1. Dutch Protocol Monitoring Energy Savings & EU-directive P. Boonekamp ECN, Netherlands EU/ECEEE-seminar 21-9-2004, Brussels

2. Key features protocol Top-down approach Savings for 6 sectors and national Format coupled to policy issues Primary energy units Uncertainty margins in saving results Lessons for monitoring of Directive

3. Protocol method (1): saving categories Saving categories: -A. End use of heat and electricity -B. Conversion end-users (co-generation) -C. Conversion E-sector (power stations) All energy use figures in primary units of the base year (static primary)

4. Protocol method (2): calculation A. End use: -Saving on end use = Reference use – actual use (fuel/heat or electricity) -Reference use = base year use * change in energy relevant variable (ERG) B. Co-generation: -Savings = difference with separate production of heat/electricity C. Power stations: -Savings = effect higher conversion efficiency per type of fuel

5. Protocol method (3): end use Savings Change energy use

6. Primary energy units? (1)

7. Primary energy units? (2)

8. Quality of saving figures Quality dependent on: -Margins in energy consumption data -Margins in data on ERG-variable -Appropriateness of ERG for determining energy- use-without-savings (des-aggregation, choice of ERG) -Length of period of observation Quality saving figure: x% +/- y%-point

9. Uncertainty margins total saving (1990 - ….)

10. Quality Dutch saving results National 1990-2000: 1,2% +/- 0,3% National 1995-2002: 1,0% +/- 0,3% (0,7% final + 0,2% co-gen. + 0,1% power) Sectoral end use: industry good, services bad, remainder fair Conversion end use: good Conversion E-sector: fair/good

11. Lessons for monitoring of directive Uniform approach for EU > protocol, top-down, indicators Consistent approach for end use, co-generation and supply > primary energy units Uncertainty crucial for use of results: bad input data > big margins > conclusions after 3-10 years only Policy related fraction of total efficiency > also bottom- up policy measure evaluations Co-generation end users > both directives integrated? Service sector > very weak results! Transport/households > discussion on definition efficiency??

12. Dual monitoring approach Protocol/indicator approach: -Total efficiency increase (per sector) -Consistent with national efficiency result -Sufficient quality for policy evaluation Policy measure evaluation: -Policy related savings (per measure) -Contribution of EU- and MS-policy Integration/check: -Policy related savings < total savings -Comparison of effects common measures