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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion.

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Presentation on theme: "John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion."— Presentation transcript:

1 John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Economic Growth... Building An Expansion

2 After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs All The Way Back & More -600,000 Government Jobs +10,380,000 Private Sector (119.2%)

3 California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,066,400 Defense Cutbacks Dot.Com Great Recession 2011-2014 +1,315,558 2014 Up +249,158 Recovery

4 Highest Unemployment Rates Major U.S. Metro Areas

5 Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 116,208 of 143,108 lost or 81.2% 26,900 Jobs To Go 34,475

6 Primary Tier Secondary Tier Economic Development … Increase The Economic Base! How Regional Economies Work

7 Poverty Rates, 2013 Children Under 18 All People

8 High School or Less

9 BA or Higher

10 Construction & Real Estate: Finally Some Hope

11 Share of Underwater Homes Plunging

12 Notices of Default At Low Levels

13 Home Price Trends 71.3% 40.9% Above Existing Home -34.7% 2014,

14 Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists

15 Home Sales Volume Stagnant

16 Mortgage Credit Easing A little Credit standards on mortgage loans that your bank categorizes as prime residential mortgages have:

17 Permits: Just A Little Hope

18 Why Low Volume Less Foreclosures Buyers Want or Need High Prices Continued Wall Street Acquisition of Large Share of Foreclosures Credit Hurt By Foreclosures Higher FICO Scores FHA Lowering Conforming Mortgage Ceiling From $500,000 to $350,000 Fear

19 Why Home Construction’s Return Is Important 3,150 Jobs Lost 2007-2011: -68,433 Job Gain 2012-2014: 18,375 Job Deficit: -50,158 Median Pay $51,953

20 Inland Empire’s In-migration From Coastal Counties Has Not Recovered -27,324 Not Bringing Skills, Wealth, Income & Spending

21 Assessed Valuation Growing Again Down: -4.0% Inflation: +7.8%

22 Construction & Mining Job Growth Median Pay $51,923

23 Strong Industrial Growth

24 Industrial Construction

25 Logistics Flow of Goods

26 Port Container Volumes

27 Fulfillment Centers

28 E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter

29 Logistics Job Growth & Why It Is Important 18.8% of All Inland Jobs in 2013 15.5% So Far in 2014 Median Pay $43,911

30 CARB: Diesel Pollution Is Disappearing Exhibit 6.-PM 2.5 Days over National Standard vs. Total Square Feet of Net Industrial Absorption Since Highest PM2.5 level Monitoring Sites Mira Loma-Van Buren Riverside- Magnolia Riverside- Rubidoux Fontana-Arrow Highway Ontario-1408 Francis Street San Bernardino- 4th Street 2001 120.258.279.580.8 2002 88.492.673.767.488.9 2003 69.778.154.362.255.2 2004 *47.857.3*** 2005 **39.722.925.39.3 2006 46.231.3*27.2** 2007 43.4***** 2008 *12.415.019.319.49.5 2009 19.06.015.16.29.06.2 2010 8.06.34.06.63.25.9 2011 13.07.15.07.16.8* 2012 7.0* 10.60.0 2013 9.23.06.23.00.03.3 Change From Highest -37.0-85.4-114.0-70.7-79.5-85.6 Change -80.1%-96.6%-94.8%-95.9%-100.0%-96.3% Net Absorptiont Since Highest 101,204,114198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217244,793,404198,737,217

31 Manufacturing: Could Be A Major Growth Source

32 California Just 1.0% of U.S. Manufacturing Job Growth

33 Manufacturing Non-Job Growth! Median Pay $48,923

34 Causes of Public Health Difficulties 1.Socio-Economics 40% 2.Population’s Health Behaviors30% 3.Access to Medical Care20% 4.Environmental 10% Source: Different Perspectives For Assigning Weights To Determinants of Health, University of Wisconsin, Public Health Institute, 2010 90%

35 What is Needed To Attack Poverty? Short Course Adult Training in Specific Skills Sectors With Few Education Barriers to Entry Median Incomes Approaching Middle Class Earnings Skill Ladders Up Which Workers Can Move To Median Incomes Sectors That Are Adding Jobs

36 Median Incomes Near To Middle Class Needs, Minimum Entry Level Requirements Middle Class Earnings, Minimum Skills To Enter

37 Issue Fundamentally: Blue Collar Sector Growth Needed To Allow Marginally Educated To Access the Middle Class Manufacturing Logistics Construction Mining, Oil & Gas EPA-AQMD Standards Eliminating Ability of these Sectors to Grow Poverty is Exacerbated as a Result!

38 Health Care

39 Inland Empire Underserved

40 Health Care Demand Set To Explode People Without Health Insurance (2013) 836,689 (19.7, 19.0%) People Will Age, Already 55 & Over 962,260 (23.3%, 20.5%) Population Growth Will Resume (2000-2013) 734,580 (47.5%) 375,530 (22.0%) Inland Health Care Workers Handle More People Than CA (28%)

41 ACS Enrollment Statistics: Inland Empire Source: Covered California www.coveredca.com Inland Empire represents 8.8% of CA enrollment CaliforniaInland Empire Non-Subsidized 173,609 12,428 Subsidy Eligible1,222,320110,543 Total1,395,929122,971 Oct. 1, 2013 through Mar.31, 2014

42 Health Care Job Growth … Modest! Median Pay $55,475

43 Skilled Workers Skilled Workers Migrate Inland For Better Homes

44 Higher End Homes $560,458 $418,634 $479,341 6 UPLAND EASTVALE $475,498 $473,351 $435,873 CORONA $443,870 TEMECULA $350,479$397,927 $347,075 $329,924 Loma Linda

45 Migration of Educated Workers

46 Office Absorption Follows Higher-End Workers High-End Jobs Follow Workers into the Area

47 Office Vacancy Rates Improving But Still Very High 17.0% 24.0%

48 Office Based Job Growth

49 High Income Private Sector Office Jobs

50 Primary Tier Secondary Tier How Regional Economies Work

51 2014 Retail Sales Head For 6.6% Above Pre-Recession Peak 15.2% Inflation

52 Job Growth: Population Serving Jobs

53 Where Is the IE In Its Job History? 2011-2014 116,208 of 143,108 lost or 81.2% 26,900 Jobs To Go 34,475

54 Job Growth By Market Area, August YTD

55 Forecast: Review 2014 Better Than 2013 Construction Returning Logistics Strong Manufacturing Weak Health Care Set To Take-Off Office Sectors Modest Pop. Related Group Gaining Govt & Education Crawling Unemployment Drops to 8.5% Growth Looking Normal 21,802 Jobs Below Pre-Recession

56 www.johnhusing.com


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