1. Medium Term Plan, 2003-2006 with a Long Term Projection to 2010 L. Maiani. CERN Finance Committee June 19, 2002

2. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-062 Summary 1.Roadmap 2.The Scientific Programme, 2003-2006 3.Financial framework and basic assumptions 4.Overview of Resources Distribution 5.Evolution of budgetary lines 6.Financial plan 7.Scenarios and Conclusions

3. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-063 Finance Committee November 2001 You are HERE!

4. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-064 2. The Scientific programme 2003-2006 i) the LHC will be commissioned in April 2007; ii) non-LHC activities continue to be steadily reduced from 2003 onwards; iii) neither the SPS nor the PS will run in 2005, while PS and SPS beam-time in 2003, 2004 and 2006 will be reduced by 30%, with respect to normal operation level of 190 to 200 physics days per year; IMPORTANT Operation of PS and SPS in 2006 is required to: (i) complete the commissioning of the SPS as the LHC injector, (ii) to provide test beams for the calibration of the CMS calorimeter, (iii) for the CNGS facility and for operation of COMPASS phase 2, if approved A budget line for fixed target programme has been secured from 2006 onwards.

5. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-065 The Long-Term Scientific Programme (dotted lines represent extensions yet to be approved)

6. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-066 CERN Neutrino beam to Gran Sasso The CNGS Project was approved by the CERN Council in December 1999 estimated construction cost of 71 MCHF, (2.5 MCHF contingency) and 59 man-years of CERN staff over the 5-year construction period CNGS Project uses equipment recuperated from the CERN West Area Neutrino Facility and shares common equipment with the LHC for a value of 22 MCHF. Six Member States are making voluntary contributions to CNGS (62 MCHF signed). In February 2002 a cost-to-completion review of the CNGS Project was completed, followed by an internal study to reduce the cost. This second analysis has shown that only some marginal savings can be made on the 10 sub-systems constituting the facility. In conclusion, the Management has decided to set the cost of the CNGS facility at 77.6 MCHF (2.5 MCHF contingency), and manpower of 84 man*year (50 m*y to completion). These figures are used in the Plan

7. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-067 3. Financial framework i.income as foreseen in the MTP for 2002-2005 ii.from 2006 onwards the model is based on full indexation of contributions, in line with inflation (2% assumed in this document); iii.cost-to-completion of the LHC (machine and experimental areas, CERN share of the detectors) as estimated in December 2001 (CERN/CC/2415); iv.the need for a contingency for the LHC Project of at least 100 MCHF; v.the extra cost to CERN of LHC Computing Phase 2 is estimated at 60 MCHF, while 20 MCHF of additional external funding is assumed; vi.LHC repayment period extends to 2010.

8. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-068 4. Distribution of CERN resources (2003-2010, P+M) Revision of Programme, Project and Activities scheme done in April 02; CERN staff is attributed to the various lines of activity accordingly and quantified in CHF; Overall cost of activities is exposed.

9. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-069 Budget for Activities, 2003 M LHC: 73% LHC: 64 P+M

10. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0610 Additional Materials Expenditure in MCHF Note: LHC extra cost ( Nov. 2001)= = 887 - 53 (infrastruct. - present in MTP 01) - 26 (injectors - same) -14 (radioact. waste)+ 40 (lack of Spec. Contr.) + 15 (stop of over indexation of HS from 2006) = 849

11. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0611 Savings Plan, Materials in MCHF (2002 prices)

12. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0612 Tab.8 Materials and PE budget Summary (MCHF, 2002 PRICES) same as in May No details Re-profiling of expenses, no change in cost to completion

13. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0613 Tab.1 NON LHC PHYSICS PROGRAMME

14. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0614 Tab.2. CERN Share of LHC Detector Construction and Operation Cost (more rational distribution between construction and operation w.r.t. May)

15. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0615 Tab. 3 GENERAL SUPPORT TO THE SCIENTIFIC PROGRAMME

16. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0616 Tab.4 TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME

17. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0617 Tab. 5 ACCELERATORS & AREAS PROGRAMME

18. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0618 Tab.6 LHC Machine & Areas Construction (more rational distribution between construction and operation w.r.t. May) Tab. 6b

19. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0619 Tab. 7 INFRASTRUCTURE & SERVICES

20. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0620 ANTICIPATED BUDGETARY POSITION (MCHF, CURRENT PRICES) contingency

21. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0621 Cash flow deficit in the years of LHC construction

22. PRELIMINARY DRAFT BUDGET FOR 2003 (MCHF, 2002 and 2003 PRICES)

23. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0623 Financial Scenarios Scenario 1. No increase in Member States contributions, prolongations of the LHC debt repayment period to 2010. Little margin for risks inherent to the completion of the LHC. Under-uses the research potential of CERN ’ s infrastructure and the capability of CERN to disseminate know-how in particle physics and technology in the European Institution. It will hardly be possible for CERN to comply with its mission to “ provide for collaboration among European States … for research on high- energy particles, including work in the field of cosmic rays ”, to “ co-operate to the fullest extent with laboratories and institutes in the territories of Member States within the scope of their programmes of activities ” and to prepare future infrastructures adequate to the importance of the Laboratory.

24. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0624 Scenario 2. Member States support the extra-cost of LHC computing, (60 MCHF) with a corresponding increase in an LHC contingency to about 200 MCHF. Scenario 3. Increase in contributions in the period 2004 to 2010 of 1.5%, to bring the R&D accelerator and detector activities to a level proportionate to the size and importance of the Laboratory (this corresponds to about 100 MCHF, 50 to increase contingency and 50 for additional activities). Scenario 4. Increase in contributions in the period 2004 to 2010 of 4%, with contingency and R&D as in scenario 3 and one year reduction of the time gap for the start-up of CERN commitment in new projects for European particle physics after the LHC.

25. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0625 Conclusions The plan reflects the determination of the Organization to carry out the LHC whilst remaining within the 1996 budgetary conditions as far as possible. It addresses the concerns expressed repeatedly by the FC and by the Council, to see a substantial part of the LHC cost overrun found inside the normal CERN budget. Together with the structure and control measures that are being implemented, the Plan ensures the completion of the LHC in sustainable conditions; The Plan is coherent with the External Review Committee recommendations.

26. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0626 Conclusions (cont’d) Scenario 1 envisages no extra contributions before LHC completion, but it has very little margin for unforeseen events; In Scenario 2, a contingency of 200 M for the LHC is built into the system by asking MS to support explicitly the LHC computing structure (60 M); Scenario 3 (increased contingency + more R&D, 100 M) would meet the risks and make best use of the present and future potential of CERN, still corresponding to a limited effort from MS. Scenario 4. In addition would allow for a one year reduction of the time gap for the start-up of CERN commitments in new projects for European particle physics, after the LHC. We hope FC will recommend Council to adopt the Plan and to invest further resources in CERN; We urge MS to consider possibility of advanced contributions, to ease cash flow problems.

27. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0627 The recent months have shown the dedication of the Staff and their commitment to the Organisation. I am very grateful for that. The excellence of the staff is the best guarantee for the successful completion of the LHC and the future vitality of the Laboratory

28. FC. June 19, 2002Medium Term Plan, 03-0628 THE SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES OF CERN AND BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR THE YEARS 2003-2006 AND PROJECTION FOR THE YEARS 2007-2010 Council is invited to: i)approve the overall figures proposed for 2003 so that the detailed preliminary 2003 Draft Budget can be prepared for presentation in September 2002; ii)take note of the proposed budget estimates for 2004, 2005 and 2006 and of the projections up to 2010. iii)give indications concerning long-term projections and scenarios so that a formal proposal for a revision of the 1996 decision on the LHC project can be prepared for Council in December.