1. 1 Flash Floods: Relationship Between Basins and Precipitation Matt Kelsch 10 September 2002 kelsch@comet.ucar.edu I-80 washout near Ogallala, NE 6 July 2002

2. 2 Some Generalizations on Flash Floods Intense rainfall rate High precipitation efficiency, warm rain processes Small basins Pre-saturation Impermeability Steep slopes Fort Collins, CO, 28 July 1997

3. 3 More Specifically… It is the relationship between precipitation and basin response that leads to rapid rises in stormwater Rainfall is intense with respect to the basin’s ability to accommodate it –Impermeable (urban) –Altered (fires, deforestation) The basin is small relative to the wet footprint of the precipitating system Flash flooding in Las Vegas within an hour of a rainburst

4. 4 Defining a flash flood (NWS) NWS: A flood which follows within a few hours (usually less than 6 hours) of heavy or excessive rainfall, dam or levee failure, or the sudden release of water impounded by an ice jam. NWS currently claims a 52-min lead time on flash floods; but how do we know when it starts; what is the standard deviation? NATO Advanced Study Institute (1999): A flood in which the causative rainfall and subsequent runoff are occurring on the same time and space scales.

5. Basin Size versus Intense Precip Area  Minimal flash flood threat Increased flash flood risk for small basins completely covered by intense precip area  Larger intense precip footprint can lead to greater flash flood threat 

6. Dallas (5 May 1995): Intense Precip Impacts Small (12 mi 2 ) Urban Basins

8. Basin Size versus Intense Precip Area and its Movement Greater flash flood risk when the precip area is moving downstream with time. 

9. Rapidan River, Virginia (27 June 1995): Intense Rain Moving Slowly Downstream

10. Virginia Topography Radar-derived accumulation 27 June 1995

11. Basin Size versus Intense Precip Area Movement and Propagation Rapid regeneration or training can result in a greater wet footprint in a short time and enhance flash flood risk over somewhat larger basins

12. Aurora, IL (18 July 1996): Rapid and Vigorous Regeneration and Training

13. Aurora, IL (18 July 1996): Large Wet Footprint, Even Some Larger Basins Impacted

14. 14 Isohyet Analysis as of 1200 UTC 18 July 1996 Illinois State Water Survey >16” Aurora, IL (18 July 1996): Large Wet Footprint, Even Some Larger Basins Impacted

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16. 16 Fire and Flash Flood Burn area considerations in sloped pine forests High-intensity fires increase the sand fraction of the surface soil layer Oils from the trees can infused into the soil beneath the sandy layer Top (sandy) layer erodes during heavy rainfall; large sediment transport

17. Buffalo Creek, Colorado (12 July 1996): 45-50 min of Intense Rain on Fire Scar

18. 1-h Accumulation, 12 July 1996 Purples=50-75mm  Fire Scar Buffalo Creek, CO, flash flood

19. 23Z 5 May 1995 DFW Radar: Reflectivity and Cross Section |||||| Cross section  ||||||  Cross section Dallas 42 kft  Just before severe weather in Fort Worth

20. 20 02Z 5 May 1995 Reflectivity and Cross Section Dallas 42 kft  Deadly rainstorm in Dallas

21. 21 12 August 2000, 14-inch totals 8 inch/hr rates Intense Storm  Moist ambient environment Enhanced low-level flow intersecting a boundary

22. Sparta, NJ (12 August 2000): Low-centroid (Warm-topped) Storm; High Rainfall Rates