1. ACHIEVING BREAKTHROUGH STATUS OF THE INTERNATIONAL LUNAR DECADE INTERNATIONAL ASTRONAUTICAL FEDERATION CONGRESS 12-16 OCTOBER 2015

2. TOPICS Vision What is ILD Why a decade. Why start in 2017? Necessity of international collaboration 2030 and beyond Evolution of an idea and status Planetary Society proposal Role of ILEWG Engaging international collaboration Funding and alternative scenarios No ILD –significant International collaboration cannot be marshalled ILD without COPUOS / UN endorsement – essentially initiative of ILEWEG and ISECG ILD with UN endorsement but without significant financing and involvement by US and other major space agencies ILD funded comparable to ISS - $150 billion in 2010 US dollars ILD funded to achieve breakthrough to self-sustaining space economy beyond Earth orbit.

3. ILD VISION Achieve breakthrough to sustainable operations in space.

4. The capacity to create wealth in space is a necessary precondition for sustainable human presence in space.

5. LUNAR BREAKTHROUGH Before No property rights on Moon Absence of agreement on claims to ownership or governance of commerce Resources not mapped Lack of Technologies for ISRU Lack of infrastructure for communications, transport, logistics, energy Absence of financing instruments for lunar development After Mining and other property rights agreed to Governance mechanism in place to manage commerce and related activities on the Moon Resources mapped and process developed to assign and regulate exploitation rights Infrastructure under development to meet long term needs to 2050 and beyond Growing number and kinds of financing instruments to address diverse lunar development needs

6. WHAT MARKS THE BREAKTHROUGH? Good business environment – predictable government policy, mining rights and other forms of property rights necessary to conduct business Manageable level of risk Investments in lunar projects can generate predictable cashflow Returns on investment attract increasing investments

7. We will know the breakthrough has taken place when Space projects can be funded from revenue generated in space ROI from space projects will be comparable or better than terrestrial projects Missions to Mars carrying large 100+ teams can be economically justified

8. ILD is a process to achieve the breakthrough to wealth creation beyond Earth orbit. The key is industrial development of the Moon Smart money would not be chasing asteroids if business was easier on the Moon ILD addresses barriers to lunar development

9. ILD IS A SYSTEMATIC PROGRAM TO OVERCOME BARRIERS TO WEALTH CREATION IN SPACE BARRIERRESPONSE No mining or property rights on MoonDevelop property rights Lunar resource base largely unknownExplore, identify and map resources No infrastructure to support lunar operations Develop infrastructure Lack of technologies to process lunar resources Develop required technologies Lack of space manufacturing capacityDevelop required manufacturing capacity Uncertain financing for lunar exploration & development Develop financing mechanisms

10. WHEN? The faster the better. Because the result is lower cost and risk for Mars and all other activities beyond LEO.

11. BY WHEN? There is no known insurmountable barrier to achieving breakthrough in a decade Every barrier to lunar development can be overcome.

12. Needed:  an agreed to plan to achieve breakthrough and  commitment by participating states to implement the plan

13. ILD: A dynamic framework for international collaboration to achieve breakthrough Concurrent development of policies, technologies, infrastructures, financing methods and public support required for the emergence of a sustainable space economy beyond Earth orbit.

14. WHAT ILD IS NOT ILD is not central planning for global space development. ILD elements can largely be initiated and managed through existing organizations. ISECG, UNCOPUOS, COSPAR, G20 process, NASA and other national space agencies are effective. ILD is about coordination and working together to achieve more with available resources ILD is not a scheme to expand government spending on space. ILD is intended to engage private business through public – private partnerships and where possible private investment

15. ILD ELEMENTS ELEMENTPROCESS Develop international agreement on property rights and governance of commercial activity on the Moon and in cislunar space No agreed to process. UN COPUOS?? Identify and map location, quality and extent of lunar resources Underway with some coordination via ILEWG Develop enabling technologies to process lunar resources, energy systems, space manufacturing Preliminary, largely hypothetical research. Need process to define technical requirements, call for development Develop infrastructure to support lunar operations. Start with ISS as part of the plan. Need long range plan that identifies infrastructure requirements in cislunar space, lunar surface Human presence requirementsShelter, food, atmosphere, water, low gravity effects, radiation. Use ISS as a testbed. Financing for lunar developmentG20, sovereign wealth funds, private-public partnerships, venture capital, agency budgets

16. WHY A DECADE? Breakthrough can be achieved in a decade – by 2030 A decade is more than the sum of ten years. A decade is a span of time in which large scale projects can be brought to fruition. Activities in space are inherently long term. A decade is longer than the 2 terms of an American president Technologies advance very rapidly. Milestones beyond a decade, even in space, become iffy. But planning should not stop at a decade. What comes after ILD??

17. WHY NOW? WHY START IN 2017? 2017 marks 60 years since IGY and the dawn of the space age. More importantly – we, humankind, now have the technical, financial and organizational capacity to make the breakthrough to permanent human presence in space. China’s GDP already exceeds US GDP during the construction of ISS, India is approaching US GDP of the 1990-2010 period. The EU exceeds US GDP. Other nations are advancing rapidly. Global GDP in 2015 is nearly $80 trillion. Achieving breakthrough is affordable. Collaboration in space during the Cold War left a positive legacy. Building large-scale collaboration in space now may have a disproportionate unifying impact countering powerful forces disrupting world order.

