1. SAME/ACEC Conference June 14, 2012 The U.S. and Washington Area Economic Performance Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University

2. Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Five Recessions Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

3. U.S. Leading Index 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

4. U.S. Coincident Index 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

5. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Indices May-12

6. Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – US Month over the Year, Not Seasonally Adjusted (1000s) May = + 1.8 M Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

7. 000s US Job Change Month-to-Month, Seasonally Adjusted May = 69 Source: BLS

8. U.S. Job Change by Sector May 2011 – May 2012 (000s)Total = 1,782 Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2011

9. U.S. Job Change by Sector Apr 2012 – May 2012 (000s)Total = 69 Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Ranked by Size in 2011

10. Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average 374.5 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (000s)

11. U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: BLS (Seasonally Adjusted), Global Insight (forecasts) May = 8.2 % GI FCST 12 – 8.1 13 – 7.8 14 – 7.2 15 – 6.5 16 – 6.1 17 – 5.9

12. Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: Global Insight Forecast > > > > > > >

13. 100 Consumer Confidence Source: Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Expectations Current Situation

14. Consumer Prices 2001 - 2017 Forecast > > > > > % Source: BLS, Global Insight

15. Interest Rates 2001 - 2017 Forecast > > > > Source: Global Insight

16. Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (000s) Source: NAHB (New) and NAR (Existing)

17. Growth in Total Consumption Outlays % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Forecast > > > > >

18. % U.S. Economic Performance Source: BEA, Global Insight

19. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2014 % Forecast > > > > > > Source: BEA, Global Insight

20. The Washington Economy

21. 2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Serving Activities 34.8% Non-Local Business 12.0 % Total Federal 39.8% Procurement 19.1% Assn 1.8% Hosp. 2.1% Int’l 3.5% Other 1.5% Other Federal 10.7 % Health/Ed. 4.5% Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

22. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

23. Washington MSA Coincident Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

24. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Apr 2011 – Apr 2012 (000s) Washington + 34,500 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

25. Annual Job Change Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

26. Job Change by Sector Apr 2011 – Apr 2012 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 34,500 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

27. Professional & Business Services Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 2011 = 688,700

28. Federal Government Washington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: BLS March 2012 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 2011 = 383,600

29. Annual Job Change District of Columbia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

30. Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

31. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

32. 8.3 – DC 8.1 – U.S. 5.6 – SMD 5.1 – MSA 4.0 - NVA Unemployment Rate Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

33. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate April 2012 % US 8.1 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 5.1

34. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

35. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s ) 20082009201020112012201320142015 D.C.10.1-2.29.511.211.812.51413 Sub. MD -3.3-25.1-5.94.06.28.59.09.5 No. VA 6.1-23.08.717.418.021.022.020.5 REGION12.9-50.311.332.636.042.045.043.0 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2015 based on 2012 Benchmark data from BLS, Revised 5/1/2012 NOTE: 2011 Total is the sum of subregions and does not agree with the Mar 13, 2012 published MSA total.

36. % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.

37. 2015 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Serving Activities 34.2% Non-Local Business 14.0 % Total Federal 36.3% Procurement 17.4% Assn 2.0 % Hosp. 2.5% Int’l 3.5% Other 1.5% Other Federal 9.5 % Health/Ed. 6.0 % Fed Wages & Salaries 9.4 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

38. George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis cra.gmu.edu