1. Development of the PV industry in Europe Michel VIAUD General Secretary

2. WHO is EPIA? Non-profit orginasition existing since 1985
75 members: 59 full + 16 associate
59 full: manufacturers on the overall value chain
Budget 2005: € ( EC 1/3 + 2/3 members)
Secretariat in Brussels - the heart of EUROPE :
6 permanent employees speaking 13 languages
6 Board members elected for 3 years
President per year
Winfried Hoffmann
Murray Cameron

3. EPIA and its members
EPIA represents 95% of the photovoltaic European industry, covering the whole production chain.
Silicon feedstock: Wacker …
Wafers and Ingots: Crystallox, Scanwafer, PV Silicon …
Cells: Q-cells, BP Solar, Isofoton, Shell Solar, Deutsche Solar,…
Modules: RWE Schott Solar, Photowatt, Photovoltech…
Systems: Total Energie, Naps Systems, Conergy, Phoenix,…
Inverters: SMA, Philips, Sunways, Fronius…

4. EPIA and its members Top 10 worldwide – 9 EPIA members
Source: EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005

5. EPIA and its members EPIA members 80% of world cell production in 2004
Mitsubishi; 75; 6%
Shell Solar; 72; 6%
Sharp; 324; 28%
Kyocera; 105; 9%
BP Solar; 85; 7%
Q-Cells; 75; 6%
Sanyo; 65; 5%
Isofoton; 53; 4%
RWE; 44; 4%
Deutsche Cell; 28; 2%
Others; 268; 23%
EPIA members 80% of world cell production in 2004
Source: EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005

6. Dependant on market support programs
Market Segments
Economically viable
Dependant on market support programs
Consumer
Off-Grid Industrial
On-Grid
Off-Grid Residential
Source: Strategies
Unlimited
Knapp die Hälfte aller in in 2001 verkauften Solarzellen und -module wurden in Anwendungen eingesetzt wo PV Solarstrom entweder die kostengünstigste (wie bei den meisten netzfernen industriellen und ländlichen Anwendungen) oder einzige Lösung zur Realisierung eines Kundenwunsches darstellt.
Die netzgekoppelten Anlagen sind bis jetzt nur mit Marktunter-stützungsprogrammen für den Anwender wirtschaftlich attraktiv. Letztere wurden als industriepolitische Instrumente in den Wirtschaftsregionen Japan, Deutschland und USA zur Entwicklung der jeweiligen produzierenden Industrie eingesetzt. Das Erreichen der Wirtschaftlichkeit in diesem Marktsegment wird in den Bildern 7 bis 9 erläutert.

7. Competitiveness of PV Solar Electricity
proven in the three segments:
industrial off-grid
consumer
rural electrification
coming soon in grid-connected systems
First, in local replacement of peak tariff electricity kWh in liberalized southern OECD countries (… 2010 … 2015)
Second, the same in more northern OECD countries (… 2020 … 2025)

8. Solar-Grade Silicon SUPPLY CAN NOT FOLLOW DEMAND.
CAGR Poly-Demand : + 15 %
Module production (MW) and Polysilicon Production (tons)
tons MW
3,1 GW
Feedstock for the PV Industry
Karl Hesse, Ewald Schindlbeck, April , Page 8

9. Semiconductor Cycles

10. Electricity Generating Cost for PV and utility prices
Photovoltaics
Utility peak power
Bulk power
Specific investment costs in Germany reduced due to economy of scale in production since the start of the 1,000 roof program.
Electricity generating costs for Northern and Southern Europe are shown.
Extrapolation into the future with 5% decrease per year as in the past ten years.
If in the same plot the price for electricity purchase from the utility is displayed, different break even points with PV electricity result accordingly whether peak power or which region is referred to.
Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH

11. Competitiveness
Correlation between Daily PV Power Production and Energy Consumption of an Office Building in Spain
Plotted is the typical load profile during the course of the day for an office building in Spain.
The electricity demand in the office building exhibits a pronounced peak between 9 and 16 hours which is significantly higher in summer than in winter. Synchronously in phase to this demand, PV energy is produced by the solar modules.
This is in contrast to the use of wind energy, which can economically best be used in the future in central power stations (multi Gigawatt off-shore) where by the stochastic yield of wind a temporal assignment is not possible. With solar radiation in turn, a clear temporal and seasonal assignment is possible.
Due to this reason, for the assessment of electric energy from different energy sources, the cost calculation for time dependent electricity tariffs will strongly depend on the temporal availability of the energy sources: e.g. conventional energy generation and large hydroelectric stations as compared to new energy generators (wind and PV solar electric).

