1. MET 112 1 MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 15 Energy & Climate Change Mitigation Dr. Eugene Cordero Outline:   Energy use   Mitigation   Kyoto Protocol   Strategies

2. MET 112 2     Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for energy are central to the challenges of climate change. Energy and Climate Change

3. MET 112 3   Obviously, one of the main issues related to climate change is the burning of fossil fuels   Thus, energy use, and the continuing demand for energy are central to the challenges of climate change. Energy and Climate Change

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6. 6 Tons of CO2 emitted per person

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9. 9 1. 1.What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas? 2. 2.What percentage of transportation energy comes from natural gas burning? 3. 3.What percentage of transportation energy use comes from coal? 4. 4.If you buy an electric car, what is the mostly likely source of energy? 5. 5.Where does most residential energy come from? Questions

10. MET 112 10 What percentage of electricity generation comes from the burning of natural gas? 1.5% 2.10% 3.17% 4.61%

11. MET 112 11 If you buy an electric car, what is the most likely energy source 1.Natural gas 2.Coal 3.Petroleum

12. MET 112 12 Mitigation of climate change  Mitigation: –  Mitigation can include: –avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; – –rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environment

13. MET 112 13 Mitigation of climate change  Mitigation: –Steps taken to avoid or minimize negative environmental impacts.  Mitigation can include: –avoiding the impact by not taking a certain action; –minimizing impacts by limiting the degree or magnitude of the action; –rectifying the impact by repairing or restoring the affected environment

14. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ‘stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic human induced interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time- frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner’

15. MET 112 15 Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis WGI contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report Summary for Policymakers (SPM) Drafted by a team of 59 Approved ‘sentence by sentence’ by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists) 14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515 Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted

17. MET 112 17 IPCC Assessment Report  IPCC-(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) concluded –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). –Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) (IPCC) 1997 “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC), 2001 –Climate is expected to continue to change in the future; though there are still many uncertainties

18. MET 112 18 IPCC Assessment Report  IPCC-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –Greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (warming). –Anthropogenic aerosols tend to produce negative radiative forcing (cooling) “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” (IPCC) 1997 "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.“ (IPCC), 2001 (IPCC), 2001 –Climate is expected to continue to change in the future; though there are still many uncertainties

19. MET 112 19 The Kyoto Protocol  A United Nations sponsored effort: –Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. –The Protocol will go into force after 1. 1. 2.The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. –Current status:   US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 25% of CO 2 emitted) 

20. MET 112 20 The Kyoto Protocol  A United Nations sponsored effort: –Calls for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by industrialized countries of 5.2 per cent below 1990 levels. –The Protocol will go into force after 1.The protocol has been ratified by a minimum of 55 countries. 2.The ratifying nations comprise 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions. –Current status:  156 countries have signed accounting for 61% of global CO 2.  US not planning on signing protocol (US accounts for 36% of CO 2 emitted)  Kyoto protocol went into force in Feb 2005

21. MET 112 21 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –

22. MET 112 22 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy

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24. MET 112 24 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks

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26. MET 112 26 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture

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28. MET 112 28 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –

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35. MET 112 35 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ –

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37. MET 112 37 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ –Encourage ‘good practices’

40. MET 112 40 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol  Aim: –Ways to reduce increasing GHG  Goals: –Enhancement of energy efficiency in relevant sectors of the national economy –Protection and enhancement of sinks –Promote sustainable agriculture –Research and promote new and renewable energy –Phase out any incentives for ‘bad practice’ –Encourage ‘good practices’ –Cut GHG from aviation

41. MET 112 41 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol (II)  Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012   Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.  Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets 

42. MET 112 42 Articles of the Kyoto Protocol (II)  Keep to assigned amounts of GHG with overall worldwide reduction by at least 5% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012  Countries can meet their commitments together  Joint implementation -Countries can work together to meet their emission reduction targets.  Richer (annex 1) countries can help developing countries to achieve sustainable development and limit GHG increases and then claim some emission reductions for their own targets  Emissions trading - countries can trade in ‘emission units’

43. MET 112 43 Kyoto Targets  Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990  Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).  Calculated as an average –  Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCscarbon dioxidemethanenitrous oxidesulfur hexafluoride HFCsPFCs

44. MET 112 44 Kyoto Targets  Industrialized countries will reduce their collective emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990  Note that compared to the emissions levels by 2010 without the Protocol, this target represents ~30% cut).  Calculated as an average –over the five-year period of 2008-12.  Target includes six greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs, and PFCscarbon dioxidemethanenitrous oxidesulfur hexafluoride HFCsPFCs

45. MET 112 45 Kyoto Targets(2)  National targets –European Union –USA –Japan –Russia –Australia –Developing countries (no target)  China, India etc.

46. MET 112 46 Kyoto Targets(2)  National targets –European Union - 8% below 1990 levels –USA - 7% below 1990 –Japan - 6% below 1990 –Russia 0% (stay at 1990 levels) –Australia 8% over 1990 levels) –Developing countries (no target)  China, India etc.

47. MET 112 47 Kyoto Targets: Developing countries  The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1.The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases – 2.Per capita emissions in developing countries – 3.The share of global emissions originating in developing countries –will grow to meet their social and development needs.

