1. Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant Forecast System Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina Tsidulko Tom Black, Henry Juang, Zavisa Janjic, Mark Iredell, Geoff DiMego NWS/NCEP/EMC Ken Schere and Rohit Mathur NOAA/OAR/ARL & EPA Georg Grell and Steve Peckham NOAA/OAR/GSD Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder and Ariel Stein NOAA/OAR/ARL Arlindo DaSilva, Mian Chin NASA/GSFC …

2. Current Offline AQ Forecast Systems PollutantRegionModelEmissions Anthropogenic Chemistry (O3, experimental aerosols) CONUS, O-CONUS NAM-CMAQ (12 km, 48 hrs) NEI 2005 inventories extrapolated for current year Wild-fire smoke (visible smoke and total concentrations) CONUS, O-CONUS NAM-HYSPLIT (15 km, 48 hrs) NESDIS HMS fire locations USFS BlueSkies emissions Dust (Developmental PM, 5 size bins) GlobalGFS-GOCART (100 km, 48 hours) 1 degree land use Volcanic Ash (Visible ash plume) VAAC -DC North American Regions GFS-HYSPLITNESDIS volcano location and release height

3. GEOS-GOCART Analysis AOD GFS-GOCART Dust concentration forecast

4. In-Line Chem Advantages Consistent: all transport done by meteorology model –Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no horizontal and vertical interpolation) –Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale transport –No interpolation in time Easy handling (Data management) Most efficient (overall CPU costs)

5. Earth Systems Modeling Framework at NCEP NOAA is moving toward placing modeling systems under the multi-agency unified Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF) The NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Model (NAM) NMM dynamics and physics have been incorporated into ESMF  National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Code simplicity and clarity are essential so that most users can understand code with relative ease

6. ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Application Driver ESMF* Compliant Global Component System (Iredell/Lu) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) GOCART aerosol chemistry, smoke, dust, ash Physics (1,2,3) Coupler Dynamics (1,2) GFS Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a reduced Gaussian grid model native Lorenz grid. GFS currently requires ESMF 3.0.1; can evolve to 3.1. GFS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, potentially convective transport, probably not scavenging. AM

7. ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Application Driver ESMF* Compliant Regional System: NEMS Inline coupling * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC) CB05/AERO-4 anthro, HYSPLIT/GOCART smoke, dust, ash emissions NMMB Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a rotated lat-lon Arakowa B staggerd grid. NEMS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, convective transport & scavenging, deposition. Physics (1,2,3) Dynamics (1,2) AM

8. Planned Initial NEMS Pollutant Options Gas-PhaseAerosols Global Anthro: EDGAR, GEIA Simplified NO3 GOCART/HYSPLIT Anthro, dust, smoke, sea-salt,volcanic ash Regional Anthro: SMOKE w/ BEIS CB05, WCHEM AERO-4 anthro Natural: USFS/HMS Wild fires, Volcanic ash GOCART/ HYSPLIT smoke, dust, ash Pollutant Component Emissions Component

9. 2.5 days5 days NMM-B Global InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic NCEP/EMC

10. 48 96 NMM-B Regional InlineTracer Test Zavis Janjic & Youhua Tang, NCEP/EMC

11. NEMS Pollutant Plans Loose Coupled: Stand alone chemistry/dispersion model (1-2 years) –Put CMAQ/GOCART/HYSPLIT into ESMF compatible format –Write interface between atm-chem models as a separate component –NOAH LSM exports to drive chemistry biogenic emission & dry deposition –Radiation parameters exports to chemistry for photolysis computations Tight Concurrent Coupled: Unified met-dispersion physics/dynamics (3-5 years) –Test tracer capability for mass consistency (NMMB, GFS) –Create AQ I/O Interface: anthropogenic sources, smoke, ash –Create independent CB05/AERO/GOCART/HYSPLIT subroutines (1-D) Pollutant processes: chemistry if any, wet & dry deposition –Transfer species to dynamics coupler for advection, horizontal diffusion –Transfer species to physics: turbulence, convection routines for turbulent and convective mixing –Transfer aerosol output to radiation and cloud microphysics to allow aerosol feedbacks on meteorology

12. Potential Additional Volcanic Ash Focus & Data Needs USGS volcano types to improve emission rates Improved plume height estimation –Hysplit ensemble minimization – satellite estimates Leverage on-going global aerosol data assimilation developments for Volcanic ash NCEP GSI 3-D VAR aerosol optical depth assimilation system Phase I: Assimilate MODIS, GOES, OMI AOD products Phase II:AVHRR, MISR, etc and direct radiance assimilation

13. Operational Upgrades Development phase (0-2 years) –Complete model development within NEMS with OAR & NASA and other research collaborators –Begin retrospective testing to compare results with current operational systems Experimental testing ( 2-3 years) –Transition initial NEMS codes to NWS/NCEP operational center –Provide and evaluate real-time experimental forecasts to focus group of interested forecasters Operational Implementation (3 years) –Modified model configuration based on subjective and quantitative evaluations w/ current operational system –Additional resources made available to support operational forecast timing requirements –Distribution through current VAAC pathways and possibly NDGD and AWIPS