18. Global crises can destroy the capacity for joint action. If we don’t achieve breakthrough now, we may never do it…

19. IMPACT OF ILD Agreement to proceed with ILD by US, EU, China, India, Japan, Russia, others will signal a commitment to sustainable human presence in space. Immediate bump in market cap of space businesses Surge in business formation of space businesses Inflow of investment into space related venture funds

20. WHAT WILL BREAKTHROUGH COST? $150 billion over a decade? $1.5 trillion? More? The ISS has cost $150 billion – much of it from the US. Now much more bang for the buck than in 1990s. Future – 10 fold reduction of launch costs more than 10 fold improvement in performance and capabilities Savings from collaboration and coordination with pooled resources

21. COST OF ILD What missions, projects and tasks must be in the shortest path to achieve breakthrough to a sustainable space economy? Cost out the steps Assess financing options Reiterate until a financeable solutions becomes apparent

22. NECESSITY OF INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION Policy issues can only be resolved in an international context Level of knowledge required beyond capacity of any country Level of investment required calls for public-private partnership with international partners

23. HISTORY The Planetary Society first proposed an International Lunar Decade in 2006 endorsed by COSPAR, ILEWG, IAF, and the Secure World Foundation. Friedman February, 2007 presentation to COPUOS sought UN endorsement Session attendees showed enthusiasm but no member state championed ILD All missions and collaboration anticipated in ILD planning in 2006 completed

24. COPUOS UN Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space is the UN body concerned about space policy. COPUOS endorsement is necessary for UN sponsorship of ILD. David Dunlap of NSS is scheduled to make case for ILD to COPUOS, February 2016. If COPUOS endorses ILD in 2016, then UN General Assembly endorsement will become possible Initiatives can only be proposed by member states not NGOs Decision by unanimous consent Plan – seek several member states to sponsor ILD proposal

25. ISECG International Space Exploration Coordinating Group created in 2006 by 14 space agencies. a voluntary, non-binding international coordination 11 mechanism through which individual agencies may exchange information regarding 12 interests, objectives, and plans in space exploration with the goal of strengthening both 13 individual exploration programs as well as the collective effort. Anticipated role in ILD General coordination of missions Planning of shared infrastructure in cislunar space / lunar surface Guidance regarding technology requirements

26. ENGAGING INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION ISS Engaged NASA, Roscosmos, ESA, JAX, Canada to build the largest technological collaboration thus far Cost - $150 billion, mainly US ILD Engage all states with interest and capabilities to make a contribution. G20? COPUOS? Build on ISS and all previous collaborations Cost shared by all participants

27. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS No ILD –significant International collaboration cannot be marshalled ILD without COPUOS / UN endorsement – essentially initiative of ILEWEG and ISECG ILD with UN endorsement but without significant financing and involvement by US and or other major space agencies ILD funded comparable to ISS - $150 billion in 2010 US dollars «Moonrush» ILD funded to achieve breakthrough to self-sustaining space economy beyond Earth orbit.

28. ILD2 FUNDED COMPARABLE TO ISS $150 billion (2010 USD) Include all G20 members plus major emerging economies such as Nigeria Create opportunities for all other countries - Lunar Cubes, other projects for small countries, small business and universities Address infrastructure in cislunar space Lay the foundations for industrial development post 2030

29. POTENTIAL RESULTS ISS integrated with lunar research and development Policies developed that encourage private investment beyond Earth orbit, primarily Moon and cislunar space. Property rights Dispute resolution mechanisms System for establishing mining claims Key enabling technologies Infrastructure to lower cost, increase reliability, reduced risks The 21 st Century unfolds as the century of space…

30. CAN WE AFFORD IT? The global economy will be a multiple of the US economy when $150 billion was marshalled to build ISS. Private investment will comprise an increasing portion – if the policy issues can be resolved.

31. RESOLUTION OF POLICY ISSUES Three approaches: Moon Treaty – offers a defined, international process to develop an «international regime» including property rights for industrial development of the Moon. Private initiative - Establish law and practices through customary law. Begin with processing asteroids, establish business practices, as these get accepted over time they get the status of customary law. COMSAT type of entity chartered by US Congress – Lunar Development Corp that engages international partners much as COMSAT led to INTELSAT

32. CONCLUSIONS The ILD provides a framework for concurrently addressing enabling technologies, infrastructures, policies, financing and overall coordination for breakthrough to sustainable operations in space. No single community or entity can resolve the range of issues that must be addressed. Some issues could be addressed by the following: ISECG – key infrastructure linking low Earth orbit, cislunar space, lunar operations -- overall roadmap ILEWG – overall coordination of lunar research operations COPUOS / UNOOSA – space policy, means to engage smaller space partners / support for national level space celebrations, linkage with space advocacy groupss COSPAR, other research fora – reporting of research results, interacting with global scientific community Financing issues – G20? Lunar Development Corporation? Lunar Development Fund?

33. - vid.beldavs@fotonika-lv.eu International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG)