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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion
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After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs All The Way Back & More -600,000 Government Jobs +10,380,000 Private Sector (119.2%)
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California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,066,400 Defense Cutbacks Dot.Com Great Recession 2011-2014 +1,315,558 2014 Up +249,158 Recovery
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Highest Unemployment Rates Major U.S. Metro Areas
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Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 116,208 of 143,108 lost or 81.2% 26,900 Jobs To Go 34,475
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Primary Tier Secondary Tier Economic Development … Increase The Economic Base! How Regional Economies Work
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Poverty Rates, 2013 Children Under 18 All People
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High School or Less
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BA or Higher
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Construction & Real Estate: Finally Some Hope
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Share of Underwater Homes Plunging
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Notices of Default At Low Levels
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Home Price Trends 71.3% 40.9% Above Existing Home -34.7% 2014,
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Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists
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Home Sales Volume Stagnant
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Mortgage Credit Easing A little Credit standards on mortgage loans that your bank categorizes as prime residential mortgages have:
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Permits: Just A Little Hope
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Why Low Volume Less Foreclosures Buyers Want or Need High Prices Continued Wall Street Acquisition of Large Share of Foreclosures Credit Hurt By Foreclosures Higher FICO Scores FHA Lowering Conforming Mortgage Ceiling From $500,000 to $350,000 Fear
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Why Home Construction’s Return Is Important 3,150 Jobs Lost 2007-2011: -68,433 Job Gain 2012-2014: 18,375 Job Deficit: -50,158 Median Pay $51,953
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Inland Empire’s In-migration From Coastal Counties Has Not Recovered -27,324 Not Bringing Skills, Wealth, Income & Spending
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Assessed Valuation Growing Again Down: -4.0% Inflation: +7.8%
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Construction & Mining Job Growth Median Pay $51,923
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Strong Industrial Growth
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Industrial Construction
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Logistics Flow of Goods
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Port Container Volumes
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Fulfillment Centers
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E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter
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Logistics Job Growth & Why It Is Important 18.8% of All Inland Jobs in 2013 15.5% So Far in 2014 Median Pay $43,911
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CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level Monitoring Sites Mira Loma-Van Buren Riverside- Magnolia Riverside- Rubidoux Fontana-Arrow Highway Ontario-1408 Francis Street San Bernardino- 4th Street 2001 120.258.279.580.8 2002 88.492.673.767.488.9 2003 69.778.154.362.255.2 2004 *47.857.3*** 2005 **39.722.925.39.3 2006 46.231.3*27.2** 2007 43.4***** 2008 *12.415.019.319.49.5 2009 19.06.015.16.29.06.2 2010 8.06.34.06.63.25.9 2011 13.07.15.07.16.8* 2012 7.0* 10.60.0 2013 9.23.06.23.00.03.3 Change From Highest -37.0-85.4-114.0-70.7-79.5-85.6 Change -80.1%-96.6%-94.8%-95.9%-100.0%-96.3% Net Absorptiont Since Highest 101,204,114198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217
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Manufacturing: Could Be A Major Growth Source
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California Just 1.0% of U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth
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Manufacturing Non-Job Growth! Median Pay $48,923
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Causes of Public Health Difficulties 1.Socio-Economics 40% 2.Population’s Health Behaviors30% 3.Access to Medical Care20% 4.Environmental 10% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010 90%
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What is Needed To Attack Poverty? Short Course Adult Training in Specific Skills Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median Incomes Sectors That Are Adding Jobs
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Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs, Minimum Entry Level Requirements Middle Class Earnings, Minimum Skills To Enter
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Issue Fundamentally: Blue Collar Sector Growth Needed To Allow Marginally Educated To Access the Middle Class Manufacturing Logistics Construction Mining, Oil & Gas EPA-AQMD Standards Eliminating Ability of these Sectors to Grow Poverty is Exacerbated as a Result!
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Health Care
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Inland Empire Underserved
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Health Care Demand Set To Explode People Without Health Insurance (2013) 836,689 (19.7, 19.0%) People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 962,260 (23.3%, 20.5%) Population Growth Will Resume (2000-2013) 734,580 (47.5%) 375,530 (22.0%) Inland Health Care Workers Handle More People Than CA (28%)
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ACS Enrollment Statistics: Inland Empire Source: Covered California www.coveredca.com Inland Empire represents 8.8% of CA enrollment CaliforniaInland Empire Non-Subsidized 173,609 12,428 Subsidy Eligible1,222,320110,543 Total1,395,929122,971 Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014
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Health Care Job Growth … Modest! Median Pay $55,475
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Skilled Workers Skilled Workers Migrate Inland For Better Homes
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Higher End Homes $560,458 $418,634 $479,341 6 UPLAND EASTVALE $475,498 $473,351 $435,873 CORONA $443,870 TEMECULA $350,479$397,927 $347,075 $329,924 Loma Linda
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Migration of Educated Workers
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Office Absorption Follows Higher-End Workers High-End Jobs Follow Workers into the Area
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Office Vacancy Rates Improving But Still Very High 17.0% 24.0%
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Office Based Job Growth
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High Income Private Sector Office Jobs
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Primary Tier Secondary Tier How Regional Economies Work
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2014 Retail Sales Head For 6.6% Above Pre-Recession Peak 15.2% Inflation
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Job Growth: Population Serving Jobs
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Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 116,208 of 143,108 lost or 81.2% 26,900 Jobs To Go 34,475
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Job Growth By Market Area, August YTD
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Forecast: Review 2014 Better Than 2013 Construction Returning Logistics Strong Manufacturing Weak Health Care Set To Take-Off Office Sectors Modest Pop. Related Group Gaining Govt & Education Crawling Unemployment Drops to 8.5% Growth Looking Normal 21,802 Jobs Below Pre-Recession
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www.johnhusing.com
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