1. Traffic model for the Bonn Agreement Area BE-AWARE II Final Conference, 18-19 November, Ronneby, Sweden Co-financed by the EU – Civil Protection Financial Instrument

2. Background Task H Traffic Analysis Overall objective: To develop a model that describes the traffic in the area This is later applied with the cargo model to simulate accidents and consequences – Accident type – Location – Spill size – Spill substance Basis: AIS data IHS Fairplay (representative ships) Traffic Analysis

3. Background Process AIS data Definition of route net Idealised traffic Obstacles to be treated Areas with no/low AIS coverage or missing data – Middle of North Sea – German Bight – Other fallouts Future traffic Traffic Analysis

4. Background Project area and sub regions: 1: Atlantic 2: Northern North Sea 3: Eastern North Sea 4: Southern North Sea 5: Channel Traffic Analysis

5. AIS basis - Period 2011 - The true traffic - Local differences Traffic Analysis

6. AIS basis - Clear routes are used -TSS -Reefs/shallow water -Vessels take the shortest journey Traffic Analysis

7. AIS basis - Various vessel types Traffic Analysis No offshore or fishing Only offshore

8. Route Net 10000 routes Traffic Analysis

9. Idealised traffic Traffic Analysis

10. Idealised traffic For every route -Representative vessels using route -Mean value -Standard deviation Traffic Analysis

11. Idealised traffic What do we want do capture: Actual movement of vessels Harbour to harbour combinations Traffic Analysis

12. Areas with low coverage North sea and German Bight General approch Closure of gaps of up to 36 hours except vessels at the area around Kiel Canal Closure of all <23 hours gaps Manuel correction of the number of vessels on the routes in the German Bight based on Accseas project traffic. Traffic Analysis

13. Areas with low coverage Procedure The individual vessel is followed Routes are closed by algorithm finding the shortest path Routes begins and ends at harbours Traffic Analysis

14. Idealised traffic What do we have in our traffic model: Actual movement of vessels Harbour to harbour combinations For every route: -Vessel information -Type -Size -Distribution -From/to port Traffic Analysis

15. Idealised traffic How do we apply this later: Traffic Analysis + Traffic modelCargo model

16. Route Net 2020 Changes caused by: Windfarms New TSS Traffic Analysis

17. Route Net 2020 Changes caused by: Windfarms New TSS Traffic Analysis

18. Idealised traffic 2020 Process Make new route net Identify ships affected Identify alternative route + Future traffic changes Changes in the size of vessels Changes in the number of voyages Traffic Analysis

19. Idealised traffic 2020 Routes affected by wind parks New TSS routes implemented New tracks have been found for all vessels affected Prognosis implemented by adjusting 2011 traffic. Traffic Analysis

20. Methodology Summary and conclusion Traffic based on current situation 2011 Best estimate of future traffic based on adjusted tracks, sizes, voyages of vessels Port-to-port cargo model a challenge – but possible Connected with the other models (Cargo/Pilotage/other RRM) Input for the accident model

21. Questions? Thank you beaware.bonnagreement.org