1. Populism in the European Parliament – the future Parliament Populists will do well in the election… …But they will remain fragmented

2. The current make-up of the EP Image: Ssolbergj Ssolbergj GUE-NGL S & D Greens / EFA ALDE EPP ECR EFD Non-Attached (NI)

3. The potential future make-up of the EP

4. Scenarios for the future Parliament Scenario 1: ultra-fragmentation UKIP Order and Justice Independent Greeks SGP Finns Party Danish People’s Party Five Star Movement Front National PVV Vlaams Belang FPÖ Lega Nord Sweden Democrats ? Europe of Freedom and Democracy A new populist group Non-Attached Members Jobbik Golden Dawn LSNS Source: Electionista, own calculations Images: Remi Noyon, Niccolò Caranti, Steve JurvetsonRemi NoyonNiccolò CarantiSteve Jurvetson

5. Scenarios for the future Parliament Scenario 2: UKIP betrayed Front National PVV Vlaams Belang FPÖ Lega Nord Sweden Democrats ? Jobbik Golden Dawn LSNS UKIP Source: Electionista, own calculations Images: Remi Noyon, Jennifer Jane MillsRemi NoyonJennifer Jane Mills A new populist group Non-Attached Members

6. Scenarios for the future Parliament Scenario 3: more of the same UKIP Finns Party Danish People’s Party Lega Nord Five Star Movement Order and Justice Independent Greeks Jobbik Front National PVV Vlaams Belang FPÖ Sweden Democrats Golden Dawn LSNS Source: Electionista, own calculations Image:: Steve JurvetsonSteve Jurvetson Europe of Freedom and Democracy Non-Attached Members