1. CLIMATE CHANGE Iracema FA Cavalcanti Simone Ferraz Gabriela Muler Kelen Andrade Wagner Sares

2. Identification of problems to climate change analysis Data: Confidence on observed data (present) Comparison of station observed data with NCEP data/CMAP/GPCP/CPC Models: Confidence on Models Representation of present climate Read the IPCC 2007 report

3. GCMs: IPCC Large scale features are reproduced by the models but the regional aspects need to bee analyzed in regional models. Problems : Amazon Precipitation, ITCZ, SACZ Regions where the models agree: NW (more); South (more); SW (less) GCModels: some Models are better than others over South America Confidence in some regions (where the good models agree) Uncertainty in results Confidence on Mean Temperature : Warming in all models

4. Suggestion to IPCC model results Take the ensemble of models which give good results in some regions and give weights to different parts and then do the ensemble.

5. REGIONAL MODELS Regional models have been tested: REGCM3; ETA The models are still been adjusted PRECIS HADRM3P: LLJ Large scale aspects close to South America have been simulated, but indices and regional features still need to be analyzed

6. Need of other techniques applications The models can simulate the variability patterns (dipole north-south) Then, there is a need to apply other thechniques to extract the configuration in other parts, as southeast (less) and northeast (less) Techniques to be used: EOF, Correlation, SDV, etc Analyze the intraseasonal variability in IPCC results and regional models The dipole north-south is intensified in scenarios of climate change (the intratraseasonal variability will increase?) Interannual and interdecadal variability

7. ANALYZE THE MECHANISMS How the mechanisms that influence the precipitation over South America will change in the future?

8. Mechanisms SST (More El Ninos or stronger? ) (Pacific and Atlantic, Indian: How affect SACZ; ITCZ Antarctica Oscillation Variability (Intensity?) North Atlantic Oscillation PSA Madden Julian Indian dipole ZCPS PDO Monsoon (rainy season- onset-demise) Teleconnections and Rossby wave propagation

9. Behavior of synoptic systems Frontal systems, cyclonic vortex, LLJ, jet-stream Mesoscale: MCS, LI instability (?) Cases of cold air outbreaks : reduction but intensity?) How the mechanisms that influence the precipitation over South merica Will change in the future? Apply indices associated with systems

10. Besides the uncertainty we can extract information from results. Analyse Extremes (IPCC models show increase of extremes) Apply indices associated with systems

11. IMPROVEMENTS IN MODELS Models: Improvements in radiation, surface- atmosphere interaction, Dynamic vegetation (how CO2 will influence vegetation ) Atmospheric Chemistry Stratospheric air intrusion (O3) Understanding of process in models

12. APPLICATIONS Fishering Agriculture Hydroelectricity Provide elements to mitigation Actions in regions to wait the future changes (flooding; droughts, etc)