12. Competitiveness Spot Market Prices in Correlation with
PV Electricity Generation in Germany
Spot market price
PV power output
Source:

13. World PV Market Size and Application Segmentation
200
400
600
800
1000
Market Size in MWp
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Off-Grid & Consumer
on-Grid
18 % p.a.
63 % p.a.
40 % p.a. 13

14. Comparison of the Future Market Development in Europe and Japan
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
cumulated installations in MWp
200
400
600
800
1200
1400
Yearly installations in MWp
Yearly installations mainly Germany
Cumulative installations mainly
Germany
Additional EU-installations e.g. EU-wide feed-in tarriff program (not contained in accumulated curve)
Yearly installations Japan
In analoger Weise zu den in Bild Nr. 20 diskutierten Zielen in Europa sind hier die Ziele des japanischen METI dargestellt: statt MW kumulierter PV-Leistung in 2010 werden hier MW angestrebt!
Da Economy of Scale zwingende Voraussetzung zum Erfolg einer commodity-Fertigung ist, ergibt sich hieraus die wichtige Folgerung, dass wir in Europa nicht diskutieren sollten, ob die angestrebten MW auch etwas geringer ausfallen dürften, sondern wir alle Anstrengungen unternehmen sollten, zu den japanischen Zielen aufzuschließen! Dies ließe sich mit hoher Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit mit einem europaweiteten Stromeinspeisegesetz für PV Solarstrom realisieren.
Cumulative installations
Japan

15. Market Data Europe including the 100,000 Rooftop Program / Feed-in Tariff (EEG) in Germany50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Yearly Installed MWp DE
EU without DE
Dächer-
Programm KfW
EEG
Das 1000-Dächer-PV-Programm wurde im Zeitraum von 1990 bis 1992 durchgeführt. Es war weltweit als erstes flächendeckendes Programm zur erfolgreichen Demonstration der Leistungsfähigkeit von PV-Solarstromanlagen anerkannt worden. Aufgrund der "Kleinheit" des Programmes (ca. 2 MW pro Jahr) war - wie oben in der Abbildung zu sehen - leider keine Auswirkung auf das Jahresvolumen festzustellen. Der fulminante Marktanstieg seit 1999 ist auf das Dächer KfW-Finanzierungsprogramm und insbesondere das in 2000 in Kraft getretene Erneuerbare Energieeinspeisegesetz (EEG) zurückzuführen: in nur 4 Jahren ist eine Verzehnfachung des Marktes zu verzeichnen Die derzeitige Novellierung des EEG, die den Wegfall der KfW-Finanzierungsprogramme durch eine erhöhte Einspeisevergütung kompensieren soll, kann gemäß dem vorliegenden Referentenentwurf (siehe Bild Nr. 19) für einen weiteren moderaten Ausbau der Jahresvolumina eine gute Grundlage bieten.
Source: IEA PVPS

16. Influence of Feed-in tariff on an annual PV installation in Germany (MW)50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
New Feed-in Law
Feed-in Law
1,000-Rooftop
program
(2.500x3kW)
100,000-Rooftop
program KfW
RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH and EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005

17. Germany vs Rest of Europe in 2004 (MWp)
768 26
172 61
200
400
600
800
Germany
Rest of Europe
Off-grid
On-grid

18. Total installed capacity in Europe in 2004 (MWp)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Others
Belgium
Denmark
Portugal
Finland
Sweden
Greece
Great Britain
Austria
France
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Italy
Spain
Holland
Germany
On-grid
Off-grid

19. The most effective support programme
Feed-in tariff
Advantages :
Focus of customers will be on product quality and performance of the systems for a long period of time
Investors confidence secured (attractive rate of return for investors)
Does not a burden on public funds
No Bureacratic constraints
Appropriate Tool to stimulate Industrial Investment

