2. Feed Grain and Wheat Market Situation And Outlook 2001 Southern Region Agricultural Outlook Conference September 25,2001 Kurt M. Guidry Associate Specialist LSU Agricultural Center

3. Current Feed Grain Fundamentals n Supply Side n Demand Side l 2001 Corn Crop Estimated At 9.238 Billion Bushels-Down 730 From 2000/01. l 2001 Sorghum Crop Estimated At 537 Million Bushels-Up 67 From 2000/01. l World Corn Production Down About 7.24 Million Metric Tons From 2000/01 l World Coarse Grain Production Up 3.14 Million Metric Tons From 2000/01 n Supply - Demand = Ending Stocks l Corn Stocks Expected To Fall By 577 Million Bushels in 2001/02 l Sorghum Stocks To Increase By 28 Million Bushels in 2001/02 l World Coarse Grain And Corn Stocks To Fall In 2001/02 l Expected Corn Price - $1.95 - $2.35, Sorghum -$1.95 - $2.35 l Exports To Increase By 35 Million Bushels From 2000/01 l Starlink, Mad Cow, and Foot and Mouth Disease Impacts l Feed Demand Expected Down Slightly l Ethanol Production Expected To Increase Dramatically l 2001 Corn Use Estimated At 9.825 Billion Bushels l 2001 Sorghum Use Estimated At 510 Million Bushels

5. 74,166 75,957 79,311 73,239 78,921 71,479 79,229 79,537 80,165 77,431 79,579 76,109 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Thousand Acres U.S. Corn Planted Acres

6. 7,934 7,475 9,477 6,338 10,051 7,400 9,2339,207 9,759 9,431 9,968 9,238 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Million Bushels U.S. Corn Production

7. 1,425 1,534 1,556 1,613 1,715 1,628 1,714 1,805 1,846 1,913 1,965 2,050 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Million Bushels U.S. Corn Food, Seed,& Industrial Use

8. Projected U.S. Ethanol Production Existing Plants New Plants Total 2,219 82 2,301 2,481 518 2,999 2,689 1,329 4,018 2,774 1,387 4,161 2,852 1,575 4,427 20012002200320042005 -------- Million gallons per year --------

9. 4,609 4,798 5,252 4,680 5,460 4,693 5,277 5,4825,471 5,664 5,850 5,800 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Million Bushels U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Use

10. 1,727 1,584 1,663 1,328 2,177 2,228 1,797 1,504 1,981 1,937 1,940 1,975 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Million Bushels U.S. Corn Exports

11. 1,521 1,100 2,113 850 1,558 426 883 1,308 1,775 1,718 1,930 1,361 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Million Bushels 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percent Ending Stocks Stocks To Use Ratio U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

12. 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Dollars Per Bushel Corn Prices Grain Sorghum Prices U.S. Yearly Average Feed Grain Prices

14. 10,535 11,064 13,177 9,882 9,787 9,429 13,097 10,052 9,626 9,288 9,200 10,000 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 5 10 15 Thousand Acres U.S. Sorghum Planted Acres

15. 573 585 875 534 646 459 795 634 520 595 470 537 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Million Bushels U.S. Sorghum Production

16. 17 19 20 22 19 45 55 45 55 35 45 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Million Bushels U.S. Sorghum Food, Seed, & Industrial Use

17. 401 366 457 440 377 295 516 365 262 284 235 225 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Million Bushels U.S. Sorghum Feed & Residual Use

18. 233 291 277 202 223 198 205 212 197 256 245 240 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Million Bushels U.S. Sorghum Exports

19. 143 53 175 48 72 18 47 49 65 20 48 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 50 100 150 200 Million Bushels 0 5 10 15 20 25 Percent Ending Stocks Stocks To Use Ratio U.S. Sorghum Ending Stocks

20. 1997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Million Metric Tons World Corn Production

21. 1997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Million Metric Tons China United States European Union Brazil World Corn Production

22. 1997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 50 100 150 200 Million Metric Tons World Corn Ending Stocks

23. 1997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Million Metric Tons China United States European Union Brazil World Corn Ending Stocks

25. Current Wheat Fundamentals n Supply Side n Demand Side l 2001 Wheat Crop Estimated At 1.99 B.Bushels-Down 231 From 2000/01. l World Wheat Production Down 7.98 Million Metric Tons From 2000/01 n Supply - Demand = Ending Stocks l Wheat Stocks Expected To Fall By 241 Million Bushels in 2001/02 l World Wheat Stocks To Fall By 23.99 Million Metric Tons In 2001/02 l Expected Wheat Price - $2.70 - $3.10 l Exports To Decrease By 11 Million Bushels From 2000/01 l Global Wheat Trade Expected To Rebound After Poor 2000/01 l 2001 Wheat Use Estimated At 2.322 Billion Bushels

27. 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Million Acres All Wheat Winter Wheat Durum Wheat Other Spring Wheat U.S. Wheat Harvested Acres

28. 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 Marketing Year 25 30 35 40 45 50 Bushels/Acre All Wheat Winter Wheat Durum Wheat Other Spring Wheat U.S. Wheat Yield

29. 2,321 2,183 2,277 2,481 2,547 2,299 2,223 1,991 1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Million Bushels U.S. Wheat Production

30. 853 883 891 914 907 929 957960 1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Million Bushels U.S. Wheat Domestic Food Use

31. 345 154 308 251 397 280 292 225 1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 Million Bushels U.S. Wheat Feed And Residual Use

32. 1,188 1,241 1,002 1,0401,042 1,090 1,061 1,050 1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 500 1000 1500 Million Bushels U.S. Wheat Exports

33. 507 376 444 722 946950 873 632 1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Million Bushels 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Percent Ending Stocks Stocks to Use Ratio U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

34. 1990/91 1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 Marketing Year 2 3 4 5 6 Dollars Per Bushel Durum Other Spring Winter All Wheat U.S. Wheat Prices

35. 524.0 538.4 581.9 609.2 588.8 586.4 579.1571.07 1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Million Metric Tons World Wheat Production

37. 118.2 108.4 113.4 138.7 135.6 168.1 158.5 134.5 1994/951995/961996/971997/981998/991999/002000/012001/02 Marketing Year 0 50 100 150 200 Million Metric Tons 5 10 15 20 25 Percent Production World Stocks-To-Use Ratio U.S. Share Of Total World Stocks World Wheat Ending Stocks