1. SuperCities and SuperGrids: A Vision of Long-term Sustainable and Climate-Compatible Energy Paul M. Grant IBM Research Staff Member Emeritus EPRI Science Fellow (retired) Principal, W2AGZ Technologies w2agz@pacbell.net www.w2agz.com IBM Almaden Research Center 21 January 2005

2. 1953 Project Sage – IBM/MIT

3. 35 Years Later… March 3, 1987: “123” Structure at ARC

4. Acknowledgements Jesse Ausubel, PHE-RU Kurt Yeager, EPRI Arnulf Grubler, Yale Jim Daley, DOE Shirabe Akita, CRIEPI Zheng-He Han, Tsinghua U. Chauncey Starr, EPRI

5. Chauncey Starr "If scientists and engineers think they can build something, they will invariably do it… without much thought to the consequences!"

6. Cycles of Demography and Per Capita Energy Intensity Birth of Modern Democracy and Capitalism

7. Earth at Night - 2000

12. China – Installed Generation Capacity 400 GW USA: ~ 1050 GW

15. China “Factoid” Current Population: 1.3 Billion Souls All want to live like Americans Chinese Family Priorities: –(1) TV, (2) Washer, (3) Fridge… –Next an Air Conditioner (200 USD, 1 kW) Assume an average family size of three, then… An extra 500 GW of generation capacity must be added just to keep them cool!

16. World Population: 1850 – 2100 Urban/Rural

17. Future Urban Population Growth

18. HDI vs Electricity Consumption

19. Earth at Night - 2100

20. US Energy Consumption (2001)

21. China-USA Electricity Statistics (2001) Source (CIA & EIA) Production Source (%)ChinaUSA (NA) Fossil80.271.4 (15% NG) Hydro18.55.6 Other0.12.3 Nuclear1.220.0 Annual Producton (TkWh) 1.423.72

22. US Oil Imports (2003)

23. US Natural Gas Imports (BCF, 2003) 22,000

24. China-USA Recoverable Coal Reserves (2002) Million Short TonsYears Left* China126,215273 USA (NA)280,464309 One Short Ton = 6150 kWh Efficiency Conversion – 40%

26. The 21 st Century Energy Challenge Design a communal energy economy to meet the needs of a densely populated industrialized world that reaches all corners of Planet Earth. Accomplish this within the highest levels of environmental, esthetic, safe, reliable, efficient and secure engineering practice possible. …without requiring any new scientific discoveries or breakthroughs!

27. “Boundary Conditions” Sustainable and efficient use of energy resources Carbon-free Non eco-invasive Uses available technology

28. What Does “Non-Eco-Invasive” Mean? Least use of land area, ruling out –Wind farms –Solar (except for roofs) –Biomass cultivation Least by-product disposal volume, ruling out –CO2 sequestration –Once-through fuel cycles Minimal visual pollution, ruling out –Wind farms, either onshore or offshore –Overhead transmission lines Underground as much as possible –Nuclear plants –The SuperCable

29. A Symbiosis of Nuclear/Hydrogen/Superconductivity to Supply Carbon-free, Non-Intrusive Green Energy for all Inhabitants of Planet Earth The Solution Teratechnology for an Exajoule World r

30. P.M. Grant, The Industrial Physicist, Feb/March Issue, 2002 Supermarket School Home Family Car DNA-to-order.com Nuclear plant H2H2 H2H2 HTSC/MgB 2 SuperCity

31. The Hydrogen Economy You have to make it, just like electricity Electricity can make H 2, and H 2 can make electricity (2H 2 O  2H 2 + O 2 ) You have to make a lot of it You can make it cold, - 419 F (21 K) P.M. Grant, “Hydrogen lifts off…with a heavy load,” Nature 424, 129 (2003)

32. Hydrogen for US Surface Transportation Hydrogen per Day TonnesShuttlesHindenburgs 230,0002,22512,787 Water per Day TonnesMeters of Lake Tahoe 2,055,3830.93 The "25% 80-80-80 400 GW" Scenario http://www.w2agz.com Heavy Water ?

33. Hydrogen for US Surface Transportation The "25% 80-80-80 400 GW" Scenario http://www.w2agz.com Renewable Land Area Requirements TechnologyArea (km 2 )Equivalent Wind130,000New York State Solar20,00050% Denmark Death Valley + Mojave Biomass271,9153% USA State of Nevada

34. Diablo Canyon

36. California Coast Power Diablo Canyon 2200 MW Power Plant Wind Farm Equivalent

37. Kashiwazaki Kariwa: 8000 MW

38. 1 mile

39. Kashiwazaki Kariwa: 8000 MW 1 mile Unit 7: 1320 MW ABWR

40. Particle/Pebble Nuclear Fuel

41. High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor

42. Reprocessing “Spent” Fuel

44. JNFL Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant

45. $20 B, 5 Year Project 800 mt U/yr 1 mt U -> 50 kg HLW

46. Co-Production of Hydrogen and Electricity Source: INEL & General Atomics Reactor Vessel O2O2

47. Source: General Atomics Nuclear “Hydricity” Production Farm

48. 1967: SC Cable Proposed! 100 GW dc, 1000 km !

