1. AUSTIN SCHOOL DISTRICT

2.  Total Enrollment 2010-11  Actual ▪ 4,399 (10/01/10)  Projections ▪ 4,399 High K/High Migration ▪ 4,394 Middle K/High Migration ▪ 4,352 Middle K/Low Migration ▪ 4,352 Low K/Low Migration

3.  Kindergarten  Actual ▪ 363 (10/01/10)  Projections ▪ 365 Low and Middle Assumptions ▪ 370 High Assumption

4.  Community characteristics  Distribution of students by grade  Resident births  Education choice decisions  Housing: type and increase by type

5.  Austin Public Schools’ enrollment growth in the past four years is atypical in Minnesota  White, not Hispanic, enrollment declined while minority, especially Hispanic, enrollment increased  Minority students are now 31% of the student body  District residents are less likely to chose other education options than students statewide

6.  Austin Public Schools’ capture rate of district residents rose over the past ten years, which is also atypical in Minnesota  Resident births in Mower County and Austin City increased dramatically, which is a good indicator of future enrollment growth  The current grade distribution by grade predicts enrollment growth  Austin Public Schools are projected to grow

7.  Enrollment is projected to increase from 4,373 to 4,739 (2014-15) to 4,967 (2019-20) based on the lowest projection  Minority students will continue to be a large share of the student body and may account for nearly 40% of all students in five years  The net in migration of the past year may be an anomaly  When used in projections, the projections are high

8.  K-12 enrollment is 161 students higher than in 2000-01  Prior to 2005-06 enrollment declined  2005-06 was first year of all day kindergarten  Past four years, enrollment up 160 students or 3.8%

9. YearK-12 Enrollment 2000-014,212 2001-024,099 2002-034,081 2003-044,021 2004-054,069 2005-064,213 2006-074,212 2007-084,223 2008-094,257 2009-104,373 2010-114,399

10. CHANGE Change 2000-012009-10NumberPercent Total4,2124,3731613.8% White3,6662,998-668-18.2% Minority5461,375829151.8% Percent Minority13.0%31.4%

11.  Natural increase  Fall kindergarten class is larger than the previous year’s Grade 12  Natural increase often results in enrollment growth  Net migration tends to be negative  Past year a big exception

12. COMPONENTS OF CHANGE Fall to FallTotal Natural Increase/DecreaseNet Migration 2000 to 2001-113-33-80 2001 to 2002-1811-29 2002 to 2003-60-17-42 2003 to 200448408 2004 to 200514492*52 2005 to 200630-31 2006 to 20071180-69 2007 to 20083485-51 2008 to 20091164670

13.  Nonpublic school enrollment decreased  Nonpublic schools enroll:  8.1% of the district’s school age population  8.7% in Minnesota  Home schools enroll:  1.4% of the district’s school age population  1.7% in Minnesota

14.  Open enrollment in (128)  2.0% of Austin Public School enrollment (2008-09)  Open enrollment out (153)  3.0% of Austin’s school age population (2008-09)  4.9% of Minnesota students opt for open enrollment

15.  Charter schools (0)  None of Austin’s school age population  3.6% of Minnesota students

16.  District’s school age population increasing  2003-04 to 2008-09 ▪ 192 or 4.2%  Austin Public Schools’ capture rate  87.2% in 2008-09  85.8% in 2003-04

17.  Predictor of enrollment change  Kindergarten up in the past four years ▪ 2005-06 with all day kindergarten, kindergarten was 384 students. Since then, ranged from 356 to 376  Grade 12 largest in 2009-10 (361 students) followed by 2008-09 (325 students)  Elementary grades (K through 5) larger than current high school grades ▪ Predicts enrollment increase

18. Grade2000-012001-022002-032003-042004-052005-062006-072007-082008-092009-10 K 272268302260299384356376367371 1 292298285313294321371350372366 2 307295285263289287306351349389 3 313310294287278287293307346357 4 335316308292285274292289296353 5 311350324311302290280286297316 6 308303353344341323301293300310 7 347309314356347335320302289301 8 337341317309350348343322303286 9 375366 338328389396366311310 10 366340352368322 347366348319 11 348312304321342327311333354334 12 301291277259292326296282325361 Total 4,2124,0994,0814,0214,0694,2134,2124,2234,2574,373

19.  Trends where confidence is high  Aging  Decrease in the school age population per household  Shift in size of key adult age groups, which will affect demand for housing  Low fertility  Enrollment cycles

20.  Unknowns  Duration of the collapse of the housing market and tight credit ▪ Affects mobility ▪ Housing supply  Economic recovery ▪ Affects immigration

21.  Two methods  Cohort survival ▪ Kindergarten (births as proxy) ▪ Migration (survival rates)  Housing unit ▪ Housing units ▪ School age child per dwelling unit ratio ▪ Public school capture rate

22. YearMinnesotaMower CountyAustin City 199464,277453268 199563,259430270 199663,681404245 199764,491430250 199865,207467296 199965,953475307 200067,451523356 200166,617535363 200268,037539383 200370,053536365 200470,617509346 200570,950538385 200673,515575435 200773,675549358 200872,382633460

23.  What is it? Adjusting births to required age to enroll in kindergarten  Births reported by calendar year  Must be 5 as of September 1 enroll in kindergarten ▪ About one-third born six years earlier and two-thirds born five years earlier

