1. Oleh : Arwan Apriyono Paulus Setyo Nugroho

2. I NTRODUCTION Decision making methods -NPV/NPW -ROR/IRR -B/C Fundamental knowledge -Value of money (PV, FV, AV) -Interest (Rate, Compound) -Cost and Benefit -Cast flow diagram Infuence Factor -Inflation & Deflation -Tax -Depreciation Finansial Decision Making

3. the internal rate of return is the interest rate at which the benefits are equivalent to the costs or the present worth (PW) is 0 PW of benefits - PW of costs = 0 PW of benefits/PW of Cost = 1 Net Present Worth = 0 EUAB- EUAC=0 PW of costs = PW of benefits Definition

4. 1. Instead of lending money, we might invest $8200 in a machine tool with a 5-year useful life and an equivalent uniform annual benefit of $2000. An appropriate question is,What rate of return would we receive on this investment? Example $8200 $2000

5. Then look at the compound interest tables for the value of i where (PIA, i, 5) = 4.1; If no tabulated value of i gives this value, we will then find values on either side of the desired value (4.1) and interpolate to find the IRR. Example

6. In this example, no interpolation is needed because the internal rate of return is exactly 7%. If IRR is not exactly the value (7%), we need to take interpolation linear as example bellow Example

7. With i = 6%  (P/A,i,5) = 4.212 With i = 8%  (P/A,i,5) = 3.993 Example 8 % 6 % 3.9934.2124.1 ?

8. 2. An investment resulted in the following cash flow. Compute the rate of return. Example $700 $250 $175 $325 $100

9. In this situation,we have two different interest factors in the equation.We wilL not be able to solve it as easily as Example 1. Since there is no convenient direct method of solution,we will solve the equation by trial and error. Example

10. Try i = 5% first  EUAB- EUAC = 0  100 + 75(A/G, 5%, 4) - 700 (A/P, 5%, 4) = 0  100 + 75(1.439) – 700 (0.2820) = 0  EUAB – EUAC = 208 -197 = + 11 The EUAC is too low. If the interest rate is increased, EUAC will increase. Try i =8%: Example

11. i = 8%  EUAB- EUAC = 0  100 + 75(A/G, 8%, 4) - 700 (A/P, 8%, 4) = 0  100 + 75(1.404) – 700 (0.3049) = 0  EUAB – EUAC = 205 -211 = - 6 This time the EUAC is too large. We see that the true rate of return is between 5% and 8%. Try i =7%: Example

12. i = 7%  EUAB- EUAC = 0  100 + 75(A/G, 7%, 4) - 700 (A/P, 7%, 4) = 0  100 + 75(1.416) – 700 (0.2952) = 0  EUAB – EUAC = 206 -206 = 0 The IRR is 7% Example

13. Rate of return analysis is probably the most frequently used exact analysis technique in industry. The advantage to rate of return analysis is no interest rate introduced into the calculation, instead we compute a rate of return from the cash flow. Whereas In both present worth and annual cash flow calculations, one must select an interest rate for use in the calculations and this may be a difficult and controversial item. To decide how to proceed, the calculated rate of return is compared with a preselected minimum attractive rate of return, or simply MARR. This is the same value of i used for present worth and annual cash flow analysis. If the value of ROR is higher than the MARR, then the project is good. Advantage of ROR

14. When there are two alternatives, rate of return analysis is performed by computing the incremental rate of return (  IRR) on the difference between the alternatives. Since we want to look at increments of investment the cash flow for the difference between the alternatives is computed by taking the higher initial-cost alternative minus the lower initial cost alternative. Two-Alternative Situation :   IRR ≥ MARR  Choose the higher-cost alternative   IRR < MARR  Choose the lower-cost alternative Incremental Analysis

15. STEP OF INCREMENTAL ANALYSIS Step 1: Set up the cash flow of all alternatives in ascending order of initial investment. Step 2: Discard all alternatives that have an ROR less than the MARR. This step can be ignored but performing it will save time on the rest of the steps. Step 3: Construct the cash flow of the difference of alternatives two by two, starting from the two with the lowest ROR. Always subtract the one with lowest initial investment from the one with the higher initial investment. A check on this step is that the cash flow at time zero of the differential should always be negative. If the ROR of the differential is higher than the MARR, the alternative with the higher initial investment is preferred, otherwise the one with the lower initial investment is preferred. Next we compare the preferred alternative with the next alternative on the list in the same manner. Incremental Analysis

16. 1. An investor is offered two investment opportunities. Project A is an investment in frozen yogurt equipment that requires an initial investment of $40,000 with a life of three years. Its annual operating costs and annual incomes are presented in table A. The equipment can be sold at the end of year 3 at a resale value of $5,000. Sample Incremental Analysis

17. The second opportunity is purchase of printing equipment with an initial investment of $200,000. Annual operating costs and annual incomes are presented in table B. The equipment can be sold at the end of year 5 at a resale value of $20,000. If the MARR for this investor is 10%, which project should he invest in? Ignore tax and depreciation. Sample Incremental Analysis

18. YearABB-A 0-40 k -200 k -160 k 125 k10 k110 k00 -15 k- 100 k 233 k15 k135 k25 k10 k -18 k-110 k 345 k + 5 k30 k170 k55 k25 k -20 k- 115 k 4210 k90 k -120 k 5230k+20 k120 k -130 k Langkah pengerjaan: 1.Hitung IRR project A; apakah layak? Lebih dari MARR ? 2.Hitung IRR project B; apakah layak? Lebih dari MARR ? 3.Tuliskan incremental analysis dari project yang layak Gambarkan CFD dari tabel di atas 4. Hitung IRR of incremental CFD; IRR > MARR ? Jika ya ambil yang investasi lebih besar, jika IRR < MARR ambil yang investasi lebih kecil

19. STEP 1 Calculate ROR of alternative A NPW = -40000+10000(P/F,i*,1)+15000(P/F,i*,2)+30000(P/F,i*,3) By trial and error, i* = 14.7% i* > 10% (Acceptable) Sample Incremental Analysis

20. STEP 2 Calculate ROR of Alternative B Calculating ROR as we did in the case of project A we obtain ROR=11% > 10 % (acceptable) Sample Incremental Analysis

21. STEP 3 Take Incremental Analysis We have to use the incremental cash flow diagram, i.e.,. B-A. In calculating ROR, we do not have to equalize the lives. That makes it easier. The incremental cash flow is Sample Incremental Analysis

22. STEP 4 Calculate ROR of Incremental Cash Flow Diagram The ROR for this incremental cash flow is calculated as follows: By trial and error, i* = 10.5. Therefore, i*>10%; hence, project B is preferred. This means it is better to invest all the available money ($200,000) in project B at 10.5% rather than invest $40,000 in project A and the rest at MARR of 10%. Sample Incremental Analysis