1. 2013 Water Quality Assessment Update Ed Sherwood Tampa Bay Estuary Program 263 13 th Ave. South St. Petersburg, FL 33701

2. Annual Decision Support Process Annual report card for Tampa Bay Annual report card for Tampa Bay Specific to each of the 4 major bay segments Specific to each of the 4 major bay segments Provides for adaptive management of a sentinel estuarine indicator (seagrass) Provides for adaptive management of a sentinel estuarine indicator (seagrass) Reduce Nitrogen NitrogenLoadsReduce Chloro- Chloro-phyll IncreaseWaterClarity IncreaseSea-grassCover

3. FDEP Recognized Site Specific Thresholds for Chlorophyll-a to Maintain Tampa Bay Reasonable Assurance Hillsborough Bay:15.0 ug/L Hillsborough Bay:15.0 ug/L Old Tampa Bay: 9.3 ug/L Old Tampa Bay: 9.3 ug/L Middle Tampa Bay: 8.5 ug/L Middle Tampa Bay: 8.5 ug/L Lower Tampa Bay: 5.1 ug/L Lower Tampa Bay: 5.1 ug/L If any one bay segment exceeds these values in 2 straight years, then additional compliance assessment steps are required by the TBNMC and TBEP.

4. Bay Segment Meeting FDEP Threshold? Bay Segment Chlorophyll-a(ug/L) 2013Average FDEP RA Thresholds Old Tampa Bay 8.79.3 Hillsborough Bay 12.915.0 Middle Tampa Bay 6.88.5 Lower Tampa Bay 3.95.1 Year Old Tampa Bay Hills.Bay Mid. Tampa Bay Lower Tampa Bay 1975No Yes 1976No Yes 1977No 1978 Yes 1979No 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984Yes NoYes 1985No Yes 1986No Yes 1987NoYesNoYes 1988 1989NoYes 1990NoYes 1991 1992 1993 1994No 1995 Yes 1996 1997 1998No 1999Yes 2000 2001 2002 2003NoYes 2004NoYes 2005 No 2006Yes 2007 2008 2009NoYes 2010 2011NoYes 2012 2013

5. Chlorophyll-a

6. Summary of Results Water quality in Tampa Bay continues to be within management targets & regulatory thresholds; chlorophyll-a and water clarity conditions are supporting seagrass expansion in the 4 main bay segments. Water quality in Tampa Bay continues to be within management targets & regulatory thresholds; chlorophyll-a and water clarity conditions are supporting seagrass expansion in the 4 main bay segments. Seagrass acreage in Tampa Bay continues to increase, next update anticipated in early 2015. Seagrass acreage in Tampa Bay continues to increase, next update anticipated in early 2015. Work continues on developing the integrated model for OTB; 2012 RA Update Accepted by FDEP in April 2013 Work continues on developing the integrated model for OTB; 2012 RA Update Accepted by FDEP in April 2013

7. Questions?

8. Science-Based Assessment Rely on long-term ambient water quality stations sampled by EPCHC Rely on long-term ambient water quality stations sampled by EPCHC 45 fixed stations have been monitored since 1974 45 fixed stations have been monitored since 1974 Annual averages developed from chlorophyll-a & secchi disk depth measurements Annual averages developed from chlorophyll-a & secchi disk depth measurements

9. Management Framework Bay segment annual average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and water clarityBay segment annual average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and water clarity Results of each comparison placed into decision matrix frameworkResults of each comparison placed into decision matrix framework Overall management response determined for each bay segmentOverall management response determined for each bay segmentGreen “Stay the course;” partners continue with planned projects to implement the CCMP. Data summary and reporting via the Baywide Environmental Monitoring Report and annual assessment and progress reports. Yellow TAC and Management Board on caution alert; review monitoring data and loading estimates; attempt to identify causes of target exceedences; TAC report to Management Board on findings and recommended responses needed. Red TAC, Management and Policy Boards on alert; review and report by TAC to Management Board on recommended types of responses. Management and Policy Boards take appropriate actions to get the program back on track.

