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U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook December 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council.

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Presentation on theme: "U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook December 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council."— Presentation transcript:

1 U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook December 2010 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council

2 Macroeconomic Environment

3 U.S. Real GDP Growth

4 U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price

5 U.S. #2 Diesel, Gulf Coast

6 Civilian Unemployment Rate

7 U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO Projection)

8 CBO Ag Baseline Spending

9 Real GDP Growth in Selected Countries

10 Euro (Currency per U.S. Dollar)

11 Real Exchange Rate Index (Other Important Trade Partners, Source – Federal Reserve )

12 Ag Prices Received Index

13 U.S. Net Farm Income

14 U.S. Cotton Supply

15 December Cotton Futures Cents per Pound

16 December Corn Futures Cents per Bushel

17 November Soybean Futures Cents per Bushel

18 Southeast1,891 2,602 37.6 Mid-South 1,627 1,930 18.6 Southwest5,243 5,931 13.1 West247 366 48.1 ALL UPLAND 9,008 10,829 20.2 ALL ELS141 209 47.8 ALL COTTON9,150 11,038 20.6 Southeast1,891 2,602 37.6 Mid-South 1,627 1,930 18.6 Southwest5,243 5,931 13.1 West247 366 48.1 ALL UPLAND 9,008 10,829 20.2 ALL ELS141 209 47.8 ALL COTTON9,150 11,038 20.6 2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change Thousand Acres *USDA June Acreage Report - Revised *USDA June Acreage Report - Revised

19 Southeast765 1,053 37.6 Mid-South 658 781 18.6 Southwest2,122 2,400 13.1 West100 148 48.1 ALL UPLAND 3,645 4,382 20.2 ALL ELS57 85 47.8 ALL COTTON3,703 4,467 20.6 Southeast765 1,053 37.6 Mid-South 658 781 18.6 Southwest2,122 2,400 13.1 West100 148 48.1 ALL UPLAND 3,645 4,382 20.2 ALL ELS57 85 47.8 ALL COTTON3,703 4,467 20.6 2010 U.S. Cotton Plantings 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change 20092010% Actual Estimated* Change Actual Estimated* Change Thousand Hectares *USDA June Acreage Report - Revised

20 U.S. Cotton Production

21 U.S. Cotton Supply

22 U.S. Cotton Demand

23 Net Domestic Fiber Consumption

24 Cotton’s Share of Fiber Consumption

25 U.S. Cotton Retail Consumption 2009 2010

26 Components of Retail Cotton Consumption

27 U.S. Cotton Textile Imports

28 U.S. Cotton Content in Textile Imports

29 U.S. Trade With Mexico

30 U.S. Trade with CBI

31 U.S. Imports from China

32 U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Calendar Year, Million Bales)

33 U.S. Cotton Mill Use 2010 2009

34 U.S. Cotton Mill Use (Crop Year, Million Bales)

35 U.S. Cotton Production & Use

36 The World Market & U.S. Cotton Exports

37 China Cotton Supply & Use

38 World Cotton Production

39 World Fiber Mill Use *PCI

40 Fiber Prices

41 World Cotton Mill Use

42 Foreign Cotton Production & Use

43 U.S. Cotton Exports

44 World Cotton Ending Stocks

45 Cotton Stocks/Use (World less China)

46 U.S. Supply and Demand Million Bales Beginning Stocks6.342.95 Production12.1918.27 Imports0.000.01 Total Supply18.5321.22 Mill Use3.463.55 Exports12.0415.75 Total Offtake15.5019.30 Ending Stocks2.951.90 Stocks-to-Use Ratio19.0%9.8% 2009/10e2010/11p

47 U.S. Supply and Demand Million Metric Tons Beginning Stocks1.380.64 Production2.663.98 Imports0.000.00 Total Supply4.044.62 Mill Use0.750.77 Exports2.623.43 Total Offtake3.384.20 Ending Stocks0.640.41 Stocks-to-Use Ratio19.0%9.8% 2009/10e2010/11p

48 Beginning Stocks60.5244.00 Production101.54115.53 Imports35.8938.66 Mill Use118.38116.25 Exports35.6038.68 Ending Stocks44.0043.39 Stocks-to-Use Ratio37.2%37.3% Beginning Stocks60.5244.00 Production101.54115.53 Imports35.8938.66 Mill Use118.38116.25 Exports35.6038.68 Ending Stocks44.0043.39 Stocks-to-Use Ratio37.2%37.3% World Supply and Demand Million Bales 2009/10e2010/11p

49 Beginning Stocks13.199.59 Production22.1225.17 Imports7.828.42 Mill Use25.7925.33 Exports7.768.43 Ending Stocks9.599.45 Stocks-to-Use Ratio37.2%37.3% Beginning Stocks13.199.59 Production22.1225.17 Imports7.828.42 Mill Use25.7925.33 Exports7.768.43 Ending Stocks9.599.45 Stocks-to-Use Ratio37.2%37.3% World Supply and Demand Million Metric Tons 2009/10e2010/11p

50 Merchants Ginners Cottonseed Producers Cooperatives Warehouses Manufacturers


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