1. Estimating Volumes for I-95 HOT Lanes in Virginia Prepared for: 2009 Planning Applications Conference Houston, TX May 18, 2009 Prepared by: Kenneth D. Kaltenbach, P.E. The Corradino Group, Inc Jeremy Raw, P.E. Virginia Department of Transportation Transportation & Mobility Planning Division May 18, 2009

2. Summary What are HOT lanes? I-95 HOT Lanes in Fredericksburg How do you model HOT lanes? Structure of the finished model Model performance

3. What are HOT lanes? High-Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes are a class of managed lanes. Designated lanes, usually on a freeway Separated from general purpose lanes Toll charged for low-occupancy vehicles No toll for high-occupancy vehicles Electronic toll collection … Sell the excess HOV capacity

4. What are the benefits? I-95 is over capacity, widening for more general purpose is not likely Encourage three-occupant autos Sell excess capacity in HOV lanes Create a new revenue stream by charging those willing to pay for premium service – 50 mph guaranteed

5. HOT Lanes Modeling in Fredericksburg HOT Lanes already operating in Northern Virginia (Washington DC area) HOT Lane extension to Fredericksburg is a new project Fredericksburg Area MPO (FAMPO) needed to include the project in LRP and Air Quality Conformity. Had to be implemented quickly, about 90 days.

6. Extent of the Virginia I-95 HOT Lanes Project

7. Model Effort Fredericksburg Only Daily 24 hours No mode choice No Transit Daily assignment Extend net into DC Estimate AM, PM and off-peak periods Discrete auto occupancy levels Virginia Railway Express Period assignment with toll and HOT lane allocation “VERSION 2.0 MODEL” “VERSION 3.0 MODEL”

8. Model Requirements Important Factors for HOT Lane Model Point of entrance/exit Variable tolling to control lane congestion HOT lane effects outside model area held constant Include Virginia Rail Express ridership effects (DC-oriented commuter rail)

9. Current FAMPO Version 2.0 Model Network Northern External is Prince William Co. Line

10. Updated Network I-95 External Station split into distance stations External skims (HOT vs. Free) computed from NCRTPB model Use of I-95 outside model area held constant Northern External is Potomac River

11. Modeling Assumptions/Sources Distribution of trips on I-95 corridor outside Fredericksburg area borrowed from National Capital Region model (DC) Compiled via select link analysis Auto occupancy rates disaggregated from FAMPO model Time of Day directional traffic from VDOT traffic counts Toll/free split borrowed from I-394 MnPASS Express Lane Stated Preference Survey

12. Modeling Assumptions Length of trip outside area influences HOT lane use within area Vehicle occupancy alters sensitivity to toll SOV, HOV-2, HOV-3 HOT versus free lane choice made in assignment Model AM, PM and Off-Peak periods separately Value of time based on NCRTPB model, but adjusted to 2008 values ($10.24 - $17.06 / hr)

13. Operating Assumptions Goal: at least 50 mph in HOT lanes 3+ person carpools and buses: No Toll 2-person carpools and drive alone: Pay Toll Directional operating plan for HOT lanes to conform with DC peak directions (AM-NB, PM- SB, Off-split) Transponders -- no toll collection delay

14. Toll Diversion TOLL DIVERSION CURVE Toll($)/time saved (min)Fraction Toll 01.000 20.900 50.400 100.280 200.100 300.050 400.020 500.018 600.015 700.013 800.010 Source: I-394 MnPASS Express Lane Stated Preference Survey

15. Toll Calculation Function of the V/C on the managed lanes Logit function Several toll ranges explored Final toll rate ranged between $.00 and $0.25 per mile

16. Commuter Rail Virginia Railway Express VRE post-processing model Evaluates impact of HOT lanes on VRE Incremental logit model AM peak period trips only Cube Voyager PT network

17. Model Performance and Sensitivity Validation Sensitivity Toll Estimation HOT lane volumes

18. Validation Usual 4-step methods – for example …

19. Model Sensitivity

20. Toll Estimation

21. HOT Lane Volumes HOT lanes coded explicitly Multi-class assignment by vehicle occupancy HOT Lanes Band Width Plot

22. Next Steps Model performed well! Despite tight Air Quality conformity timeframe Additional improvements coming up Recalibrate from new NHTS Time of Day Modeling (AM, PM, Off-Peak) Full Mode Choice & Vehicle Occupancy Model Spatially improved network

23. Questions? Thank You