10. Light Attenuation

11. Year Old Tampa BayHills.Bay Mid. Tampa BayLowerTampaBay 1976Red Yellow 1977Red 1978 Yellow 1979Red 1980 1981 1982 1983 YellowRed 1984 GreenRedYellow 1985Red Yellow 1986RedYellowRedGreen 1987RedYellowRedGreen 1988YellowGreenYellowGreen 1989RedYellowRedYellow 1990RedGreenRedYellow 1991GreenYellow 1992 GreenYellow 1993 GreenYellow 1994 Red 1995 YellowRedYellow 1996 GreenYellowGreen 1997YellowGreenRedYellow 1998Red 1999YellowGreenYellow 2000Green Yellow 2001 GreenYellow 2002 Green 2003RedYellowGreenYellow 2004RedGreen Yellow 2005Green Yellow 2006Green 2007 2008YellowGreen Yellow 2009 Green 2010 2011RedGreenYellowGreen 2012 2013 BaySeg-mentChlorophyll-a(ug/L)Light Attenuation (m -1 ) ResultingManage-mentResponse2013TBEPTarget2013TBEPTarget OldTB8.7*8.50.570.83Green Hills.Bay12.913.20.991.58Green Mid.TB6.87.40.570.83Green LowerTB3.94.60.450.63Green 2013 Results *Less than a small magnitude exceedence

12. Additional Background Slides

13. 2012 & 2013 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

14. 2011 & 2012 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

15. 2010 & 2011 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

16. 2009 & 2010 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

17. 2008 & 2009 Chlorophyll-a Spatial Distribution

18. Questions?

19. Tampa Bay Chl-a (2007-2012) Significant Pyrodinium blooms occurred in the summer of 2008, 2009 and 2010 Significant Pyrodinium blooms occurred in the summer of 2008, 2009 and 2010

20. 2010 Seagrass Estimates All TB segments showed increased acreage All TB segments showed increased acreage Upper bay segments still have room to “grow” Upper bay segments still have room to “grow”

21. TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy Reduce Nitrogen NitrogenLoadsReduce Chloro- Chloro-phyll ReduceLightAtten-uation Sea- grass Recover

23. Reducing Nitrogen Loads Tampa Bay Nitrogen Management Consortium formed in 1996 Tampa Bay Nitrogen Management Consortium formed in 1996 Collectively accepted responsibility to reduce TN loads to Tampa Bay Collectively accepted responsibility to reduce TN loads to Tampa Bay TN loads are capped at levels appropriate to maintain bay water quality for seagrass expansion TN loads are capped at levels appropriate to maintain bay water quality for seagrass expansion ReduceNitrogenLoads

24. TBEP Nitrogen Management Strategy Reduce Nitrogen NitrogenLoadsReduce Chloro- Chloro-phyll ReduceLightAtten-uation 2006: First-time All Segments Meet TBEP Management Targets Sea- grass Recover 1998: NMC Partnership Formed to “Hold the Line” 1996-2009: NMC Projects Preclude >430t N / yr 2010: RA Accepted & Adopted by FDEP, N Load Allocations Voluntarily & Proactively Developed 2011+ :Demonstrating RA Compliance & Providing Input on Criteria Development 2012:RA Update Completed!

25. Management Framework Bay segment annual average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and light attenuationBay segment annual average values compared to established bay segment targets for chlorophyll-a and light attenuation Results of each comparison placed into decision matrix frameworkResults of each comparison placed into decision matrix framework Overall management response determined for each bay segmentOverall management response determined for each bay segmentGreen “Stay the course;” partners continue with planned projects to implement the CCMP. Data summary and reporting via the Baywide Environmental Monitoring Report and annual assessment and progress reports. Yellow TAC and Management Board on caution alert; review monitoring data and loading estimates; attempt to identify causes of target exceedences; TAC report to Management Board on findings and recommended responses needed. Red TAC, Management and Policy Boards on alert; review and report by TAC to Management Board on recommended types of responses. Management and Policy Boards take appropriate actions to get the program back on track.

27. 2011 Chlorophyll-a Temporal Distribution

28. 2011 Kd (Light Attenuation) Temporal Distribution

29. Observed Seagrass Gains & Losses 2001-20042004-2006

30. 2006-2008 2008-2010