1. PERCEPTIONS OF TENURE SECURITY: An exploratory analysis of pre-treatment data in rural communities across Ethiopia, Guinea, Liberia, and Zambia 1 The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily the views and opinions of the United States Agency for International Development. M. MERCEDES STICKLER, USAID 1 HEATHER HUNTINGTON, Cloudburst Consulting Group 25 March 2015

2. OVERVIEW  Introduction  Motivation  Interventions  Methodology  Findings  Summary  Next Steps

3. INTRODUCTION

4. Impact Evaluation at USAID USAID Evaluation Policy (2011) –Evaluation is important for learning and accountability –Impact evaluation required: pilots, scaling proven methods –Third party (independent) evaluations USAID Land Tenure and Resource Management Office supporting 7 impact evaluations in Africa USAID is committed to building local capacity and promoting women’s empowerment in our work

5. Evaluation, Research, and Communication (ERC) Project USAID Land Tenure and Resource Management (LTRM) Office 5 year project designed to improve the evidence base on land tenure and property rights interventions Primary objective: Generate rigorous empirical evidence on the impact of newer customary rights recognition interventions ERC impact evaluations: –Ethiopia (2) –Guinea –Liberia –Zambia (2)

6. MOTIVATION

7. Motivation for the Research Africa effect –Land tenure formalization in Africa has shown relatively weak impacts compared to other regions (Lawry, et al., 2014 1 ) Dearth of empirical evidence on the impact of newer customary rights recognition interventions Absence of gender-relevant evidence 1 Lawry, S., Samii, C., Hall, R., Leopold, A., Hornby, D., and F. Mtero. 2014. The impact of land property rights interventions on investment and agricultural productivity in developing countries: a systematic review. Campbell Collaboration, Oslo, Norway.

8. INTERVENTIONS

9. Ethiopia: Land Administration to Nurture Development (LAND) USAID/Ethiopia Borana pastoralists in southern Oromia Regional State Formal demarcation and certification of customary pastoral land use claims Strengthen customary rangeland management institutions

10. USAID/LTRM Improve compliance with the Kimberley Process Formalize customary tenure of land rights (surface) Introduce refinements to the existing system of parceling mining claims (subsurface) Guinea: Property Rights and Artisanal Diamond Development (PRADD)

11. Namati and the Sustainable Development Institute Integrated community land documentation methodology Boundary demarcation and conflict resolution Land governance and community empowerment Liberia: Community Land Protection Program (CLPP)

12. USAID/LTRM Codify customary land use and administration rules Issue customary land certificates at parcel/field level Extension services to promote the adoption of climate-smart agriculture Zambia: Tenure and Global Climate Change (TGCC)

13. METHODOLOGY

14. Methodology Prospective impact evaluations –Randomized Control Trial (TGCC) –Difference in Differences (LAND, PRADD, CLPP) Mixed methods Standard data collection instruments –Household survey –Leader/community survey –Key informant interviews –Focus group discussions Sub-groups of interest –Women, poor, youth

15. Key Survey Modules Mediating factors: country contexts (governance, land use, cultural practices, socio-economic status, markets) Interventions: ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ interventions designed to strengthen tenure security Mechanisms: land governance, community empowerment, conflict, perceived tenure security, knowledge Proximate outcomes: perceived tenure security, investment, conflict mitigation Distal outcomes: land productivity, livelihood/asset changes

16. Data CountryProjectData Collection PeriodHousehold Sample Size EthiopiaLANDAug – Sep 20143,851 GuineaPRADDOct – Dec 20142,000 LiberiaCLPPFeb – Mar 2-141,661 ZambiaTGCCJun – Jul 20143,523

17. FINDINGS: LAND CONFLICT

18. Perceived likelihood of tenure insecurity 1 2 3 4 5 Significance: *=90-95%; **=95-99%; ***=99%+

19. Prevalence of land-related conflicts Varied % of households reporting land dispute in past 3 years –Ethiopia: 14% –Guinea: 2% –Zambia 26% But field-level data from Zambia suggests incidence is quite low –11% of all fields had experienced a dispute in the past 3 years Sub-groups not always most disadvantaged –In Ethiopia, youth significantly more likely to experience conflict… 18% vs. 14% overall average –…but the poor are slightly less likely to have experienced conflict 12% vs. 14% overall average

20. Of those experiencing conflict, % HHs experiencing types Dispute TypeEthiopiaGuineaZambia Boundary524871 Grazing1903 InheritanceNot asked1126 Land reallocationNot asked208 Natural resource883 RentalNot asked111

21. Satisfaction with dispute resolution: % households

22. FINDINGS: INVESTMENTS

23. Tree planting by subgroup: % households CountryOverallPoorYouthFemale Head Guinea21 (fruit)13***17***12* Liberia88 (rubber)82***8883* Zambia11 (agroforestry)111011 Significance: *=90-95%; **=95-99%; ***=99%+

24. FINDINGS: DOCUMENTATION

25. Land documentation: % households

26. FINDINGS: LAND GOVERNANCE

27. Most important land decision maker 1 : % households AuthorityGuineaEthiopiaLiberiaZambia Customary 2 775487100 Government2242100 1 For Liberia and Zambia, question asked for “most important decision maker for land-related issues;” for Guinea, question asked “who helps with farmland encroachment?”; for Ethiopia, “who has control of community grazing area?” 2 Customary here includes “Traditional Authorities” and “Communities as a whole” depending on country context.

28. Liberia: Ladder of Power

29. Transparent decision-making: % households 1 2 3 4 5 Significance: *=90-95%; **=95-99%; ***=99%+

30. Sub-groups disadvantaged by rules/decisions 1 2 3 4 5 Significance: *=90-95%; **=95-99%; ***=99%+

31. Satisfaction with community land rules: % households

32. Perceived fairness of land allocation by subgroup (Lickert) 1 2 3 4 5 Significance: *=90-95%; **=95-99%; ***=99%+

33. SUMMARY

34. Summary USAID’s impact evaluations represent some of the first on interventions that strengthen customary land tenure security Overall findings –Customary tenure systems provide high levels of security to the majority –Customary land governance institutions remain highly relevant –Customary land institutions broadly seen as fair and responsive Tenure security & land governance are highly context-specific –Wide variance in concerns about land encroachment/expropriation –Differing directions in tenure security-investment relationships Sub-group effects vary across country and indicator –Statistically significant effects often expected direction but mostly small –Sub-groups seen as slightly disadvantaged in land rules and decisions –Baseline suggests that females are NOT consistently disadvantaged

35. NEXT STEPS

36. Next Steps Share baseline data with project implementers and the public –http://usaidlandtenure.net/data Improve generalizability and external validity of the research –Standardized survey modules –Growing the USAID evaluation portfolio Link survey results to administrative data Increase attention to the gendered nature of impacts Improve measures of tenure security and land governance –New proxies –Improved questionnaire design –Embedded survey experiments –Behavioral games

37. THANK YOU http://usaidlandtenure.net/data

38. RETAINER

39. Impact Evaluation at USAID USAID designs, tests, and evaluates innovative and cost-effective land tenure and property rights approaches around the globe that can be adapted, scaled, or used to inform new research, program design, or national policies. New research from USAID land and resource governance impact evaluation is building an evidence base to demonstrate how secure land tenure may improve economic growth, food security, climate change mitigation, and adaptation efforts, and gender equality.