1. Teaching the Science of Climate Change Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee STAVCON November 2007 Please read the Notes pages for more info This ppt available on www.vicphysics.org - Teachers PART 2

2. Human induced changes  How can we understand it? –Computer models are the only way of taking all this into account. –Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat, air, water, between small blocks of the atmosphere. –Here’s the basic physics:

4. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –These are just F = ma applied to moving fluids –This is conservation of mass –This governs the way heat flows between systems

5. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The climate system is modelled as cells of air (or water) and the equations are applied to see how much air/heat flows between each pair of cells –This is repeated all around the Earth –The models have improved by making the cells smaller –They are now about 110 km square by 1 km high

6. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The initial conditions have to be fed into the model and then it generates weather and climate patterns over hours, days, years or centuries! –Here is the result of one:

8. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –Models are tested to see if they generate past known climate patterns. –They are becoming more and more accurate. over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or centuries! –Anthropogenic factors can be added/removed

10.  The science of climate change

11. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet.

12. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet.

13. Human induced changes  Climate models and their predictions. –The following diagrams are taken from the AR4 Synthesis Report

21. Overview  Climate science –Earth’s energy balance –Interactions between emr and the atmosphere –The effect of changes in the system  Human induced changes –The release of millions of years of stored energy –Is the climate changing? –How can we understand it? –Climate models and their predictions.  What can we do? –Fossil fuels –Reduce energy use –Lower CO2 options –Sustainable options  The human response –Sceptics, deniers, avoiders –Change the light bulbs –The need for real change  Education –That’s where we come in

22. What can we do?  Fossil fuels –We have to reduce them but we are extremely dependant on them

23. What can we do?  Fossil fuels –Cutting car use has to be a priority ABS

24. What can we do?  Fossil fuels –One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!

25. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Better forms of transport

26. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Better forms of transport – maybe these?

27. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –Better forms of transport – certainly these

28. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –These are a problem!

29. What can we do?  Reduce energy use –This could be fun. Maybe we need to be a bit more relaxed about getting places!

30. What can we do?  Lower CO 2 options –Sequestration of CO 2 from power stations - ? –More efficient coal stations –Combined cycle gas generators

31. What can we do?  Lower CO 2 options –Nuclear ?

32. What can we do?  Sustainable options 60 kilowatt (10 year ago) 1300 kilowatt now

33. What can we do?  Sustainable options We make per day about: 5 – 10 kWh Feed in to grid about 4 – 6 kWh Draw from grid about 2 – 3 kWh

34. What can we do?  Sustainable options Gas used for hot water since installation a month ago: NONE at all

35. What can we do?  Sustainable options

36. What can we do?  Sustainable options –Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’ –Potentially very large resources – (get pic!)

37. What can we do?  Sustainable options –The ‘base load problem’? –We are no where near having that problem yet! Spot the renewables!

38. What can we do?  Sustainable options – base load? –Wide distribution of sources evens out the load –Linking them is not as difficult as we are told –Solar feeds power in at peak use time –Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas) –Other storage options possible in future –HVDC

39. What can we do?  Sustainable options – HVDC –High Voltage DC transmission –Basslink provides peak and stores excess

40. What can we do?  Sustainable options – HVDC –Making big difference to long distance transmission –Carries twice the power –Can go 1000’s of km (AC < 1000 km)

41. What can we do?  Sustainable options – HVDC –High power high voltage semiconductors have made the difference

42. What can we do?  Sustainable options –Area needed to collect ALL of Australia’s energy use.

43. What can we do?  Sustainable options Where are the solar collectors?

44. What can we do?  Sustainable options This is in sunny Germany!

45. What can we do?  Sustainable options We have to get away from this

46. What can we do?  Sustainable options To this

47. Overview  Climate science –Earth’s energy balance –Interactions between emr and the atmosphere –The effect of changes in the system  Human induced changes –The release of millions of years of stored energy –Is the climate changing? –How can we understand it? –Climate models and their predictions.  What can we do? –Fossil fuels –Reduce energy use –Lower CO2 options –Sustainable options  The human response –Sceptics, deniers, avoiders –Change the light bulbs –The need for real change  Education –That’s where we come in

48. The human response  S ceptics, deniers, avoiders Talks of “Alarmist of the Year Tim Flannery” flying around the world, then has a go at the UN Climate Change conference in Bali next month where 12000 people will fly in: “Hypocrisy is too small a word for so monstrous a circus. If it wasn't for the fact the planet actually hasn't warmed for nine years now, I'd cry.”

49. The human response  S ceptics, deniers, avoiders

50. The human response  S ceptics, deniers, avoiders –“We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…

51. The human response  Change the light bulbs –Yes, and turn down the thermostat, –but that is a very tiny start

52. The human response  The need for real change –It will cost –But many jobs could be created –It will cost much more if we don’t start now

55. But remember them?

56. Education  That’s where we come in –The science leads to understanding –The need for optimism

57.  This ppt can be downloaded from www.vicphysics.orgwww.vicphysics.org – Teachers www.vicphysics.org -Feedback: -keith.b@physics.org keith.b@physics.org -Resources: $1 realclimate.org

58. Overview  Climate science –Earth’s energy balance –Interactions between emr and the atmosphere –The effect of changes in the system  Human induced changes –The release of millions of years of stored energy –Is the climate changing? –How can we understand it? –Climate models and their predictions.  What can we do? –Fossil fuels –Reduce energy use –Lower CO2 options –Sustainable options  The human response –Sceptics, deniers, avoiders –Change the light bulbs –The need for real change  Education –That’s where we come in