1. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM3/4/5 Modeling at KNMI HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048 HYMN Hydrogen, Methane and Nitrous oxide: Trend variability, budgets and interactions with the biosphere GOCE-CT-2006-037048

2. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Atmospheric Composition research Climate Research Department KNMI Atmospheric chemistry modeling TM Satellite Earth observation – OMI (PI-institute), SCIA, GOME Air Quality forecasting (new) Atmospheric chemistry modeling TM Satellite Earth observation – OMI (PI-institute), SCIA, GOME Air Quality forecasting (new)

3. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Contents Model development KNMI: TM3 -> TM4 -> TM5 Forward modelling – Methane budget studies (TM3) – RETRO (TM4) – New TM5 strat-trop model version Inverse modelling – EVERGREEN (TM4) HYMN forward + inverse modeling activities KNMI Model development KNMI: TM3 -> TM4 -> TM5 Forward modelling – Methane budget studies (TM3) – RETRO (TM4) – New TM5 strat-trop model version Inverse modelling – EVERGREEN (TM4) HYMN forward + inverse modeling activities KNMI

4. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM3-TM4-TM5 TM modeling community (KNMI, Univ. Utrecht, Univ. Wageningen, JRC, NOAA CMDL, Univ Crete, …) TM3 (1995,..) [heritage Heimann TM2 (1991)] TM4 (2003,..) new meteo-preprocessing TM5 trop (2003,..) zoom option TM5 trop+strat (2006,..) full-3D chemistry TM information on the web –http://www.knmi.nl/~velthove/tm.html TM modeling community (KNMI, Univ. Utrecht, Univ. Wageningen, JRC, NOAA CMDL, Univ Crete, …) TM3 (1995,..) [heritage Heimann TM2 (1991)] TM4 (2003,..) new meteo-preprocessing TM5 trop (2003,..) zoom option TM5 trop+strat (2006,..) full-3D chemistry TM information on the web –http://www.knmi.nl/~velthove/tm.html

5. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Methane budget studies (TM3)

6. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Methane lifetime 1979-1993 SimulationMeteorol- ogy CH4 emisAll emisStrat. Ozon Trend CH 4 lifetime (%/yr) S1 base run1979-1993 1979-1992-0.24 S2 CH4 emis19931979-199319931992+0.21 S3 all emis19931979-1993 1992+0.12 S4 strat. ozone 1993 1979-1992-0.15 S5 fixed meteorology 19931979-1993 1979-1992-0.02 S6 variable meteorology 1979-19931993 1992-0.20 S7 water vapor 1993 (excl H2O) 1993 1992-0.13 Dentener et al., JGR, 2003

7. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off H2O variability (ERA15) 1979-1993: increase in H2O => increase in OH => reduced growth of CH4 Waterdamp column (kg/m 2 ) 3-year means Scale 0-50 kg/m 2 Anomalies to the 15-year mean (Blue -5% to -15% Orange +15%)

8. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off RETRO model intercomparison and validation (TM4) RETRO model intercomparison and validation (TM4)

9. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off

10. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM overestimates ozone mostly in the lower troposphere

11. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off None of the models capture seasonal cycle at Barrow (Bromine chemistry) Underestimation in TM of cycle at Bermuda is partly due to relatively coarse resolution

12. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM appears an exceptionally good model for CO

13. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off HYMN Full chemistry runs TM5 trop-strat version HYMN Full chemistry runs TM5 trop-strat version

14. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM5 trop-strat version Extended vertical grid up to 0.2 hPa (e.g. 44 levels) Global 3 x 2 lon-lat; zoom option to 1 x 1 49 tracers transported, 25 tracers not transported Second-order moments advection scheme Explicit chemical reaction scheme including 45 photochemical,144 gas phase and 33 heterogeneous reactions. Updated to JPL 2006. Avoids lumping of species Explicit radiative transfer module implemented for photolyisis. Actinic fluxes at selected wavelengths each time step (Landgraf and Crutzen) Full description of PSCs and NAT particle formation / sedimentation Extended vertical grid up to 0.2 hPa (e.g. 44 levels) Global 3 x 2 lon-lat; zoom option to 1 x 1 49 tracers transported, 25 tracers not transported Second-order moments advection scheme Explicit chemical reaction scheme including 45 photochemical,144 gas phase and 33 heterogeneous reactions. Updated to JPL 2006. Avoids lumping of species Explicit radiative transfer module implemented for photolyisis. Actinic fluxes at selected wavelengths each time step (Landgraf and Crutzen) Full description of PSCs and NAT particle formation / sedimentation

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19. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Evergreen (TM4)

20. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Model: TM4 at 9x6 degrees x 25 levels Dataset: –CH 4 /CO 2 from Univ. Heidelberg –Year: 2004 –So far: no model CO 2 correction, and averaging kernels neglected Error assumptions –Prior emissions: 50% uniformly; spatial correlations L=1500 km –Prior initial concentrations: ~1-2%; same spatial correlations –Observations: uncorrelated, typical precision single obs. 1-2% Inversion SCIAMACHY data

21. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Analysis increments

22. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Regional time series

23. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off Comparison with flasks Free runAssimilation

24. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off HYMN modeling at KNMI * Couplings Biosphere =>TM5 * 4D-var assimilation CH4 HYMN modeling at KNMI * Couplings Biosphere =>TM5 * 4D-var assimilation CH4

25. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM5, 3-hourly interpolated meteorology (release ~nov 2006) 3x2 degrees x 44+ levels Typically no zooming Full troposphere-stratosphere chemistry Recent anthropogenic emissions (EDGAR 2000) Expected from HYMN: –significant improvements in biosphere coupling for natural emissions / deposition (CH4, N2O, H2, NO2, CO, VOCs, …) HYMN Forward modeling

26. 10-11 October 2006HYMN kick-off TM5 at 3x2 degrees x 34 levels Methane emissions + chemical loss (OH from full chemistry runs) Datasets: –Sciamachy CH 4 /CO 2 from Univ. Heidelberg –FTIR CH4 –Surface observations Key issues on error assumptions –On single observations or on means? e.g. to suppress large error reductions –Simulation of systematic errors? –Correlated observations? –… HYMN Inversions