1. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 The Climatic Impacts on Indian Agriculture K. Krishna Kumar K. Rupa Kumar, R.G. Ashrit, N.R. Deshpande and James Hansen (IRI, New York) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India (krishna@tropmet.res.in)

2. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Objectives To generate data on all-India and state-level Agricultural Indices To generate data on all-India and state-level Agricultural Indices To Identify Crops and Regions in India having strong Climatic Signal which can be used for Developing various Climate Applications initiatives/programs involving National and Multi-national Institutions and Individual Scientists To Identify Crops and Regions in India having strong Climatic Signal which can be used for Developing various Climate Applications initiatives/programs involving National and Multi-national Institutions and Individual Scientists Establishing Climate Signal in various Agricultural Indices has implications for Climate Change Impact Assessment Studies as well Establishing Climate Signal in various Agricultural Indices has implications for Climate Change Impact Assessment Studies as well

3. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Agriculture Facts   India lives mainly in its villages, 600,000 of them   Roughly 65% of the population is rural   India’s growth in per capita food production during 1979-92 was about 1.6% per annum – the highest in the world during this period   Agriculture provides livelihood to about 65% of the labor force   Agriculture contributes nearly 29% to the GDP   In terms of fertilizer consumption, India ranks 4 th in the world   About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agriculture

4. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 IRRIGATIONCrop Area under crop (mn. hec) Irrigated area under crop (mn. hec.) Irrigated area as % of total area under crops Foodgrains1214537 Rice431945 Wheat231984 Non- foodgrains 611931 Groundnut9220 Cotton7333 Sugarcane4386 Total1836435

5. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 DATA Production/Area/ Yield Total foodgrains Kharif/Rabi Rice Winter Wheat Groundnut Sorghum Cereals Oilseeds Pulses SugarcaneSource Agricultural Situation in India Agricultural Situation in India India Data Base India Data BaseOrganizations Center for Monitoring Indian Economy Center for Monitoring Indian Economy Dept. of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India Dept. of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. of India

6. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Crop Areas

7. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Monsoon Variability IntraseasonalInterannualDecadal/CenturyMillennia & longer Onset/withdrawal; Active and break- monsoon phases; 30-50 day oscillations; severe rainstorms Droughts and floods Changes in the frequency of droughts and floods Changes in the areal extents of monsoons Atmospheric variability; tropical- midlatitude interactions; Soil moisture; Sea surface temperatures Atmospheric interactions; El Niño/ Southern Oscillation; Top layers of tropical oceans; Snow cover; Land surface characteristics Monsoon circulation variations; Deep ocean changes; Greenhouse gases increase; Human activities; Biospheric changes; Volcanic dust Global climate excursions; Ice ages; Warm epochs; Sun-earth geometry Factors Features

8. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Mean Annual Cycle of All-India Mean Monthly Rainfall

9. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 All-India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (1871-2001) (Based on IITM Homogeneous Monthly Rainfall Data Set)

10. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

11. JJA-1 JJA-1 SON-1 DJF-1 MAM

12. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Regional Climate Signal in Indian Agriculture Indices

13. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Area under Major Food Crops in India and % Irrigated during 1950- 1998

14. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Total Foodgrain Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

15. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Kharif Rice Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

16. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Total Wheat Production in India and its Relation to Indian Rainfall

17. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Kharif Groundnut Production and its relation to Indian Rainfall

18. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Total Sorghum Production and its relation to Indian Rainfall

19. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003 Global Climate Signal in Indian Agriculture

20. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003

28. Summary   Most rainfed crops show statistically significant relation with Regional and Global Climatic Factors, the exception being Sorghum.   Wheat and Sugarcane, the two most irrigated crops, do not show any climatic signal.   Groundnut and Kharif (Summer) Rice in India show very strong regional and global climatic signals and should be targeted for climate application as well as climate change impact assessment studies.

29. PROMISE-ICTP Meeting 24-28 March, 2003