1. Humanitarian Intervention
Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 2, 2011

2. Humanitarian intervention
Definition:
‘forcible military intervention in humanitarian crises’
in failed states to secure aid
against murderous states to stop atrocities

3. The new interventionism
: 20 new missions
UN peacekeeping budget
* $230 m in 1988
* $800 m – $1.6 b in 1990s

4. Rare during Cold War Superpower stand-off Insufficient public pressure
UNSC log-jam

5. Traditional peacekeeping
Chapter VI and a half’ activity
- Required ceasefire and consent
Limited in number, size and scope
: 13 missions 
: none
- supervise truces

6. The blue helmets

7. UN Charter Article 2(3): Settle disputes by ‘peaceful means’
Article 2(4): refrain from ‘threat or use of force’
Article 2(7): non-intervention
Article 51: inherent ‘right of self-defence.’
Chapter VII: peace enforcement – in response to a ‘threat to international peace and security.’

8. Humanitarian? Not in name
India in East Pakistan (1971)
Tanzania in Uganda (1978)
Vietnam in Cambodia (1978)
France in Central African Republic (1979)

9. Cold war attitude
“The notion that because a regime is detestable foreign intervention is justified and forcible overthrow is legitimate is extremely dangerous. That could ultimately jeopardise the very maintenance of international law and order.” French rep to UNSC, on Vietnamese intervention in Cambodia, 1978

10. Many interventions
UN: Somalia ( ), Bosnia ( ), Cambodia ( ), East Timor (1999)
Coalition: northern Iraq (1991)
ECOWAS: Liberia (1990), Sierra Leone (1997)
CIS: Tajikistan (1993), Georgia (1992)
NATO: Kosovo (1999)

12. Serb thugs in action

13. UN impotence

14. Failure at Srebrenica

15. Somalia: mission over (1993)

17. Lessons from intervention failures
SOMALIA ( )
dangers of crossing the consent divide
BOSNIA ( )
dangers from peace spoilers 
need to induce consent

18. Shadow of Somalia
Agenda for Peace (1992) v. Supplement to an Agenda for Peace (1995)
PDD-25 The Clinton Administration’s Policy on Reforming Multilateral Peace Operations (1994)

20. Rwandan genocide 800,000 massacred in 100 days (April-July 1994)
Hutu extremists v. Tutsi and Hutu moderates

21. Causes of civil war
Mary Kaldor – ‘new wars’: identity, non-state actors, and low-tech.
Paul Collier – greed v. grievance: economic motives
Stuart Kaufman – elite manipulation v. mass moments: myths about ‘ancient hatreds’

22. Road to genocide Elite manipulation of tribal identity
Collapse in commodity prices
French military support to Hutu extremists
Tutsi RPF assault on Kigali in 1993 leads to inclusion of Tutsis in govt
The trigger: shooting down President’s plane (6 April 1994)

23. Rwanda, 1994

24. UN disgrace

25. UN Response UNAMIR reduced from 2,500 to 270 (21 April)
UNSCR 918 expands force to 5,500 (17 May) 
2,300 strong French force create “Humanitarian Protection Zone” (9 July)

26. Could intervention have worked?
the French success?
pace of slaughter?
UNAMIR warned of genocide

27. Politics of HI: public opinion
‘CNN effect’: dependent on degree of policy certainty and political unity
‘Bodybags effect’: misunderstood by policymakers

28. Politics of HI: UNSC politics
log-rolling problem 
veto problem 
posturing problem 
co-ordination problem

29. Peace ops: principles and practicalities
Objective – often ambiguous and unattainable
Unity of effort – divergent troop contributors
Mass – dispersal of forces
Surprise – little speed and secrecy in peace operations

30. Peace ops: public opinion and operational pathologies
Strategic compression of battlefield
Full-force protection
Over-reliance on air power 
Focus on exit strategies

31. Doctrine of International Community
Are we sure of our case?
Have we exhausted diplomatic options?
Does the military instrument offer prudent and achievable goals?
Are we prepared to be in this for the long term?
Is our national interest truly engage?
Tony Blair, Chicago, 22 April 1999

32. The future of humanitarian intervention?
Evolving norm
– state practice over time
– each intervention ‘unique’?
International Criminal Court: agent for action
R2P, Kosovo and Iraq – rising powers push back
Western appetite post Iraq and Afghanistan?