1. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 1 -29 Intelligent Scenario Development for CAX Institute of Mathematics & Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences e-mail: zlatogor@math.bas.bg e-mail: zlatogor@math.bas.bg Zlatogor Minchev Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Center of Excellence in Operational Analyses This publication is supported by NATO’s Scientific Division in the framework of Science for Peace Program - Project SfP-981149 (2005-2007)

2. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 2 -29 Theoretical Background 1. Е-R (Entity – Relationship) model - Chen, 1976 EmployeesProjects Employee on Project Entities Set Relations Set Entities Set m n

3. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 3 -29 2. Systems Theory – Bertalanffy, 1950

4. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 4 -29 SCIP – Scenario Computer Interface Program

5. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 5 -29 Functional abilities Main menu Toolbar Object’s coordinates

6. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 6 -29 Main menu

7. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 7 -29 ‘File’

8. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 8 -29 ‘Edit’

9. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 9 -29 ‘Window’

10. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 10 -29 Rubberband tool ObjectsRelations Sensitivity Diagram Virtual Grid Selector tool Toolbar

11. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 11 -29 Sensitivity Diagram

12. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 12 -29 Objects’ Characteristics Form

13. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 13 -29 Relations’ Characteristics Form

14. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 14 -29 File Format

15. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 15 -29 Excel Interoperability

16. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 16 -29 Scenario Example for Crises Management

17. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 17 -29 Sensitivity Diagram

18. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 18 -29 Ideas to add Intelligence in SCIP Better Relations’ EvaluationBetter Relations’ Evaluation BA w (w  N) -Relation Weight

19. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 19 -29 ‘w’ Evaluation Brainstorming Multi-criteria Approach Fuzzy Sets Implementation

20. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 20 -29 Multi-criteria Evaluation Multi-valued logic – Łukasiewicz, 1920 Fuzzy Sets – Zadeh, 1965 Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets – Atanassov, 1983

21. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 21 -29 Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

22. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 22 -29 Graphical Representation

23. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 23 -29 Possible Applications of IFS in SCIP w -  A Interchange among  A, A and  A in accordance with your information Utilization of F ,  optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing

24. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 24 -29 w -  A Create two scales for  A and A that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming true -  A A - false

25. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 25 -29 Interchange among  A, A and  A in accordance with your information 1. Create two scales for a and b that are filled up trough experts’ knowledge and/or brainstorming for things that you know, don’t know or are uncertain for you;  A, A or  A in accordance with 1. 2. Substitute a and b with  A, A or  A in accordance with 1. 3. Utilize IFS basic relations (see IFS definition) or IFS optimization (see next slide) true - a b - false

26. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 26 -29 Utilization of F ,  optimizing operator for uncertainty minimizing {  x,  A (x), 1-  A (x)  | x  E}; A (x) = {  x,  A (x), 1-  A (x)  | x  E}; {  x, A (x), 1- A (x)  | x  E};  A (x) = {  x, A (x), 1- A (x)  | x  E}; F ,  (A) = {  x,  A (x) + ..  A (x), A (x) + ..  A (x)  | x  E},  ,   [0, 1],  +   1, A – fixed set, E universe of disclosure, x element from E (see IFS definition). (0,1) (1,0) (0,0) f  A (x) - possibility f A (x) - necessity F,F,

27. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 27 -29 I-SCIP Contribution SfP 981149 Scientific Research TACOM SEE 2006 / Protection 2006 Scenario Development NATO MSG – 049 Scenario Development

28. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 28 -29 Conclusions Utilization of E-R model, systems theory and holistic thinking; Interoperability between different software products; Interactive work; General view and evaluation of the scenario theatre.

29. Velingrad, Bulgaria October 21-25, 2006 NATO ARW: 'Scientific Support for the Decision Making in the Security Sector' 29 -29 QUESTIONS ?