2. September 2012 EFCC Weather Update

3. September 2012 EFCC Weather Update

4. Briefing Format

5. This Season So Far Next ~6 weeks Winter/Summer Outlook 2013 This Season So Far Next ~6 weeks Winter/Summer Outlook 2013

6. So Far… 2012 Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres

7. So Far… 201210 Year Average Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres255 Fires/16,526 Acres Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres511 Fires/3,359 Acres Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres766 Fires/19,885 Acres

8. So Far… 201210 Year Average Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres255 Fires/16,526 Acres Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres511 Fires/3,359 Acres Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres766 Fires/19,885 Acres Data through August 30th

9. So Far…

20. Cool

21. So Far… Cool

22. So Far… Cool Increasing (Wet) Flat (Dry)

23. So Far…

26. Remainder Fire Season

27. Temperature Sep-Oct-Nov

28. Remainder Fire Season Precipitation Sep-Oct-Nov

29. Tropical Pacific Ocean ODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño” this autumn El Niño La Niña (2008-09; 1971-72; 1950-51)

30. September 2012 Forecast TemperaturesPrecipitation Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast). Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast). Analog years favor near to slightly below normal precipitation. Analog years favor near to slightly below normal precipitation.

31. October 2012 Forecast TemperaturesPrecipitation Analog years consistently favor below normal temperatures. Analog years consistently favor below normal temperatures. Analogs have more variation with regards to precipitation, so there is less confidence in the forecast for “damp” conditions. Analogs have more variation with regards to precipitation, so there is less confidence in the forecast for “damp” conditions.

32. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer La Niña El Niño

33. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer El Nino conditions fall and winter drifting back toward Neutral conditions spring and summer.

34. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer Temperature Dec-Feb- Mar

35. Precipitation Dec-Feb- Mar Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer

36. Temperature Jun-Jul-Aug

37. Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer Precipitation Jun-Jul-Aug

38. Bottom Line:

39. At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.

40. Bottom Line: At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season. El Nino winter...Neutral Spring/Summer At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season. El Nino winter...Neutral Spring/Summer

41. jlittle@odf.state.or.us EFCC Weather Update

42. jlittle@odf.state.or.us EFCC Weather Update

43. jlittle@odf.state.or.us EFCC Weather Update