1. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Hydraulics Group Reggina Cabrera Office of Hydrologic Development Hydrologic Science and Modeling Branch Hydraulics Group Leader Cecile Aschwanden Albert Momo Sanja Perica July 2006

2. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Outline Past, present, and future of Hydraulics Incorporation of Coastal Models Inundation Maps (?) Evaluation of Hydraulic Models Dambreak

3. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Past Status of Hydraulics Present Future OHD Field Offices ?

4. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Status of Hydraulics Present Field Offices OHD Where are we? ???

5. National Weather Service Setting the start… Field Office Feedback OHD status Plan People Software Training

6. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Software FLDWAV *AT series DamAT FldAT SHRT

7. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Recommendations of Models suitable for NWSRFS Selection of Hydraulic Model(s) Technical RECOMMENDATIONS FLDWAVDELFTHEC-RASMIKE-11, 21 Operation al Tests Technical Evaluation Several data sets Feedback from RFCs MAPS

8. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Hydrologic Model Hydraulic Model Tidal Model Coastal Model Precipitation Model Mappingand Server (s) Models WQ OHD Joint Projects

9. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Difficulties Hydrologic setting and calibration hydraulic setting and calibration cross-section information water levels data (gages, tide, etc.) flow data (all conditions) man-made structures

10. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Link to Coastal Models NOS SLOSH ADCIRC NCEP OTHERS Coastal Models Hydraulic Models

11. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HIGH Visibility Will we run them in the future? 1-D 2-D or 3-D needed? What is the interaction between models? Most of the time Flow Forecasts What means to Hydraulics Group? Select a hydraulic option to satisfy this future possibility ? Several Models in use, we don’t control them. Coastal/Estuarine Models Details

12. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions WS Profiles Forecast Hydraulic Model MAPS GIS FLDVIEW WEB Inundation Maps Hydrologic Model

13. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions 1 Number of map scenarios 148.4-77.59940.577447.99 147.62500445.91 146.8500443.83 146.8400443.83 146.500443.83 146.246700442.9417 145.993300442.0533 145.7400441.165 145.486700440.2766 145.233300439.3883 144.98-77.555840.5798438.5 044.453800437.2308 043.927700435.9615 043.401500434.6923 042.875400433.4231 042.349200432.1538 MapRiver MileLatitudeLongitudeThalweg 1984 Name of flood forecast map 48.4475.52231692.8296-999 47.625473.34821574.3484-999 46.85470.4421392.6216-999 46.84470.39571388.8903-999 46.5469.060510884.0742-999 46.2467468.19569105.6992-999 45.9933467.42527542.4292-999 45.74466.76346171.0713-999 45.4867466.1994956.2461-999 45.2333465.72293867.4519-999 44.98465.3232877.6511-999 44.4538464.5272938.4684-999 43.9277463.7095916.4625-999 43.4015462.8641893.1454-999 42.8754461.9841868.4618-999 42.3492461.0663842.4289-999 River MileWSELTop widthWSEL (town) FLDVIEW Input Files. xy file.fcs file

14. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Map library and inundation maps

15. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Internet Mapping Server FLDIMS ArcIMS

16. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Suggested for verification of inundation High water marks…. Surveys Photographs Satellite Images

17. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Questions to answer Should we map? GIS system? Static vs Dynamic Maps

18. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Verify flood maps using photography St. Johns River, Florida.

19. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions MODIS sequence of 2006 Winter Flooding on the Red River of the North Utility of Inundation Sensing for Discharge Estimation 3/28/2006 C/M ratio: 1.015 Estimated Discharge: 5,510 ft 3 /sec Measured Discharge: 6,610 ft 3 /sec 4/3/2006 C/M ratio: 1.114 Estimated Discharge: 25,285 ft 3 /sec Measured Discharge: 28,700 ft 3 /sec 4/4/2006 C/M ratio: 1.146 Estimated Discharge: 29,443 ft 3 /sec Measured Discharge: 33,200 ft 3 /sec 4/7/2006 C/M ratio: 1.341 Estimated Discharge: 69,989 ft 3 /sec Measured Discharge: 59,500 ft 3 /sec 4/13/2006 C/M ratio: 1.329 Estimated Discharge: 61,436 ft 3 /sec Measured Discharge: 68,300 ft 3 /sec 4/26/2006 C/M ratio: 1.185 Estimated Discharge: 32,478 ft 3 /sec Measured Discharge: 28,400 ft 3 /sec

20. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Team Evaluation of Hydraulic Models Mission: Evaluate selected hydraulic models to determine their capabilities and limitations in the technical area. The models will be tested for different data sets, providing a range of hydraulic conditions and different degrees of complexity. They will be reviewed against criteria to determine technical suitability.

21. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions of Hydraulic Models Evaluation of Hydraulic Models Provide a focused direction for the hydraulic software NWS could use in the future June 1 st, 2006 to June 1st, 2007

22. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Ed Capone Lori Schultz Brian Astifan Mike Shultz John Halquist Thea Minsk Don Laurine Janet McCormick OHD Sanja Perica Reggina Cabrera

23. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions OHD FLDWAV USACE HEC HEC-RAS DELFT Sobek DHI MIKE-11, 21 Technical Evaluation Criteria Several data sets Software to be tested

24. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions DELFT

25. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HEC-RAS GUI Fortran Programs Dambreak

26. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HEC-RAS

27. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Suite of Models from HEC HMS RES-SIMRAS Inundation Maps FIA DAMBREAK

28. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Suite of Models from NWS NWSRFS HYDRO RES-SNGL RES-J FLDWAV Inundation Maps Forecast Warnings DAMBREAK

29. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions MIKE-11 and MIKE-21 NCRFC and Red River

30. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Status of work: Conference calls LOTS of support MANY ideas Lead and organize their ideas to keep going….

31. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions DamAT : Needwood Dam

32. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Needwood Dam, June 29,2006 I heard the news (6 AM, MDT) about a dam in MD while I was in Boulder making a presentation at COMET I called OHD, HYD group, asked for a DamAT run at 8:30 AM and requested the results by phone It was 10:30 AM and I had no results. I called from the airport and found out: The name of the dam was not the correct one The location needed to be checked The DRGs were not available (1 : 24000)

33. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Needwood Dam, June 29,2006 At 11:30 am before boarding I was told results were about to be ready ( the same I requested at 8:30 am) At 5:00 pm I arrived in Washington and went to visit the dam to take pictures and decided on using this case to test our ‘MOST” advertised DamAT.

34. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

35. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

36. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Actions Taken Requested run at OHD with new data Visited the site daily until the warning expired Coordinated with WFO at Sterling Coordinated with MARFC

37. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

38. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

39. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Lake Needwood: Lessons Learned TIME to compute results was UNACCEPTABLE RESULTS were Questionable DOCUMENTATION was NOT READILY FOUND Field offices have not been trained and do not trust dam data What is the bottom line? FACT: We are not close to be ready for DAMBREAK. SOLUTION: We need to set a strategy to approach DAMBREAK

40. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Technical Evaluation Criteria 1. Functionality and Capabilities of the model 2. Easy of Use 2.1 Setting 2.2 Calibration 2.3 Operations 3. Implementation and Integration of the model 4. Training, documentation and Support

41. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Future Field Offices OHD Hydraulic Model(s) Main Plan Dambreak

42. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Future and Dambreak NEED RFCs/WFO COOPERATION Started reviewing assumptions of current tool(s) before continue using them (i.e. DamAT)

43. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions First meeting on September 18-22 Training DELFT HEC-RAS MIKE-11 and MIKE-21 Setting of models using selected data sets Two more meetings in FY-2007 CONTINUE the EVALUATION OF Hydraulic Models

44. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Linked to Hydraulic Models Probabilities and Inundation Maps

45. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Mapping without a hydraulic model? SHRT (Simple Hydraulic Routing Technique)

46. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions QUESTIONS? THANK YOU!

47. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions You want to compare HEC-RAS And FLDWAV

48. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

49. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

50. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

51. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Input FLDATHEC-RAS

52. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Output Graphical : High water profiles along channel Stage and discharge hydrographs at all or selected locations “Poor man’s” animation 3-D Plots Plots of input hydraulic parameters Tabular : Tables of hydraulic information at each computational time step Database : Data may be written to HEC-DSS or FLDDB database Flood Mapping : HEC-GEO-RAS or FLDVIEW

53. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Output: 3-D HEC-RAS

54. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Output: Cross Sections HEC-RASFLDAT

55. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Output: Channel Profiles HEC-RASFLDAT

56. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Applicability to DAMCAT Why not use HEC-RAS instead of DAMCAT? DAMCAT uses a simplified DAMBRK model (SMPDBK No equivalent exists in the HEC-RAS family, so a full blown UNET model must be built and run. This introduces all of the complexities of an unsteady model, the avoidance of which is why SMPDBK was developed.

57. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions IN SUMMARY - The HEC-RAS steady flow component is simpler to use than FLDWAV and is well suited to hydraulic structure design. - The HEC-RAS steady flow component is not applicable to unsteady flow computations such as NWS river and flood forecasting. - The HEC-RAS unsteady flow component (UNET) has most of the capabilities of FLDWAV and all of the complexities inherent to unsteady flow modeling. - HEC-RAS does not possess a simplified dam failure analysis procedure. - HEC-RAS is not an NWSRFS operation. - HEC-RAS is a windows-only application.

58. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Types of flow in open channels DEPTH and VELOCITY at a given location Steady Flow: No variation with time Unsteady Flow: Varies with time DEPTH and VELOCITY along the channel Uniform Flow: Constant Varied Flow: Varies

59. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Gradually and Rapidly Varied

60. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Classification of Flows Froude Number: Fr = V/√gD Fr < 1 Flow is Sub-critical Fr = 1 Flow is Critical Fr > 1 Flow is Super-critical Disturbance at the downstream end of a Channel …. Popagation of the wave Sub-critical Flow : wave propagates upstream Super-critical Flow : wave can’t propagate upstream.

61. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Manning’s Equation Q= [1.486 /n ][A x R 2/3 x S 1/2 ] Q= K x S 1/2 K is conveyance and affects the answer of the model.

62. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Why HEC-RAS ? Documentation Troubleshooting Training Stable

63. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions LIMITATIONS for HEC-RAS Assumptions Uses 1-D energy Equation Eqs. Solved for gradually varied flow Dominant forces are in the x direction Channel slopes should be less than 1:10 Steady versus unsteady One dimensional flow vs 2 or 3-D

64. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HEC-RAS and NWS Operations Steady vs Unsteady HEC-RAS Operational Data Ingestion Execution Time

65. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Setting of the Model Developing the River System Schematic Cross Section Data Stream Junctions Bridges and Culverts Multiple Bridge and/or Culvert Openings Inline Structures (Weirs and Gated Spillways) Lateral Structures (Weirs, Gated Spillways, Culverts, and Rating Curves) Storage Areas Storage Area Connections Pump Stations Cross Section Interpolation River Ice Viewing and Editing Data Through Tables Importing Geometric Data Geometric Data Tools Attaching and Viewing Pictures Saving the Geometric Data

66. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Show the GUI and Capabilities

67. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Graphics and Tables

68. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

69. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Examples for types of flow Dambreak Flood wave Hydropower releases Chanel with constant discharge Flash flooding

70. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

71. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Gradually and Rapidly Varied

72. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Classification of Flows Froude Number: Fr = V/√gD Fr < 1 Flow is Sub-critical Fr = 1 Flow is Critical Fr > 1 Flow is Super-critical

73. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Manning’s Equation Q= [1.486 /n ][A x R 2/3 x S 1/2 ] Q= K x S 1/2 K is conveyance and affects the answer of the model.

74. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Why HEC-RAS ? Documentation ?  Troubleshooting ?  Training ?  Stable ?  Dimensions ? 

75. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions LIMITATIONS for HEC-RAS Assumptions Uses 1-D energy Equation Eqs. Solved for gradually varied flow Dominant forces are in the x direction Channel slopes should be less than 1:10 Steady versus unsteady One dimensional flow vs 2 or 3-D

76. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HEC-RAS and NWS Operations Steady vs Unsteady HEC-RAS Operational Data Ingestion Execution Time

77. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Setting of the Model Developing the River System Schematic Cross Section Data Stream Junctions Bridges and Culverts Multiple Bridge and/or Culvert Openings Inline Structures (Weirs and Gated Spillways) Lateral Structures (Weirs, Gated Spillways, Culverts, and Rating Curves) Storage Areas Storage Area Connections Pump Stations Cross Section Interpolation River Ice Viewing and Editing Data Through Tables Importing Geometric Data Geometric Data Tools Attaching and Viewing Pictures Saving the Geometric Data

78. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Show the GUI and Capabilities

79. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Graphics and Tables

80. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions

81. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions Examples for types of flow Dambreak Flood wave Hydropower releases Chanel with constant discharge Flash flooding

82. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions HEC-RAS and modeling flow Sub-critical Super-critical Mixed

83. National Weather Service Water Predictions for Life Decisions