1. Scott's 2013-2014 Winter Forecast ! It’s like looking into a crystal ball… Seriously though; getting the forecast to verify seven days out is hard enough….why would we want to forecast for a whole season?!?!

2. El Nino or La Nina? -2011 Warmer than normal water Cooler than normal water Looks like a La Nina to me!

3. Typical La Nina Pattern

4. El Nino or La Nina? -2012 Warmer than normal water Cooler than normal water Looks more like an El Nino pattern

5. Typical El Nino Pattern

6. El Nino or La Nina? -2013 Trending warmer than normal Trending cooler than normal

7. El Nino or La Nina? -2013 So what are we in (or going into)? It looks like...... Neutral (“La Nada”)  Weak La Nina

8. What is the PDO? Pacific Decadal Oscillation An index derived from Northern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. Negative PDO brings a trough into western North America and a ridge across eastern North America Helps determine El Nino/La Nina(-PDO: El Nino weaker, La Nina stronger; +PDO: El Nino stronger and longer lasting, La Nina weaker)

9. Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2011 A -PDO helps strengthen La Nina

10. Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2012

11. Pacific Decadal Oscillation-2013 (TRENDING)

12. Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2011)

13. Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2012)

14. Always look at snow and ice cover ! (2013) Almost a carbon copy of 2012!

15. North Atlantic Oscillation (“The Wildcard”)

17. Arctic Oscillation (AO)

19. Courtesy: Hazardous Weather Prediction Center (http://www.hwpcwx.org/)

20. Analog Years 1989-1990 (Neutral) 1996-1997 (Weak La Nina) 2001-2002 (Neutral) 2008-2009 (Weak La Nina) 2012-2013 (Neutral  Weak La Nina)

21. About the analog years 1989-1990: Little snow; Top 10 least snowiest Winters at JFK (Kocin and Uccellini’s NE Snowstorms, Vol II) 1996-1997: Little snows with biggest snowfall (N&W) in Late March 2001-2002: Mild Winter 2008-2009: Early season snow, big snowstorm in March 2012-2013: Early season snow along NJ coast in November; stayed cold, but dry until February 8 th with huge snows across NYC, LI, New England

22. Central Park Snowfall (analog years vs. average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL 1989-90 0 0 0 0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 0 0 13.4 1996-97 0 0 0 0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 0 0 10.0 2001-02 0 0 0 0 0 T 3.5 T T T 0 0 3.5 2008-09 0 0 0 0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 0 0 27.6 2012-13 0 0 0 0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0 0 0 26.1 AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 T 0.3 4.8 8.0 9.4 3.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 26.7 (1981-2011)

23. Philly Snowfall(analog years vs average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 7.1 8.7 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 22.7 (1981-2011)

24. Atlantic City Snowfall(analog years vs average) SEASON JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN TOTAL AVERAGE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.6 4.7 6.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.8 (1981-2011)

25. Other selected cities avg. snowfall(1981-2011) Newark Liberty Int’l Airport(KEWR) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 5.4 8.9 9.5 4.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 29.5” Islip NY(KISP) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 5.1 8.0 6.9 4.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 25.3” Wilmington DE(KILG-New Castle County Airport) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.4 7.0 8.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 21.2” Allentown PA(KABE-Lehigh Valley Int’l Airport) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Season Avg. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.6 10.5 11.3 4.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 33.9”

26. Temperature anomalies- December

27. Temperature anomalies- January

28. Temperature anomalies- February

29. Precipitation anomalies- December

30. Precipitation anomalies- January

31. Precipitation anomalies- February

32. What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Central Park(1981-2010 avg): Dec Avg: 37.5 F (My outlook: +0.5) Jan Avg: 32.6 F (My outlook: +2.0) Feb Avg: 35.3 F (My outlook: +3.0)

33. What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Central Park(1981- 2010 avg): Dec: 4.00” (Outlook: +0.50”) Jan: 3.65” (Outlook: 0.00”) Feb: 3.09” (Outlook: -1.50”)

34. What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Philly Int’l(1981-2010 avg): Dec Avg: 37.4 F (My outlook: 0.0) Jan Avg: 32.9 F (My outlook: +2.0) Feb Avg: 35.6 F (My outlook: +3.5)

35. What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Philly Int’l(1981- 2010 avg): Dec: 3.55” (Outlook +0.50”) Jan: 3.03” (Outlook: 0.00”) Feb: 2.64” (Outlook: -1.50”)

36. What do the maps mean then? Temperatures for Atlantic City(1981-2010 avg): Dec Avg: 37.0 F (My outlook: +1.0) Jan Avg: 32.8 F (My outlook: +2.0) Feb Avg: 35.1 F (My outlook: +3.0)

37. What do the maps mean then? Liquid Precipitation for Atlantic City(1981- 2010 avg): Dec: 3.68” (Outlook: +1.00”) Jan: 3.28” (Outlook: 0.00”) Feb: 2.87” (Outlook -1.00”)

38. So what are my thoughts about snowfall this Winter? Average snowfall north of I-78, I-80, and I-84(elevation, colder air in place) Slightly below average to average snowfall along I-95 corridor Below average snowfall along the coast (mixing issues, warm ocean temps)

39. So what are my thoughts about snowfall this Winter? Best snowfall chances in December (analog years show overall average monthly temps and above average precipitation) A -NAO can throw a curve ball and with cold air in place there could be one or two big snow storms (coastal storm with 6-12”+); -AO and +PNA can also funnel in colder air and lock it in for a long period These are just MY thoughts and should NOT be taken to the bank!

40. My snowfall prediction for the Winter

41. Want to find out more this Winter? www.facebook.com/scottderek www.scottderekwx.com www.twitter.com/scott_derek