1. Analyzing the task Thomas R. Stewart, Ph.D. Center for Policy Research Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy University at Albany State University of New York T.STEWART@ALBANY.EDU Public Administration and Policy PAD634 Judgment and Decision Making Behavior

2. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)2 This list contains examples of questions that can be addressed in order to analyze judgment and decision problems. Not all questions are relevant for all problems. Furthermore, there may be questions not listed here that are critical for understanding a particular task. Analyzing the task

3. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)3 Judgment strategies Model 1 Two step (lens model) – Linear – Acquire cues, then make judgment Model 2 Hypothesis testing, problem solving – Iterative – Make and revise cue judgments and overall judgments at the same time

4. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)4 Model 1 Two step (lens model) Image or environment Judge cuesCue 1 Cue 2 Cue 3 Judgment

5. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)5 Model 2 Hypothesis testing, problem solving Image or environment Cue 1 Cue 2 Cue 3 Hypothesis (tentative judgment) Judge cues to check hypothesis Judgment

6. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)6 General characteristics These characteristics are usually identified by interview, observation, review of descriptive materials. What information is available? Is the amount of information a problem (too much or too little)? What costs are involved in obtaining information? Is the task dynamic or static? Is the problem repetitive or one-time (or infrequent)? How reliable are the data? How much redundancy is there in the data? How is the information obtained/displayed?

7. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)7 General characteristics How is the information organized? – Physically – Mentally Structuring the problem Influence diagrams Mental models

8. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)8 General characteristics What judgments and decisions are made? – What alternative choices are available? – Are choices continuous or discrete?

9. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)9 General characteristics Who is involved? – Individual – Group Consensus? Hierarchy?

10. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)10 General characteristics What moral or ethical issues are involved? What role does emotion play in the decision process? What aspects of the procedures are relevant? – Time pressure? – Documentation? – Justification?

11. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)11 General characteristics How high is task uncertainty? What are the sources of uncertainty (aleatory, epistemic)? What is the base rate?

12. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)12 General characteristics

13. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)13 General characteristics What are the opportunities for learning? – Is manipulation possible? – What feedback is available? – How do the judges know if they are right or wrong? – What is the speed and frequency of feedback?

14. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)14 General characteristics What are the opportunities for learning? – Is manipulation possible? – What feedback is available? – How do the judges know if they are right or wrong? – What is the speed and frequency of feedback?

15. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)15 Autopsies – feedback in medicine Shojania, K. G., & Burton, E. C. (2008). The Vanishing Nonforensic Autopsy. New England Journal of Medicine, 358(9), 873-875.

16. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)16 General characteristics How stable are relationships over time? – Cue/Cue relationships – Cue/Criterion relationships

17. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)17 General characteristics What are the rewards/penalties for good/bad decisions? – False positives, false negatives, true positives, true negatives Analysis of errors – What might cause errors? – What safeguards are in place to prevent errors? – What errors have occurred in the past?

18. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)18 Specific characteristics These are important in Social Judgment Theory and the Cognitive Continuum Theory. They are usually difficult to ascertain without formally structuring the task and collecting data.

19. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)19 Specific characteristics Complexity of task structure – Texture of judgment scale – Number of cues – Vicarious mediation – Cue distribution – Weights – Organizing principle

20. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)20 Specific characteristics Ambiguity of task content – Availability of an organizing principle – Feedback Task outcome available Other feedback (e.g., cognitive) – Familiarity with content

21. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)21 Specific characteristics Form of task presentation – Simultaneous or sequential? – Task decomposition – Cognitive decomposition – Type of cue data – Type of cue definition – Response time permitted or implied

22. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)22 Statistical analysis of task properties These overlap with specific characteristics, and can only be done for repetitive judgments. Case 1: Cue and criterion data are available – Criterion distribution (base rate) – Cue distributions – Cue interrelations – Cue reliability – Task uncertainty/predictability Linear Nonlinear – Weight sensitivity

23. PAD634 (analyzing-the-task.ppt)23 Statistical analysis of task properties For cases 2-4, we have to rely on the judgments of experienced judges to infer task properties that cannot be directly analyzed. – Case 2: Criterion data available, but not cue data – Case 3: Cue data available, but not criterion data – Case 4: No task data available