24. Birth YearsPoolPercentageKindergarten 1994; 199543762.2%2000-01 1995; 199641165.2%2001-02 1996; 199742071.9%2002-03 1997; 199845557.1%2003-04 1998; 199947263.3%2004-05 1999; 200050775.7%*2005-06 2000; 200153167.0%2006-07 2001; 200253869.9%2007-08 2002; 200353768.3%2008-09 2003; 200451871.6%2009-10 2004; 20055282010-11 2005; 20065632011-12 2006; 20075582012-13 2007, 20086052013-14

25. Projected Births YearLowHigh 2008633 2009544556 2010542561 2011540564 2012539568 2013537572 2014534576

27. LowMiddleHigh 2010-11365 370 2011-12390 394 2012-13386 391 2013-14419 424 2014-15397403407 2015-16376387391 2016-17374390394 2017-18373392397 2018-19372394399 2019-20370398403

28. NET MIGRATION FALL TO FALL 00 to 0101 to 0202 to 0303 to 0404 to 0505 to 0606 to 0707 to 0808 to 09 K-5509-83314-11-35-1351 6-8-1322182716 11 9-12-117-60-53-5222-36-50-498 Total-80-29-43852-31-69-5170

29.  Change in net flow  Kindergarten to Grade 1 until all day kindergarten; now a small net flow out  Net inflow from  Grade 5 to Grade 6  Grade 8 to Grade 9  Net outflow from  Grade 10 to Grade 11  Grade 11 to Grade 12

30.  Two assumptions  Low is the average of survival rates of the past four years  High is the average of survival rates of the past two years

31. Grade Survival Rates LowHigh K to 10.9840.993 1 to 20.9861.022 2 to 31.0081.005 3 to 40.9970.992 4 to 51.0241.048 5 to 61.0441.047 6 to 70.9960.995 7 to 81.0060.997 8 to 91.0190.995 9 to 100.9480.989 10 to 110.9630.964 11 to 120.9520.998

32. Year Low K Low Mig Middle K Low Mig Middle K High Mig High K High Mig 2009-104,373 2010-114,352 4,3944,399 2011-124,405 4,4704,479 2012-134,481 4,5714,585 2013-144,614 4,7184,737 2014-154,7394,7454,8704,894 2015-164,8234,8404,9935,020 2016-174,8984,9315,1105,142 2017-184,9515,0025,2105,247 2018-194,9615,0345,2585,301 2019-204,9675,0675,3115,360

33. K-56-89-12Total 2009-102,1528971,3244,373 2014-15 Low K/Low M2,2921,1851,2624,739 Middle K/Low M2,2981,1851,2624,745 Middle K/High M2,3711,2181,2814,870 High K/High M2,3941,2181,2814,894 2019-20 Low K/Low M2,2271,2451,4954,967 Middle K/Low M2,3271,2451,4955,067 Middle K/High M2,4041,3211,5875,311 High K/High M2,4311,3371,5925,360

34.  Change in age of adults  2010-2020 ▪ Population in household formation years (20-34 yrs) increases less than from 2000-2010 ▪ Decrease in population in the “move up” housing years (35-54 yrs) ▪ Usually have children in the household ▪ Prefer single-family detached units ▪ Huge increase in population 65+ years

35. MINNESOTA Age2000201020202000-20102010-2020 20-34 yrs995,6211,148,0801,155,370152,4597,290 35-54 yrs1,489,8781,567,5801,520,86077,702-46,720 55-64 yrs404,869631,090788,290226,221157,200 65+ yrs594,266677,270947,52083,004270,250 Sum3,484,6344,024,0204,412,040539,386388,020

36.  Dwelling unit type affects the school age child per household ratio  Only single-family detached units have a high yield of school age children  New dwelling units yield more students than older units  As existing units turnover (sold), the school age child per household goes down, except for the very newest units  Value of units affects school age child ratio

37.  540 additional households by 2019-20  Increase school age child per household  0.41 in 2008  0.44 in 2014-15  0.45 in 2019-20  Increase public school capture rate  87.2% in 2008-09  88% in 2014-15 and 2019-20

38. HOUSING UNIT METHOD ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS Assumptions Residents AUSTIN District Nonresidents Total EnrollmentHouseholds TotalAPS 2014-15 (+240 units) @0.44; 88% 5,2104,5851304,71511,840 2019-20 (+540 units) @0.45; 88% 5,4634,8071304,93712,140

39. 2014-15 Residents Attending APSNonresidents Total EnrollmentHouseholds Housing Unit (+240 units) @0.44; 88% 4,5851304,71511,840 Cohort Low K/Low Mig4,6091304,73911,905 Middle K/Low Mig4,6151304,74511,918 Middle K/High Mig4,7401304,87012,241 High K/High Mig4,7641304,89412,305

40. 2019-20 Residents Attending APSNonresidents Total EnrollmentHouseholds Housing Unit (+ 540 units) @0.45; 88% 4,8071304,93712,140 Cohort Low K/Low Mig4,8371304,96712,216 Middle K/Low Mig4,9371305,06712,467 Middle K/High Mig5,1811305,31113,084 High K/High Mig5,2301305,36013,207