48. MET 112 48 Kyoto Targets: Developing countries  The UN Framework on Climate has agreed: 1.The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases –has originated in developed countries; 2.Per capita emissions in developing countries –are still relatively low; 3.The share of global emissions originating in developing countries –will grow to meet their social and development needs.

49. MET 112 49 Emissions Trading  Each country has an emission limit.  If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.  This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.   Countries also receive carbon credits through –

50. MET 112 50 Emissions Trading  Each country has an emission limit.  If this country cannot meet it’s target, it may purchase carbon credits from other countries (on the open market) who are under their limit.  This financially rewards countries that meet their targets.  Example of Russia  Countries also receive carbon credits through –clean energy programs (i.e. greentags) –carbon dioxide sinks (i.e. forests, oceans)

51. MET 112 51 CO 2 emissions for various scenarios Kyoto’s eventual goal

52. "We will not do anything that harms our economy, because first things first are the people who live in America" - President Bush Main reasons the US will not sign the Kyoto Protocol? Economic burden No limits on developing countries (i.e. China, India) Protocol is not going to help much

53. Solutions - government   Kyoto Protocol   California potential leader

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57. Solutions - personal l l Transportation l l Home l l Food l l Consumption www.earthday.netwww.earthday.net : Top 10 Actions; Ecological Footprint

58. MET 112 58 Solutions - Consumption   Question your consumption urges   Material versus service based economy   Buy products that are in line with your values

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63. MET 112 63 Four R’s 1. 1.Rethink 2. 2.Reduce 3. 3.Reuse 4. 4.Recycle

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66. An economic analysis of the Kyoto protocol Nature 413, 478-479 October 2001 A key objection raised by opponents of the Kyoto Protocol is that compliance to the target of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions by 5.3% by 2012 would impose an unacceptable economic burden. Based on an analysis of alternative scenarios for electricity generation over the next ten years, De Leo et al. conclude that if the costs in terms of damage to human health, material goods, agriculture and the environment caused by greenhouse gas emissions are included in the equation, the economic argument against Kyoto is untenable.

67. MET 112 67 The US should sign the Kyoto Protocol 1.Strongly Agree 2.Agree 3.Neutral 4.Disagree 5.Strongly Disagree

68. Government should act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions even if it means raising energy prices 1.Strongly Agree 2.Agree 3.Neutral 4.Disagree 5.Strongly Disagree 0 of 66

69. If you were going to help mitigate global warming, which change would you feel most comfortable making. 1.Taking public transport more 2.Paying more for gasoline (i.e.1 dollar per gallon) 3.Altering your food choices 0 of 66

70. MET 112 70 Global warming is under way? 1.Strongly Agree 2.Agree 3.Neutral 4.Disagree 5.Strongly Disagree 0 of 66

71. MET 112 71 Global warming will affect your life? 1.Strongly Agree 2.Agree 3.Neutral 4.Disagree 5.Strongly Disagree 0 of 66

72. MET 112 72 In terms of global issues, which do you think is the most pressing? 1.Global Warming 2.Ozone Depletion 3.Global Terrorism 4.Aids 5.Global Poverty 0 of 66

73. Local/National Policies What are local/national governments doing to reduce GHG emissions? 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6.

74. MET 112 74 Metr112: Main points Let’s come up with the three most important points (i.e concepts or themes) covered in this course. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3.

75. MET 112 75 Summary Over the last 100 years and especially over the last thirty- five years, the Earth climate has experienced a significant warming trend. Current levels of greenhouse gases are higher than anytime over the last 400,000 years and likely longer. Science is confident that humans are responsible for a majority of the warming observed over the last 50 years. The Earth’s climate will continue to warm and this warming will place significant stress on social systems throughout the world. Climate change mitigation is necessary to reduce negative impacts.

76. MET 112 76 Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change  Impacts are worse – –already more flood and drought prone as a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors.  Harder to adapt –due to lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge.  Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, –exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

77. MET 112 77 Summary Climate change is potentially one of the Earth’s greatest challenges over the next few decades. How we as a planet choose to react to the threat of climate change is largely a political and economic issue. Solutions clearly require global action.

78. MET 112 78 Local Action: Does It Make a Difference? “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed it’s the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead.

79. MET 112 79 Tips to reduce  Transport –Drive less –Public transport –Carpool –Do errands on one trip –Don’t idle car –Check tire pressure  Residential –Check home insulation –Turn off electrical appliances (lights, TV, computers) when not in use –Replace standard light bulbs with low energy bulbs –Monitor your home heating/cooling by using thermostats

80. MET 112 80 Tips (continued)  Reduce your waste –Consider the packaging when purchasing goods. –Reuse bags –Recycle  Purchasing Power –Buy energy efficient light bulbs –Consider fuel economy when purchasing a vehicle

81. MET 112 81 Purchasing  Consider the implication when you buy something. –Was the product produced in an environmentally friendly manner. –Were the people who made the product treated fairly. –Do the values of the company selling the product match your own. –Low price doesn’t always mean the best deal for everybody…  It’s up to you to make the choice!

82. MET 112 82 Goal of education Critical Thinking So don’t be afraid to contemplate, examine and analyze…or in simple words…think.