1. Assume That... ACBS World Conference XI July 2013 Julian McNally ACBS World Conference XI July 2013 Julian McNally

2. Do you have any assumptions to declare? Generate knowledge Precision Scope Depth Communicate clearly

3. Data-Free Zone!

4. This Is Personal... Personal = Generally applicable (at least potentially) How different? Why is nobody talking about this?

5. Let Me Say This... Anecdote Principles Your ideas and experiences Questions for your toolbox

6. Definitions: 1. Assumption 1.a thing that is accepted as true or as certain to happen, without proof: they made certain assumptions about the market | [ with clause ] : we're working on the assumption that the time of death was after midnight. [emphasis added.] 2.the action of taking or beginning to take power or responsibility: the assumption of an active role in regional settlements.

7. Definitions: 2. Belief 1.an acceptance that a statement is true or that something exists 2.(belief in) trust, faith, or confidence in someone or something. [Emphasis in original.]

8. The Difference I assume democracy is the best form of government. I believe democracy is the best form of government.

9. Once Upon A Time...

13. Yes, but...

15. Four “Laws” of Assumptions Invisibility Ubiquity/universality Power Can be chosen

16. Four “Laws” of Assumptions Invisibility Ubiquity/universality Power Can be chosen

17. In Black & White In Black & White

18. Four “Laws” of Assumptions Invisibility Ubiquity/universality Power Can be chosen

19. Invisibility Ubiquity/universality Power Can be chosen

20. Just 1 Powerful Assumption

21. Just 1 Powerful Assumption

22. Four “Laws” of Assumptions Invisibility Ubiquity/universality Power Can be chosen

23. Action/ Cause Not responsible Responsibl e Most freedom Not responsible Least freedom

24. Tools Questions for uncovering assumptions 1. “What has to be true for me to act this way?” 2. “What could I be wrong about?”

25. More Tools Questions for testing current assumptions 1. “Can life be workable when I live as if this is true?” 2. “Does this assumption express my values?” 3. “Is starting with this assumption stopping me from acting according to my values?”

26. Still More Tools Matrices 1. Pascal’s Wager 2. Johari Window

27. You/ They KnowDon’t Know Know Public“Blind Spot” Don’t Know SecretsHidden Johari Window Disclosure Seek Feedback Risk/Crea tivity

28. Still More Tools Questions for creating new assumptions 1. “What if...?” 2. “Just suppose...?” 3. “In a world where [proposed assumption] were true... how would things change then? How would you behave differently?” 4. “If I substitute this new assumption for the old one, what does it ask me to give up?”

29. Dangerous Assumptions "Grant an idea or belief to be true," it says, "what concrete difference will its being true make in anyone's actual life? How will the truth be realized? What experiences will be different from those which would obtain if the belief were false? What, in short, is the truth's cash-value in experiential terms?” - William James “You have to choose which future regret you're going to have.” - Christopher Hitchens

30. Dangerous Assumptions "Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" - Charles Darwin "One of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision." - Bertrand Russell

31. Right or Happy? Assumptions are: Everywhere Invisible Powerful