1. Improvements to Statistical Forecast Models and the Satellite Proving Ground for 2013 Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR John Kaplan, Jason Dunion, NOAA/HRD Andrea Schumacher, Kate Musgrave, CIRA/CSU Buck Sampson, NRL Chris Rozoff, Chris Velden, Sarah Monette, UW/CIMSS Kevin Feuell, NASA/SPoRT Informal Briefing to NHC August 20, 2013 1

2. Outline 1.SHIPS/LGEM a.Updates for 2013 b.Experimental versions (SPICE and 7-day LGEM) 2.Wind speed probabilities 3.Rapid Intensification Index 1.Operational and experimental versions 4.JHT TCGI – Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index 5.The 2013 GOES-R proving ground a.Continuation of 2012 products b.Possible new products for 2013 c.Modifications to lightning RII and Tropical Overshooting Tops 2

3. SHIPS/LGEM Updates Only minor changes in 2013 –Moved to WCOSS (not minor in practice) Includes some small bug fixes to OHC data, and improved IR databases –TC database from HURDAT2 –2012 cases added –Also includes Storm Type, RII, SEF, AHI Suffering from the “Siege to Time”? –SHIPS sample 1982-2012 3

4. D-SHIPS and LGEM Operational Forecast Errors 2006-2012 4

5. Variance Reduction  V obs = V(t) – V(0)  V err =  V fcst -  V obs = V fcst -V obs s o 2 = Var(  V obs ) s e 2 = Var(  V err ) Variance Red. = 100(1-s e 2 /s o 2 ) 5

6. LGEM Variance Reduction Atlantic 2006-2012 6

7. SHIPS/LGEM Development JHT –Utilize new NCEP climate forecast reanalysis Better dependent, worse independent test results –7 day and Gulf-specific LGEM Significant reformulation of LGEM with new MPI Some real time tests expected in 2013 –New baseline models Trajectory CLIPER (track, intensity to 10 days) OCD5 – Decay SHIFOR in real time (WCOSS) –Intensity Guidance on Guidance 7

8. SHIPS/LGEM Development HFIP –SPICE Model SHIPS/LGEM run off GFS, GFDL, HWRF, (COTI) SHIPS/LGEM run off GFS Ensemble –SHIPS/LGEM with ECMWF input GOES-R –Storm size prediction With storm type, provides complete intensity/structure forecast 8

9. Wind Speed Probability Model Transitioned to WCOSS – Significant effort by TSB and RAMMB Standardized code between NHC operational machines and ATCF – All code now includes 2008-2012 and same version of model Hybrid version with global ensemble tracks, MC intensity/structure (HFIP products page) Revive Hurricane Landfall Probability Applications (HuLPA)

10. Hurricane Landfall Probability Application (HuLPA) User interface written for product testing – Hurricane Landfall Probability Applications (HuLPA) – Java program as ATCF prototype Applications – Landfall timing/intensity distributions – Time of arrival/departure distributions of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds – Integrated coastal probabilities – Automated guidance for watches/warnings – Plots of all 1000 realizations Updated version is compatible with Redhat 5, has been provided to M. Brennan at NHC

11. 5. GOES-R Proving Ground Aug 1-Nov 30, 2013 Start with same basic products as 2012 –Hurricane Intensity Estimate (HIE) –Super Rapid Scan Operations – Research imagery from GOES-14 –RGB air mass, Dust, SAL –Natural Color, Pseudo Natural Color –Lightning Based RII (updated algorithm) –Tropical Overshooting Tops (updated algorithm) Phase in 3 new products –MSG Convection and cloud top microphysics RGBs –S-NPP Day-Night Band J. Beven, M. Brennan, H. Cobb, NHC focal points M. DeMaria and M. Folmer coordinators Same web-based evaluation form as in 2013 11

12. Acknowledgments Joint Hurricane Testbed GOES Program Office –GIMPAP, GOES-R JPSS Program Office Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Naval Research Laboratory NOAA/NESDIS and NOAA/OAR 12