49. 1986: A Big Surprise! Bednorz and Mueller IBM Zuerich, 1986 19802000 V 3 Si 190019201940 1960 0 50 100 150 200 Temperature, T C (K) Year Low-T C Hg

50. 1986: A Big Surprise! Bednorz and Mueller IBM Zuerich, 1986 19802000 High-T C 164 K La-214 Hg-1223 V 3 Si 190019201940 1960 0 50 100 150 200 Temperature, T C (K) Year Low-T C Hg

51. 1986: A Big Surprise! Bednorz and Mueller IBM Zuerich, 1986 19802000 High-T C 164 K La-214 Hg-1223 V 3 Si 190019201940 1960 0 50 100 150 200 Temperature, T C (K) Year Low-T C Hg MgB 2 40 K 2001

52. 1987: “The Prize!”

53. Oxide PowderMechanically Alloyed Precursor 1.Powder Preparation HTSC Wire Can Be Made! A. Extrusion B. Wire Draw C. Rolling Deformation & Processing 3. Oxidation - Heat Treat 4. Billet Packing & Sealing 2.

54. Oxide PowderMechanically Alloyed Precursor 1.Powder Preparation HTSC Wire Can Be Made! A. Extrusion B. Wire Draw C. Rolling Deformation & Processing 3. Oxidation - Heat Treat 4. Billet Packing & Sealing 2. But it’s 70% silver!

55. “Long Island”

57. “Hydricity” SuperCables +v I -v I H2H2 H2H2 Circuit #1 +v I -v I H2H2 H2H2 Circuit #2 Multiple circuits can be laid in single trench

58. SuperCable

59. Power Flows P SC = 2|V|JA SC, where P SC = Electric power flow V = Voltage to neutral (ground) J = Supercurrent density A SC = Cross-sectional area of superconducting annulus Electricity P H2 = 2(QρvA) H2, where P H2 = Chemical power flow Q = Gibbs H 2 oxidation energy (2.46 eV per mol H 2 ) ρ = H 2 Density v = H 2 Flow Rate A = Cross-sectional area of H 2 cryotube Hydrogen

60. Power Flows: 5 GW e /10 GW th

61. Radiation Losses W R = 0.5εσ (T 4 amb – T 4 SC ), where W R = Power radiated in as watts/unit area σ = 5.67×10 -12 W/cm 2 K 4 T amb = 300 K T SC = 20 K ε = 0.05 per inner and outer tube surface D H = 45.3 cm W R = 16.3 W/m Superinsulation: W R f = W R /(n-1), where n = number of layers = 10 Net Heat In-Leak Due to Radiation = 1.8 W/m

62. Fluid Friction Losses W loss = M P loss / , Where M = mass flow per unit length P loss = pressure loss per unit length  = fluid density FluidRe  (mm) D H (cm)v (m/s)  P (atm/10 km) Power Loss (W/m) H (20K)2.08 x 10 6 0.01545.34.762.03.2

63. Heat Removal dT/dx = W T /(ρvC P A) H2, where dT/dx = Temp rise along cable, K/m W T = Thermal in-leak per unit Length ρ = H 2 Density v = H 2 Flow Rate C P = H 2 Heat Capacity A = Cross-sectional area of H 2 cryotube SuperCable Losses (W/M)K/10km RadiativeFrictionac LossesConductiveTotaldT/dx 1.83.211710 -2

64. SuperCable H 2 Storage Some Storage Factoids Power (GW) Storage (hrs)Energy (GWh) TVA Raccoon Mountain1.62032 Scaled ETM SMES188 One Raccoon Mountain = 13,800 cubic meters of LH2 LH 2 in 45 cm diameter, 20 km bipolar SuperCable = Raccoon Mountain

65. H 2 Gas at 77 K and 1850 psia has 50% of the energy content of liquid H 2 and 100% at 6800 psia

66. “Hybrid” SuperCable

68. Mackenzie Valley Pipeline 1300 km 18 GW-thermal

69. Electrical Insulation “Super- Insulation” Superconductor LNG @ 105 K 1 atm (14.7 psia) Liquid Nitrogen @ 77 K Thermal Barrier to LNG LNG SuperCable

71. Questions and/or Comments? Slings and Arrows Welcomed!