

13. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Additional Example 2 Continued The Knights are more likely to win their next game than the Huskies. number of wins total number of games probability probability for a Huskies win  138 79  0.572 146 probability for a Knights win  90  0.616

14. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Use the table to compare the probability that the Huskies will win their next game with the probability that the Cougars will win their next game. Check It Out! Example 2

15. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Check It Out! Example 2 Continued The Huskies are more likely to win their next game than the Cougars. number of wins total number of games probability probability for a Huskies win  138 79  0.572 150 probability for a Cougars win  85  0.567

16. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Lesson Quiz: Part I 1. Of 425,234 seniors were enrolled in a math course. Estimate the probability that a randomly selected senior is enrolled in a math course. 2. Mason made a hit 34 out of his last 125 times at bat. Estimate the probability that he will make a hit his next time at bat. 0.27, or 27% 0.55, or 55%

17. Holt CA Course 1 11-6 Experimental Probability Lesson Quiz: Part II 3. Christina polled 176 students about their favorite yogurt flavor. 63 students ’ favorite flavor is vanilla and 40 students ’ favorite flavor is strawberry. Compare the probability of a student ’ s liking vanilla to a student ’ s liking strawberry. about 36% to about 23%