1. Forest restoration in Brazil Rebecca Mant, Senior Programme Officer, UNEP-WCMC and the REDD-PAC team

2. Brazil’s national commitments Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) – Brazil intends to commit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 37% below 2005 levels in 2025 strengthening policies and measures with a view to achieve, in the Brazilian Amazonia, zero illegal deforestation by 2030 and compensating for greenhouse gas emissions from legal suppression of vegetation; restoring and reforesting 12 million hectares of forests by 2030, for multiple purposes; Brazil’s National Biodiversity Targets 2011-2020 – National Target 14: By 2020, ecosystems that provide essential services, are restored and safeguarded – National Target 15: By 2020, ecosystem resilience and the contribution of biodiversity to carbon stocks has been enhanced through conservation and restoration actions, including restoration of at least 15% of degraded ecosystems… Brazil has committed to reducing emissions, restoring forest and protecting biodiversity

3. Challenge of achieving objectives: Brazil’s new Forest Code Legal Reserves Illegal Deforestation Ban Small Farms Amnesty (SFA) Environmental Reserve Quota (CRA) mechanism

4. Challenge of achieving objectives: Brazil’s new Forest Code Legal Reserves Small Farms Amnesty (SFA) Environmental Reserve Illegal Deforestation Ban Modelling can help in the assessment of the potential impacts of different implementation approaches

5. REDD-PAC project Project Objectives Support decision making on: – REDD+ – Biodiversity conservation and – Broader land use policy Focusing on Brazil and the Congo Basin Using integrated land-use modelling (GLOBIOM)

6. GLOBIOM - Brazil  Global model  Economic (recursively dynamic partial equilibrium) model (market equilibrium found by maximizing the sum of producer and consumer surplus subject to resource, technological, and political constraints)  Focuses on major global land-based sectors: agriculture, forestry and bioenergy  Spatially explicit (3001 gridecells in Brazil)  Calibration 2000, validation 2010, projects up to 2050

7. Validation - Deforestation in Amazon Biome (2001-2010) 16.93 Mha 16.53 Mha National remote sensing data - PRODES GLOBIOM-Brazil

8. Validation: Crop production & bovine numbers 2010

9. Scenarios

10. Emissions 2010 - 2050 MtCO 2 e

11. Change in total forest 2000-2050 Mha

12. Expansion of regenerating forest 2000-2050 Mha

13. Increase in restored area can come at the same time as decrease in mature forest

14. So options that lead to more restoration may not always be good for biodiversity

15. Change within biodiversity priority areas Where are the biodiversity priority areas? -Brazil => currently looking at areas identified by MMA in 2007 -Are these still the most relevant?

16. Land use change (2010-2050) within areas “extremely important” for biodiversity (MMA 2007 priority areas)

17. Biodiversity impact also varies depending on how restoration is undertaken

18. Impacts on 311 species identified by ICMBio as threatened Impact depends on whether species habitat preference excludes or includes regenerating forest

19. Thank you and any questions Rebecca.mant@unep-wcmc.org www.redd-pac.org