20. Feed-in law as an industry political action to reach competitiveness for the European industry of new technologies

21. EEG - the most effective program worldwide to stimulate the renewable energy market
Equal market opportunities for all the renewable energies based on specific feed-in-tariffs
Customer focus is on product quality and performance as a result of high competition in the market
The long reliable availability (>20 years) of the system performance is the key requirement of the end-user of renewable power technologies
In contrast to short-term cash subsidy programs the new law offers a perfect basis to forecast annual sales volumes in the mid-run
EEG Win-win-situation:  stimulation of customer‘s demand  Economy of scale in production (e.g. SmartSolarFab® RWE Schott Solar)
 defined decline of feed-in-tariff rate and price level of system

22. Annual Market Potential until 2010 (2015) assuming a quick Introduction of an EU-wide Feed-in Tariff System
Country
Populatio n
[Mio]
Market 200 4
[MW]
Potential 2010
(2015)
Germany 80
363
600
<
1.000
France 60
5.87
100
>
500 UK
1.9 50
Italy
4.3
200
Spain 40
11.8
Greece 10 1 .3
Ben e
lux/Austria 30 2
0.83
150
700
Rest of EU - 15
1.26
New EU states 75
0.2
Total
455
410.5
Up to
1.5
5.000
For comparis o n:
Japan
130
277
1.200 ca
RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH and EurObserv’ER, Photovoltaic Energy Barometer 2005

23. 0,60 €/kWp < 20 kWp 0,47 €/kWp > 20 kWp
Country
Price
Installed capacity on (kW)
off-grid
on-grid
total
Austria
0,60 €/kWp < 20 kWp ,47 €/kWp > 20 kWp
1 950
7 050
9 000
Belgium
0,45 €/kWh (only in Flemish part on )
530
Cyprus
0,26 €/kWh
 15

24. Czech Republic
0,19 € /kWh
147
216
363
Denmark
no feed-in tariffs
215
1375
1 590
Estonia
0,05 €/kWh 2
Finland
2 890
140
3 030
France
in metropole ,15 €/kWp < 5 kW for residential system ,15 €/kWp < 150 kW for non-building systems such as noise barriers ,15 €/kWp < 1 MW for commercial and public buildings
15 299
1 942
17 241
0,30 €/kWp for installations in Corsica and Overseas Dep
Germany
rooftops facades
0,574 €/kWp ,624 €/kWp <30 kW
0,546 €/kWp ,596 €/kWp <30 ;100> kW
0,540 €/kWp ,590 €/kWp >100 kW
16 700
Greece
0,06 €/kWh for mainland grid
0,08 €/kWh for autonomous island grid
1 330
1 040
2 370

25. Hungary
0,073 €/kWh 83 55
138
Ireland
Italy
Decree
to 20kWp = €/kWh
20kWp to 50kWp = €/kWh
> = €/kWh
12 400
10 350
22 750
Latvia
0,10 €/kWh = price that equals the double average sales tariff for the conventional electrical energy - now it is app. 0,05 €/kWh 3
Lithuania
0,056 €/kWh 17
Lux
0,45 €/kWh
3500
Malta  9
Netherland
0,07 €/kWh
4 632
21 694
26 326

26. Tariff for IPP (Independent Power Producers):
Poland
no feed-in tariffs
165 69
234
Portugal
Tariff for IPP (Independent Power Producers):
0,51 €/kWh <5 kWp
0,28 €/kWh >5 kWp
1 276
392
1 668
tariff for producers that consume 50% of generated energy (producer-consumer law): ,25 €/kWh (independently of the installed capacity)
Slovakia 10
10j)
Slovenia
0,375 €/kWh <36 kW
0,065 €/kWh >36 kW 90 6 96

27. Spain
0,40 €/kWh <100 kW
0,22 €/kWh <100; > kW
> kW
11 390
7 910
19 300
Sweden
no feed-in tariffs
3 100
180
3 280 UK
568
3 568
4 136

28. Contribution of PV Solar Electricity to Global Electricity Production in 2040
[%]
Source: Own estimates together with "advanced
scenario" according to EREC
1 marine
2 geothermal
3 biomass
4 hydro
5 wind
6 solar thermal
PV solar
electricity
100 % RES 29,808 TWh (≡ 80 % of total)
Total electricity consumption 36,346 TWh (from 15,578 TWh in 2001, IEA)

29. More information on www.epia.org
Monthly Newsletter
Solaris
3000 contacts !

30. 1st PV Med Conference: www.pvmed.org

31. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit