1. FINAL MEETING – OTHER METHODS Development Workshop

2. General conclusions on causal analyses Magic tool of „ceteris paribus” – Regression is ceteris paribus by definition – But the data need not to be – they are just a subsample of general populations and many other things confound Causal effects, i.e. cause and effect – Propensity Score Matching – Regression Discontinuity – Fixed Effects – Instrumental Variables 2

3. If we cannot experiment..… 3 Cross-sectional data Panel data „Regression Discontinuity Design“ „Propensity Score Matching“ IV Before After Estimators Difference in Difference Estimators (DiD) „Propensity Score Matching“ + DiD

4. Problems with causal inference 4 Confounding Influence (environment) Treatment Effect Observables Unobservables

5. Instrumental Variables solution… Confounding Influence Treatment Outcome Instrumental Variable(s) Observed Factor Unobserved Factor

6. Fixed Effects Solution… (DiD does pretty much the same) Confounding Influence Treatment Outcome Fixed Influences Observed Factor Unobserved Factor

7. Propensity Score Matching Confounding Influence Treatment Outcome Treatment Observed Factor Unobserved Factor

8. Regression Discontinuity Design Confounding Influence Treatment Effect Group that is key for this policy Observables Unobservables 8

9. A motivating story Today women in Poland have on average 1,7 kid About 50 years ago, women had 2,8 kids Todays women are 6 times more educated than 50 years ago – will a drop from 2.8 to 1.7 be an effect of this educational change? Natural experiment: in 1960 schooling obligation was extended by one year (11 to 12 years). – THE SAME women born just before 1953 went to primary and secondary schools a year shorter than born after 1953 – THE SAME = ? RD allows to compare fertility (with individual characteristics) for women born around 1953 9

10. Regression Discontinuity Design Idea – Focus your analyses on a group for which treament was random (or rather: independent) How to do it? – Example: weaker students have lower grades, but are also frequently „delayed” to repeat courses/years; if we give them extra classes, better students will outperform them anyway, so how to test if extra classes help? – RDD will compare the performance of students just above and just below „threshold”, so quite similar ones – RDD will only work if people cannot „prevent” or „encourage” treatment by relocating themselves around „threshold” 10

11. Regression Discontinuity Design Advantages: – Really marginal effect – Causal, if RDD well applied Disadvantages: – Sample size largely limited – Only „local” character of estimations (marginal≠average) Problems: – How do we know how far away from threshold can we go (bandwidth)? – How do we know if design is ok.? 11

12. Regression Discontinuity Design Zastosowanie – Trade off between narrow “bandwidth” (for independence assumption) and wide “bandwidth” to increase sample size – One can try to find it empirically ( “fuzzy” RD design) – Y is the effect, p is treatment probability. + is effect of probability just above „cut-off” - is effect of probability just below „cut-off” 12

13. Regression Discontinuity Design 13

14. Regression Discontinuity Design 14

15. Regression Discontinuity Design 15

16. 16 How to do this in STATA? First – download package: net instal rd Second – define your model – rd $out, treatment, $in [if] [in] [weight] [, options] Third – there are some options – mbw(numlist) multiplication of „bandwidth” in percent (default: "100 50 200" which means we always do 50%, 100% and 200%) – z0(real) sets cutoff Z0 (treatment) – ddens asks for extra estimation of discontinuities in Z density – graph – draws graphs we’ve seen automatically

17. Sample results in STATA - data

18. Output from STATA 18

19. Output from STATA - graph

20. Output from STATA –„fuzzy” version 20 gen byte ranwin=cond(uniform()<.1,1-win,win) rd lne ranwin d, mbw(25(25)300) bdep ox

21. Quintile regressions One last thing

22. A motivating story

23. Some basics „doubts” of an empirical economist… Compare similar to similar Keep statistical properties Understand bezond „average x” Understand (and be independent of) „outliers”

24. Robust estimators First flavour of robust – regression with robust option – Helps if problem is not systematic – Does not help if problem is the nature of the process (e.g. heterogeneity) Second flavour of robust – nonparametric estimators – Complex from mathematical point of view – Takes longer to compute – But veeeery elastic => Koenker (and his followers)

25. How to do this in STATA? Estimate at median – qreg y $in Estimate at any other percentile – qreg y $in, quantile(q) where q is your percentile Estimate differences between different percentiles – iqreg y $in, quantile(.25.75) reps(100) + additionally may bootstrap

26. Output from STATA

28. Summarising all this crap Confounding Influence (environment) Treatment Effect Observables Unobservables

29. Problems Sample – size – heterogeneity Methods – None is perfect – Question important – Nonparametric (kernel in PSM or QR) are robust, robust is not a synonim for miraculous