1. 1 Ocean Modeling Network & the Virtual Ocean YI CHAO (Yi.Chao@jpl.nasa.gov; 818-354-8168) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology Pasadena, California October 18, 2007

2. 2 Ocean Models defined in my talk

3. 3 Modeling should be an essential component of OOI Model can be used to –Fill the data gap: ocean will be always under-sampled (much more so than the atmosphere) Model can be used to –Forecast into the future: observation can only tell what happens today –Weather forecast as a success story for the atmospheric sciences Model can also be used to test hypothesis, diagnostic analysis, close the budget, dT/dt = A ● t + B – C * D / E

4. 4 Linking Physics, Biology, Marine Ecosystem with Marine Mammals Enabled by CI Natural Variability (e.g., El Nino) Climate Change (e.g., Global Warming) Local Wind Change Ocean Circulation Upwelling Convergence Divergence Nutrient Supply: Nitrate Phosphate Silicate Iron Phytoplankton Zooplankton Population Change Fishery Collapse Endangered Species Migration Behavior Diving Patterns

5. 5 Data Input Ocean Modeling Services Synthesis Products User Community Education Public Awareness Observatories (global, regional & coastal) Observation Network Design (OSSEs) Integrating Data and Model for Science/Applications Feedback Forecasting

6. 6 Virtual Ocean Observatory/Simulator Click to see the movie

7. 7 Ocean has multiple scales: From Global to Regional and Coastal 100-km; years Modeling network needs to integrate all three observatories 10-km; hours/days 100-km; years 1000-km, decades Global Coastal Regional

8. 8 What is the problem size for the Virtual Ocean? Linking the 3-Observatory at the highest resolution possible 360 (longitude) x 100 (1km/grid) x180 (latitude) x 100 (1km/grid) x 100 (depth) x 5 (para.) x 8 (byte) = 2.6 TB/snapshot =(360x180x100x5x8 job/cpu) x 10000 cpu Dedicated computers Computers on Grids Distributed computers

9. 9 Real-Time Ocean Forecast for Southern California http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/SCB/index.jsp

10. 10 Core: Ocean Model & Data Assimilation System Initialization for Forecasting X t+1 nowcast/analysis = X t forecast + δx Min(Data-Model) δxδx Time X t nowcast X t+1 forecast X t+1 nowcast 00Z 06Z (Assimilation window) X t+1 forecast = M ● X t nowcast

11. 11 On-Demand Modeling: Users select their own modeling configurations, submit runs, and analyze results all through a web portal

12. 12 Pre-deployment: Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) Post-deployment: Observing System Experiments (OSEs) & 6-hour real-time data processing modeling and data assimilation workflow Observatory data Virtual Ocean Design, Testing and Deploy Models Data Assimilation Data Analysis Science Questions & Drivers ~ 500 m ~3 km Sensor & Platform Data Synthesis: Nowcast & Data Impact End-to-end traceability from science objectives to sensors and infrastructure

13. 13 The Virtual Ocean: from Global to Regional and Coastal