1. The GEOS-5 AOGCM List of co-authors Yury Vikhliaev Max Suarez Michele Rienecker Jelena Marshak, Bin Zhao, Robin Kovack, Yehui Chang, Jossy Jacob, Larry Takacs, Andrea Molod, Siegfried Schubert

2. NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemistry NOAA/GFDL dynamics DOE/LANL sea ice model GSFC/GOCART/Aerosols 2 GEOS-5 Model for CMIP5 GMAO physics GMAO Land surface NOAA/GFDL ocean For time-slice chemistry- climate simulations IPCC aerosol and trace gas concentrations

3. Ocean Model on OGCM Grid Air-sea Interface Component On Exchange grid Atmospheric Model on AGCM Grid (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Model on AGCM Grid (GEOS-5) Ocean Dynamics and Transport (MOM4) Ocean Dynamics and Transport (MOM4) Diurnal Layer (Price) Diurnal Layer (Price) Surface Wind, Air Temperature, Specific Humidity, other atmos constituents Momentum, Heat, Moisture fluxes, Gas Exchanges Mixed Layer Currents, Temperature, Salinity, etc Momentum, Heat, Fresh Water, and Salt Fluxes Gas Exchanges Sea Ice Thermodynamics (CICE) Sea Ice Thermodynamics (CICE) Sea Ice Dynamics (CICE) Sea Ice Dynamics (CICE) All air-sea exchanges are implicit in time Ocean Radiation (NOMB) Ocean Radiation (NOMB) Ocean Biology (NOMB) Ocean Biology (NOMB) GEOS-5 AOGCM Coupling Configuration

4. GEOS-5 AGCM Component 2 0 resolution with 72 vertical levels up to 0.01hPa Finite volume dynamic core (lat-lon version) Physics Chou Radiation: shortwave, long wave Turbulent mixing: vertical diffusion, PBL parametrization, GWD. LSM: Catchment (Koster) Moist: RAS convection, Bacmeister moist physics Prescribed aerosols and ozone

5. Ocean MOM4 B-grid, tripolar, Z-coordinate Two configurations 1° (0.5° equatorial refinement) x 50 levels 0.5° (0.25° equatorial refinement) x 40 levels KPP vertical mixing Isoneutral horizontal mixing Anisotropic horizontal viscosity Sea ice: CICE (LANL)

6. Target Projects for GEOS-5 AOGCM ODAS (weakly coupled assimilation) CMIP-5 Decadal climate simulations Seasonal climate predictions

7. Validation Run AGCM 144x91x72 OGCM 360x200x50 ~100 years Initial conditions: Levitus T and S, steady state ocean; atmospheric state from uncoupled experiment.

9. Zonal Mean Temperature CoupledUncoupled

10. TOA Radiation CoupledUncoupled

11. 300mb Eddy Height CoupledUncoupled

12. Sea Level Pressure CoupledUncoupled

13. Total Precipitation

14. SST Bias

15. SSS Bias

16. Zonal Mean Temperature

17. Zonal Mean Salinity

18. Equatorial Pacific SST

19. Equatorial Pacific SST Annual Cycle

20. Equatorial Pacific Zonal Wind Stress

21. Equatorial Pacific Taux Annual Cycle

22. Equatorial Pacific T,S

23. Equatorial Undercurrent

24. Equatorial Surface Currents

25. Equatorial Pacific T GEOS5 TAO

26. Equatorial Pacific U GEOS5 ADCP

27. Sea Ice Fraction, DJF

28. Sea Ice Fraction, JJA

30. Variability MJO (daily precipitation) – get Wheeler-Kiladis diagram from Yehui Chang ENSO (nino3 ts, map (variance)) PDO? (compare to HADSST) NAO?

32. Leading Mode of Global SST GEOS5HadlSST

33. Leading Mode of Global SST GEOS5HadlSST

34. ENSO Teleconnections CoupledUncoupled

35. Results of Replaying AOGCM to Scout Reanalysis (1982-2005) GODAS SODA Replay 35 °C

36. GMAO will contribute decadal prediction runs GEOS-5 AOGCM: Initialized using weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation based on MERRA Includes aerosol direct effects 10-year, five-member ensemble predictions with 1º AGCM, 1/2º OGCM 30-year, five-member ensemble predictions with 2º AGCM, 1/2º OGCM 20 th Century simulations with 2º AGCM, 1/2º OGCM, include a 10-member ensemble of free-running model and a MERRA-constrained run Additional simulations with GEOS-CCM will include atmospheric chemistry- climate interactions Simulations distributed through NCCS Earth System Grid node. NASA GMAO Decadal Prediction Runs

37. 37 T300T300 Anomaly 70S – 70N 30N – 70N Updated diagnostics - Upper ocean Average T in upper 300m Updated diagnostics - Upper ocean Average T in upper 300m Legend 30S – 30N 70S – 30S For CMIP5 forecasts will use anomaly assimilation to reduce the impacts of climate drift – still testing the initialization.

38. Summary

39. Acknowledgments