1. PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FOR A SUCCESSFUL 2010 CENSUS Barbara Everitt Bryant Lisa Neidert December 10, 2009

2. Overview  Scope of the Census  Challenges for the 2010 Census  Good News for the Census Bureau  The Goods: Looking at Data

3. Differences between a large social survey and the Decennial Census  Size and Scope  Planning cycle and procedures locked in  535 powerful micromanagers (Congress)  Questionnaire designers who never think it is too late to make changes (Vitter/Bennett and citizen question)  See the census as a jobs program (Schumer, et.al. who want NRFU jobs to go to long-term unemployed)  What next????

4. Challenges for the 2010 Census  Politics: Winners and Losers  Economy  Hard to Count populations  Media Environment

5. Politics of the Census: Winners and Losers YearIssue 1789 Census is in the Constitution. Initially had checks and balances. Population used for representation and taxation. 1860 Slave states vs Free States 1870 14 th amendment – former slaves now counted as full persons 1911 House size is fixed at 435 – zero sum game now. One state’s gain is another state’s loss. 1913 16 th amendment – Income tax. Taxes are no longer collected in proportion to population size. 1920 Rural vs Urban. Only census to never be used for re- apportionment. 1929 Permanent Apportionment Act. Established a process to make sure apportionment would always take place

6. Politics of the Census: Winners and Losers YearIssue 1941Congress permanently adopted “Method of Equal Proportions” to determine apportionment. 1968Federal Housing Act includes revenue sharing to local governments. Population counts in census are critical. 1980+1) Undercount; 2) Which populations should be included (non-citizens, overseas population); 3) Where to count prisoners 1990Statistical adjustment for undercount 2000Statistical adjustment for non-response; Supreme Court ruled against this in June 1999. CurrentCitizenship issue again; Size of the House – The per capita district size ranges from 495,304 (WY) to 905,316 (MT). Future????????????????

7. House Size by Region: 1900 – 2000: A Power Shift to the South and West

8. Winners and Losers: 1900 – 2000 Selected States

9. Recent/Future Shifts in Power 19902000 * 2010* Northeast -7-5-4 Midwest -8-5-7 South +7+5+8 West +8+5+3

10. 2010 Projections  Projections based on December 2008 data  Will update shortly  Growth assumption  Winners  (+1) FL, GA, NV, OR, SC, UT  (+2) AZ  (+4) TX  Losers  (-1) IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NY, PA  (-2) OH

11. Census Challenges: Economy  Housing Vacancies/Foreclosures  Non-response follow up (NRFU) to empty houses increases costs  Doubled-up families  Everyone needs to understand residence rules  Outreach  States participation will be low due to financial constraints Washtenaw county [no resources for this]

12. Hard to Count: Immigrants – mostly Hispanics  Rapid growth of undocumented population from 1990 – 2006  4% of population; 5.4% of labor force  76% Hispanic; 11% Asian  Varies by state  1990 (42% in CA); 2008 (22% in CA)

13. Distribution of Undocumented Population [from Pew Hispanic]

14. Hard to Count - Hispanics  Mistrust/fear and language  Multi-lingual questionnaires and help centers  Won’t solve fear/mistrust issue  Hispanic minister calling for boycott to jumpstart immigration reform  Boycott would help Michigan and other low- Hispanic states in re-apportionment  Would not be helpful for allocation of federal funds

15. Media Environment  Big Media is fading in influence  How to reach folks who only use alternative media (or none)?  Potential for mis-information in blogosphere  Blogs  http://blogs.census.gov/2010census/ http://blogs.census.gov/2010census/  http://censusprojectblog.org/ http://censusprojectblog.org/

16. Good News for Census 2010  Short Form Census  Long-form questions are part of the American Community Survey (ACS)  This is Leslie Kish’s rolling census  Technology  Outreach

17. Good News: Short-Form  10 questions 10 minutes  No long-form negativity in the news  Why are they asking this?  Quotes  George Bush (the younger)  Michelle Bachman  from England

18. Good News: Technology  Second Mailing  1990: Not even on Census Bureau radar First question Barbara Bryant asked  2000: Technology not quite there  Real-time return data  Can deploy advertising/people to problem areas

19. Good News: Outreach  Advertising Campaign  Second census to have a real advertising budget  Look for an ad in the Super Bowl  Hard to Count (HTC) campaign  What do you think predicts HTC?  Who are the HTC in Ann Arbor?  ISR/UM project to increase mail response  Not “one size fits all” effort  Outreach specialists decide what works best for their turf

20. Aging in Place

21. Race: The Past Race Hispanic 1950197019902008 White87.784.376.465.9 Black10.011.011.912.2 Asian 0.2 0.7 2.8 4.5 Hispanic 2.2 3.9 8.915.5

22. Majority/Minority States: 2008  Total population  HI, NM, CA, TX  Different combinations across states  School age population (<18)  HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MS, GA  Pre-kindergarten (0-5)  HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MD, GA, DE, NY

23. Race: The Future

24. Marriage and Family Formation Measure 1950197019902008 Median age at marriage (women) 20.320.823.926.0 Never married, 15+ (women) 18.020.523.128.1 % currently divorced (women) 2.5 4.0 9.411.9 Age at first birth22.521.424.225.0 % non-marital births 4.010.728.040.0 One person households20.222.822.128.9 Husband/wife families77.069.055.749.2

25. Labor Force Participation