1. LECTURE 2 : Malthus, Boserup and Meadows Thrust of the lecture Postulation about the relationship between population & resources Malthus attempts to depict a ‘grave’ world in the future Boserup optimistic about the future, technology helps to increase the volume of resources Meadows projects a decline in industrial output and increase in the level of population in the future

2. Relationships between Population and Resources Variable situations Ro P E 1 L L H 2 L H H 3 L H L With low resources, high population and high expectation, maladjustment sets in readily as shown in situation 2.

3. Thomas Malthus ( 1766-1834) A British economist who hypothesized that the supply of food cannot keep pace with the increase in population He used the ‘ Law of Diminishing Returns’ to explain this economic principle In his article ‘ Principle of Population’ he described that population increases geometrically while food supply increase only in an arithmetic ratio. This could happen if the population is unchecked He showed that gluts of unsold goods could arise from ‘ under-consumption’.- challenged the doctrine that supply creates its own demand.

4. Essence of Malthus’s theory Increase in population------> increase in food demand Less food available Increase in Mortality Decrease in fertility Decrease in pop growth

5. Malthus Theory He used the food supply ceiling to explain the concept of carrying capacity. Total Pop. Time Food supply ceiling Population crisis Maladjustment occurs X Y

6. Concept of Carrying Capacity by Malthus Carrying capacity(Cc) is used to denote the capability of the environment to support a given population based on the available resources so that an acceptable SOL can prevail in the society Beyond Cc, society will not function properly - there will exist social and economic deficiencies. A cyclical pattern of pop growth takes place Pop and Ro will adjust themselves if either one of them change to create an equilibrium situation.

7. Criticism to Malthus Theory He underestimated the pace of economic development that can create economic wealth The widespread use of birth control methods check on pop. Growth Emigration as a solution to reduce PPR in some areas Economic development creates low fertility rate He ignored the use of technology that can increase resource base of the nation

8. Boserup Theory Boserup had an optimistic view of the world She saw population growth not a problem but a ‘ blessing in disguise’ as population growth stimulates innovation ‘ Necessity is the mother of invention’- mankind will think of ways to improve the economic situations She researched on the food production and population in a subsistence agricultural economy A great believer of modern farming techniques can alleviate hunger the world over

9. Boserup theory in essence Increase in Population Increase in demand for food Improved technologies( increase in food ss) Population increase unchecked

10. Criticism of Boserup’s Theory Considered only carbohydrate food as the measurement for self-sufficiency in food in-take. The impact of physical factors like severe drought that can reduce food production is not taken into consideration She did consider time as a factor in agricultural innovations The economic principle does not consider the advent of global economy to the given society- possibility of emigration to relieve PPR was never mentioned.

11. Meadow’s Limits To Growth The model attempts to show a pessimistic outlook of the future world The theory encapsulates the idea that resources are fixed and that technology cannot increase Ro forever. Industrial output and resource utilization leads to the environmental destruction and pollution This has severe repercussion to the community - productivity will be severely affected as resources deplete

12. Limits to growth Model High Low Time 1900 2100 resources pop pollution food

13. What the theory encapsulates In the early 1900, population grows steadily and food production grows faster than pop. After 2000, population grows geometrically while food supply at arithmetical rate The depletion of resources is due to an increase in the industrial development Pollution level will increase indefinitely that will mar the environment A check on population will occur as pollution level increases and sharp decline in the resource base of a country occurs

14. Criticism of Limits to Growth Model Ignore that social changes that are taking place can reduce population growth- fertility declines due to industrialization and urbanization Economic changes and efficient use of resources can avert this situation Technology can be used to make an efficient use of resources

15. Estimation of the World Resources ELDC will have to increase 4x their food supply by 2000 The world’s food supply must increase 3 x in the future Water and energy resources will be in near depletion due to pollution and abuse of resources Other raw material, land and basic amenities will be in short supply The world governments must think of ways to increase food production and efficient use of resources to avert the worst scenario as depicted by Meadows.