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CORE Track Session Credit Market Update: Is the Thaw Real? Wednesday, March 23, 7:45 – 8:30 a.m. Sponsored by William Blair & Company and BDO
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Credit Market Update: Is the Thaw Real? Moderator: Mark Cordes, Audax Group Panel: Juan E. Alva, Fifth Street Finance Tom Klimmeck, Madison Capital Partners Charles F. Riceman, Golub Capital Brian Harrer, U.S. Bank Sponsored by:
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Private Equity Outlook 3 Deals and Capital Invested, 2005 - 2010 US Private Equity200520062007200820092010 Capital Invested ($B) $ 173 $ 307 $ 596 $ 217 $ 61 $ 145 # of Deals206125423011223813751624 Source: PitchBook
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Private Equity Outlook 4 Quarterly Deals and Capital Invested, 2007 – 2011 Q1 Source: PitchBook
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Private Equity Outlook 5 PE Backed Companies by Vintage, 2000 - 2010 Year of Investment 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 PE-Owned Companies108981382564746789741234898497639 Source: PitchBook
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Private Equity Outlook 6 PE Exits, 2000 - 2010 # of US PE Exits 20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010 Corporate Acquisition124104115125214234273342265181303 IPO4923252767727478153059 Secondary Transaction2215316110012816519111045141 Total Count of closedate195142171213381434512611390256503 Source: PitchBook
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Private Equity Outlook 7 PE Backed Companies, 2004 - 2010 Source: PitchBook
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Loan Market Update 8 Middle Market Loan Volume, 2004 - 2010 Source: Standard & Poor’s 4Q10 Review Increased volume driven by: (i) economic recovery; (ii) tax driven M&A activity; and (iii) increased liquidity Refinancings (32% share) and dividend recaps (20%) were largest use of proceeds LBO’s in ‘10 represented 16% of volume vs. 49% in ‘07 Healthcare is largest industry segment at 12% share, up from 10% in ‘07 Computer/electronics, chemicals and food/beverage were biggest share gainers in ‘10 vs. ‘07 Services/leasing, utilities, printing/publishing, and oil/gas were biggest share losers in ‘10 vs. ‘07 Market Loan Volumes – New Issues Middle Market Sponsored Volume
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Loan Market Update 9 Distribution of Loan Maturities, 2010 - 2017 Market Loan Volumes – New Issues Middle Market Sponsored Volume 20102011201220132014201520162017Total Additions New Deals1.41.10.45.720.329.080.422.7161.0 Facility Increases0.0 0.40.70.30.60.02.0 Amend/Extend0.00.11.31.63.17.718.411.743.8 Subtractions Paydowns1.95.617.919.017.03.71.90.067.1 Partial Paydowns0.51.16.85.910.42.91.40.429.3 HY Take-outs0.10.96.616.515.32.20.20.842.7 Defaults0.2 0.63.83.30.70.0 8.9 Amend/Extend1.60.75.016.520.00.0 43.8 As of 12/31/093.310.556.3124.8223.437.513.00.0468.8 As of 12/17/100.43.221.170.9181.464.8108.833.3483.9 Significant progress was made in extending near- term loan maturities in 2010. In addition to nearly $50 billion of Amend-to-Extend (“A-to-E”) deals, issuers printed more than $114 billion of bond-for-loan takeouts, $43 billion of which repaid loans. Arrangers expect A-to-E activity to remain strong in 2011 as issuers look to address 2013 / 2014 loan maturities through IPO’s, M&A activity, cash flow or full refinancings. Loan Maturity Additions and Subtractions, 2010 - 2017
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Loan Market Update 10 Middle Market Pricing, 2004 - 2010 Source: Standard & Poor's 4Q10 Review and Madison Capital *MM Sponsor pricing is primary issuance, tranche weighted, and includes upfront fees amortized over three years. Source: Standard & Poor's 4Q10 Review, Fannie Mae, Bloomberg and Madison Capital Primary Spreads for B+/B Credits Vs. New Issue MM Sponsor Deals All-In Cash Coupon (B+/B credits)
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Loan Market Update 11 Debt Multiples / Equity Contributions Source: Standard & Poor’s 4Q10 Review Average Leverage Multiples of LBO Loans Deals < $50MM in EBITDA LBO Purchase Multiples & Equity Contributions Deal < $50MM in EBITDA
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Loan Market Update 12 Institutional Loan Investors Source: Standard & Poor’s 4Q10 Review Investor Market Share for Highly Leveraged Issuers < $50 million in EBITDA Health of the lending market improved significantly in 2010 Default rates at 60% Increasing liquidity into the mid-market is being driven by: Accelerating repayment rates Improved CLO balance sheets Improved commercial bank balance sheets Revitalization of structured products groups within banks Growing hunger for yield Optimism continues to build for both large market and mid-market CLO issuance; ~50% of CLO’s reach the end of their investment period by 2012 “Loan ratings” management remains key issue for mid-market CLO managers Loan mutual funds are biggest driver of new money into large, liquid market
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Coming Up Next... ACG Core Track (Elizabeth G) 8:45 - 9:30 a.m. Capital Markets Update: From Leverage to IPO 10:00 – 11:00 a.m. The Sell Side Process: Tactics for a Changing Game 11:15 a.m. – Noon Lower Middle Market Update 2:00 – 3:00 p.m. Strategies for Add-On Acquisitions Noon – 1:45 p.m. Lunch & Keynote with General Stanley McChrystal (Ret) Sponsored by Fifth Street Capital (Elizabeth Ballroom)
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