1. Three-State Air Quality Study (3SAQS) Three-State Data Warehouse (3SDW) 3SAQS Phase II -- Task 2 2011 Source Apportionment Modeling Study Design University of North Carolina (UNC-IE) ENVIRON International Corporation (ENVIRON) February 25, 2015

2. 2 3SAQS Task 2: Source Apportionment Modeling using 2011 platform Objective: To quantify emissions source/receptor relationships in the three-state region 2a: Source Apportionment (SA) Design Document – Decisions today will be used to prepare design document in March 2b: Geographic SA – Contributions of Western State’s anthropogenic emissions to ozone, PM, visibility and deposition 2c: Emissions Sector SA – Oil and Gas, EGUs, mobile etc. 2d: Detailed SA in Three-State 4 km domain – Sub-state Basins, Source Categories, etc. 2e: SA Website Visualization Tool 2d: CMAQ detailed SA in Three-State 4 km domain

3. 3 2011a2 CAMx Platform 36 km CONUS; 12 km WESTUS; 4 km 3SAQS 2011 NEIv1 emissions; 3SAQS O&G BCs from GEOS-Chem

4. 4 Subtask 2b: Geographic SA Contributions of anthropogenic emissions from western states to ozone, PM, visibility and deposition using 2011a2 CAMx platform – Obtain contributions for which western states? – Which source categories to model separate SA? – How to post-process for useful displays? – Relationship with WestJumpAQMS 2008 SA? – Relationship with EPA Jan 2015 Transport 2018_2011 SA?

5. WestJumpAQMS Geographic SA CAM V5.4.1 – CB05 2008 Base Case EI Ozone (APCA) SA – 36/12 km CONUS/WESTUS PM (PSAT) SA – 36 km domain – SO4, NO3/NH4, Primary PM – No SOA – Can post-process CAMx SOA results to get mainly Anthro. (SOAA) and Biogenic (SOAB) SOA Fires contribute to both 21 Source Regions: – 17 Western States, EUSA, Mex, Can, Off-shore 5 Source Categories: – Natural, Anthro., 3-fires (WF, Rx, Ag) 107 Source Groups (21x5+2)

6. Post-Processing WJ Geographic SA CSAPR-type analysis: – Use MATS to estimate contributions of upwind state anthropogenic emissions on 2008 ozone and PM2.5 Design Values State contributions to DMA8 ozone and PM2.5 Spatial maps of state contributions State contributions to visibility – Controllable = Anthro+Rx+Ag 6

7. EPA Jan 22, 2015 Ozone Transport Analysis Contribution Categories: – Anthro. NOx and VOC from each State – Anthro from All Tribes – Biogenic (CONUS) – Boundary Conditions – Other (WF, RX, Ag, Off- Shore, Can and Mex) CAMx v6.1 – 2011v1 Platform -- 12 km CONUS domain APCA Ozone SA – 2018 Future Year Emissions Scenario 7

8. 8 EPA Jan 22, 2015 Ozone Transport Analysis Project current (2009-2013) ozone AvgDV and MaxDV to 2018 using new MATS (Dec 2014) – Nonattainment and Maintenance Monitors Determine contribution of Upwind State’s Anthro. Emissions to downwind monitors – Unlike CSAPR and WJ, MATS approach not used – If Upwind State contributes ≥ 1% NAAQS 2018 DV  Significant Contribution Outside of CA, Chatfield, Colorado only nonattainment/maintenance monitor in west – Significant contributing States to Chatfield: CA (1.17 ppb); UT (0.92 ppb); and WY (1.29 ppb) 8

9. 2b: Proposed 3SAQS Geographic SA CAMx V6.2 – 2011a2 36/12 km Platform 2011a Emissions APCA Ozone and PSAT PM – SO4, NO3/NH4, Primary PM – No SOA (SOAA & SOAB) 17 West States, Can, Mex and Off-Shore (like WJ) – Add neighbor states (LA- MN)? 5 Source Categories: – 3-Fires (WF, Rx, Ag) – Natural (Biogenic, WBD, LNOx, SS) – Anthropogenic

10. 10 2b: 3SAQS Geographic SA Analysis Regional Haze Rule (RHR) metrics analysis – Current analyzing WJ 2007 SA this way – Investigate modeled and monitored metrics related to reducing manmade visibility impairment CSAPR-type ozone & PM analysis Spatial maps of state contributions Web-based visualization tool display state contributions: – DMA8 ozone, 24-hour PM2.5 and visibility for all days – Annual PM2.5 and S/N deposition 10

11. Subtask 2c: Emissions Section SA Obtain source contributions from major Source Categories at the National-scale WestJumpAQMS Source 2008 Base Case SA: – APCA Ozone 36/12/4 km – PSAT (No SOA) 36/12 km – 6 Source Categories: Natural (Bio, WBD, LNIX, SS); Oil and Gas; Points; Mobile; All Fires (WF+Rx+Ag); and Remainder – 5 Source Regions (CO, NM, UT, WY)

12. 12 2c: 3SAQS Proposed Source Sector SA CAMx V6.2 -- 2011a2/2011b – 36/12 km domains APCA Ozone and PSAT (SO4, NO3/NH4, PM) Seven Source Categories: – Natural (Bio, WBD, LNOx, SS) – Upstream Oil and Gas – All Fires (WF+Rx+Ag) – On-Road Mobile – Non-Road Mobile – Points – Remainder 5 Source Regions 12

13. Subtask 2d: Detailed 4 km Domain SA CAMx v6.2 APCA/PSAT 4 km BCs from CAMx 2011a2 36/12/4 km simulation Source Regions -- Partial States: – e.g., Basins Source Categories: – EGU Point; Other Point; On-Road; Non-Road; Different O&G source types, Natural, Other Anthro

14. 14 Subtask 2f: CMAQ SA Configure CMAQ exactly the same as CAMx Subtask 2d Detailed 4 km SA modeling – Have not run CMAQ SA tool yet so don’t know all of the features and options Compare CAMx and CMAQ SA results Develop recommendations for SA modeling using CAMx and CMAQ 14

15. 15 Subtask 2e: Web-based SA Visualization Tool Have developed prototype using WestJumpAQMS 2008 Geographic SA results – Pie Charts for 10 Highest DMA8 ozone days – CSU working to integrate in DW For 3SAQS Web Tool will implement all days – Include MPE and CONUS BC contribution – More drill down capability

16. 16 Next Steps Task 2 SA Modeling Draft Task 2 SA Study Design Plan in mid-March – 3SAQS TechCom comments by end of March Start 2011 Geographic SA modeling in March – Proposed same configuration as WestJumpAQMS 2011a2 36/12 km; APCA and PSAT (SO4, NO3/NH4,PM) 2011a Base Case emissions 21 SrcGrps: 17 western states; EUSA; Can; Mex; Off-Shore 5 SrcCats: Natural 3-Fires (WF, Rx, Ag); Anthropogenic – Need 3SAQS TechCom comments now