1. Towards Electronic Journals Carol Tenopir ctenopir@utk.edu And Donald W. King dwking@umich.edu

2. Background Goldspiel Award from SLA Three decades of King Research studies Data and information updated 1995-2000

3. Carol Tenopir and Donald W. King. Towards Electronic Journals: Realities for Scientists, Librarians, and Publishers. Washington, D.C.: Special Libraries Association, 2000.

4. Audiences Librarians Funders Scientists/Researchers Publishers

5. Goals for Librarians Discuss e-publishing issues with your boss Identify true costs of communication Predict what to expect with electronic journals Share information about realities of e-journals Know how to better negotiate licenses, provide print or e-journals, subscribe or pay-per-use

6. Replace: With: Hype---------------------  Data Hysteria-----------------  History Myths-------------------  Realities

7. Questions Answered: Why have journal prices increased so much? Are publishers gouging libraries? Will all print journals be replaced with electronic journals? Will electronic journals cost less (or be free)? When does it make sense to subscribe to a print or electronic journal and when does it make sense to pay-per-use? What are the most important roles for librarians in a digital world?

8. Are scientific scholarly journals worth saving? Scientists rely more on journals than other sources On average, scientists may have increased their reading of journal articles Readings per article appear to have increased Information is found to be important for many purposes of reading Value of information is high Scientists whose work has been recognized tend to read more

9. Determine all: –Functions –Participants –Activities –Input Resources –Output Quantities Scholarly Journals Examined from a Systems Perspective

10. Total Cost (excluding $’s exchanged) 1977 $16 billion (1998 $) 1998 $45 billion

11. Average Cost per Reading 1977$65 1998$60

12. The Question!!! Why have average prices risen by a factor of nearly 10 times over a period of time in which the relative cost of publishing has actually decreased?

13. Why have journal prices spiraled upward? Size and Inflation—56% Drop in personal subscriptions Addition of new, low-circulation journals— 17% McCabe thesis High profit/net revenue

14. Average Number of Personal Subscriptions to Scholarly Journals

15. Proportion of Readings of Scholarly Scientific Articles

16. What factors affect demand? Price Journal attributes Availability & relative cost of alternatives Combinations of distribution means and media are finding a niche

17. Comparative Costs Break-Even Point Individual Subscription Library Use

18. Cost of Subscribing vs. Library Use Individual Price ($) Break-Even Point (Readings) $10012.9 $15018.7 $25030.3 $50059.4 $1,000117.6

19. Individual Subscription Prices Individual Price Proportion of Journals to which Scientists can Economically Subscribe $10015.0 $1508.7 $2503.2 $5000.7 $1,000<0.1 Source: King, et al. surveys 1993-1998

20. Library Owning vs. Borrowing Article Copies Break-Even Point ILL/Document Delivery Institutional Subscriptions

21. Subscribing vs. Separate Copies Institutional PriceBreak-Even Point in Number of Readings $1009.5 $15012.1 $25017.3 $50030.4 $1,00056.5

22. Library Subscription Prices Institutional Price Proportion of Journals to which Libraries can Economically Subscribe $10088.9 $15084.6 $25078.2 $50065.5 $1,00049.0

23. Purchasing vs. Document Delivery Document Delivery Fees Journal Prices $0$5$10$20$30 $10017.411.88.96.04.5 $25031.921.516.210.98.2 $50055.937.828.519.114.4 $1,000104.070.253.035.626.8

24. Electronic Journals vs. Separate Copies Article Access Fees Subscription Price ($) $0$5$10$20$30 $10019.610.47.14.33.1 $25046.024.416.710.27.3 $50090.147.832.619.914.3 $1,000178.394.864.539.428.3

25. Number of Separate Copies of Articles Received by Scientists 19771993-1998 ILL/Document Delivery 4 million>40 million Other39 million>60 million 43 million>100 million

26. Some alternative pricing policies Site licenses Differential pricing Unit pricing No magic bullet

27. Where Do We Go From Here? New and specialized journals will be electronic Journal availability in print and electronic Impact of full-text databases Emphasis on accessibility of information Time is valuable