1. Liberals, Populists and Social Movements: What’s going on in Latin America? Duncan Green Head of Research, Oxfam ODA ‘Change of Skin’ seminar April 2006

2. Economic Context Macroeconomic stability with low growth Persistent poverty and inequality Commodity price boom

3. Political Context Consolidation of representative democracy But disillusion with economic results fuels rise of anti-politics and ‘archaic utopias’ End of Cold War frees left from polarization 1990s decentralization provides battleground for social movements

4. Political and Economic Constraints Most left governments are coalitions Low savings and investment lead to dependence on foreign capital Free trade agreements constrain trade and investment policies, especially for Mexico Absence of clear alternative model

5. 3 currents of ‘Left’ Liberal-Republican –Archetypes: Chile, Uruguay Traditional Populism –Archetypes: Venezuela, Peru Social Movement-based Left –Archetypes: Morales, left of PT

6. An attempted typology CountryLib-RepublicanPopulistGrassroots Democracy Bachelet, ChileX Vazquez, UrugyX X Lula, BrazilX X Kirchner, ArgtnaXX Chavez, Venzla X Lopez Obrador, Mexico X Humala, Peru X Morales, Bolivia?XX

7. Liberal Republicans Reconstructed ‘hard left’ – built on old CP and guerrilla traditions, now accept core parts of Washington Consensus e.g. markets, macroeconomic stability, low inflation ‘bending and moulding’ neoliberalism, rather than paradigm shift Tensions within parties (eg PT) Debates similar to European social democratic left

8. Traditional Populists Often military/golpista background with limited commitment to democratic forms (Chavez, Humala) Personalism + weak institutions ‘bizarre blend of inclusion of the excluded, macroeconomic folly, and political staying power’ (Castaneda) Links to commodity prices – the Petropopulists. Distinctively Latin American

9. Is Morales the face of a new, social movement-based left? Six years of sustained social uprising starting in ‘water wars’ of Cochabamba MAS born out of rural trade unions (not the other way around) Indigenista Key steps: gas nationalization + constituent assembly Social Movement and Trade Union leaders in the cabinet

10. Possible economic policy: ‘Trade Treaty of the Peoples’, April 2006 Proposed by Evo Morales as ‘a response to the failed neo-liberal model’ Limits and regulates the rights of foreign investors and multinationals so that they serve the purpose of national productive development. Industrial policy and selective protection of areas of the internal market (including agriculture) which are necessary to preserve the most vulnerable sectors of society. Essential services must depend on public companies as exclusive providers, regulated by the State. For more see http://www.boliviasoberana.org/blog/_archives/20 06/4/13/1896922.html http://www.boliviasoberana.org/blog/_archives/20 06/4/13/1896922.html

11. Questions for the future Can other liberal-republicans replicate Chile’s economic success? If not, what happens? What happens to the populists if commodity prices slump? Will Morales build something new, or be a repeat of Ecuador? When/how can a new economic paradigm emerge e.g. developmental state on East Asian lines?