1. Recent developments in container liner shipping
Frans Waals
Editor “DynaLiners”
Senior Shipping Consultant

2. Credit Risk Assessment Credit Reports, Constant Monitoring
Dynamar Activities
Credit Risk Assessment Credit Reports, Constant Monitoring
Marine Intelligence Marine Investigation, Vessel Tracking
Consultancy Liner, Container, Bulk
Shipping Publications DynaLiners, Container Trade Studies, Special Reports
But at first, if you allow me, a few words on Dynamar:
Founded in 1981, we are a, I dare say prominent, Shippng and Transport Information and Consultancy company.
- Our core activity is credit risk assessment, specialised in the maritime industry and the bunker/oil and container industry in particular. There hardly is any KG financed ship without a Dynamar rating on the prospective charterer. This activity brings us in daily intense contacts with a great many shipping companies.
-          Marine Intelligence amongst others tracks and locates ships and cargoes, and helps you preventing and/or detecting fraud
-          All the information gathered during our daily market scans and contacts with shipping companies form the basis of our consultancy activities
Spearheaded by our weekly newsletter Dyna Liners, we publish S5 (titels) S6 an increasing number of special reports on carriers, trades and shipping insight topics

3. Trades and liner services

4. World Container Trade

5. East West Trades TA E/FE TP TP E/FE
How would the Maersk Line liner pattern develop when the P&O Nedlloyd integration has all been set and done?
Dynamar is not the only one to think that it will not be too much remote from the once provoked Equatorial Pendulum concept. It will then be in the shape of a S46 Conveyor Belt stretching from North Europe via the Mediterranean, the Middle East and East Asia to the West Coasts of North and Central America and back, as long as the Panama Canal is not enlarged.
However, instead of relaying all boxes at the major hubs already under control, which include Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Algeciras, Port Said, Salalah, Port Tanjung Pelepas, Shanghai and Los Angeles, parallel operations will run alongside or adjacent to the conveyor belt on the thicker cargo routes (including the Atlantic) to reduce transhipment to the optimal minimum. TP
E/FE

6. Parallel Trades Med/NA TP/USEC Med/FE TA E/FE TP TP E/FE
How would the Maersk Line liner pattern develop when the P&O Nedlloyd integration has all been set and done?
Dynamar is not the only one to think that it will not be too much remote from the once provoked Equatorial Pendulum concept. It will then be in the shape of a S46 Conveyor Belt stretching from North Europe via the Mediterranean, the Middle East and East Asia to the West Coasts of North and Central America and back, as long as the Panama Canal is not enlarged.
However, instead of relaying all boxes at the major hubs already under control, which include Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Algeciras, Port Said, Salalah, Port Tanjung Pelepas, Shanghai and Los Angeles, parallel operations will run alongside or adjacent to the conveyor belt on the thicker cargo routes (including the Atlantic) to reduce transhipment to the optimal minimum.
Med/NA TP
TP/USEC
E/FE
Med/FE

7. North South Trades Med/NA Mid East TP/USEC ISC Africa Med/FE Lat.Am
E/FE TP
How would the Maersk Line liner pattern develop when the P&O Nedlloyd integration has all been set and done?
Dynamar is not the only one to think that it will not be too much remote from the once provoked Equatorial Pendulum concept. It will then be in the shape of a S46 Conveyor Belt stretching from North Europe via the Mediterranean, the Middle East and East Asia to the West Coasts of North and Central America and back, as long as the Panama Canal is not enlarged.
However, instead of relaying all boxes at the major hubs already under control, which include Bremerhaven, Rotterdam, Algeciras, Port Said, Salalah, Port Tanjung Pelepas, Shanghai and Los Angeles, parallel operations will run alongside or adjacent to the conveyor belt on the thicker cargo routes (including the Atlantic) to reduce transhipment to the optimal minimum.
Med/NA TP
Mid East
TP/USEC
ISC
E/FE
Africa
Med/FE
Lat.Am
Australasia

8. East West Volumes

9. FEFC – 1Q 2008 Westbound, 11.9% growth in the first three months
Eastbound, 3.8% decline in the first two months

10. US Trades – Export US exports booming
Especially to Europe, South America, ME and Africa

11. US Trades - Import US imports declining, after strong earlier growth
Imports twice as big as exports
Especially from South America

12. Latin America Europe average growth, Far East strong growth
Very imbalanced trades

13. Indian Sub Continent Strong growth Europe-ISC – balanced
Far East-ISC – large imbalance

14. Middle East
Average growth rates
Significant Imbalances

15. Australia
Average growth rates
Balanced trades
Low volumes

16. Africa Europe average growth, Far East fairly high growth
Huge imbalances

17. East West Service developments
Transpacific
Reduction of number of services
More carriers cooperating through vessel sharing agreements
Long winter season, much temporary capacity reduction
Transatlantic
Cooperating through vsa or slot charter agreements
Some carriers withdrawing completely
Europe/Mediterranean – Far East
Increasing number of services
Use of larger vessels
Introduction of mega container ships (10/15,000 TEU)
Focusing on serving specific areas (e.g. Black Sea)
Introducing more ships per service to save on fuel costs

18. North South Service developments
Latin America
Overcapacity
Carriers cooperating or withdrawing altogether
Indian Sub Continent
(Too?) many new services launched
Middle East
More direct services
Many feeder services
Australasia
Restructuring - new services started, existing disappearing (Far East trade)
Many vessel sharing agreement
Africa
Dedicated services to north coast from Far East, through transshipment in Med

19. Ports

20. Port Handlings

21. Multi-Millionaires
Shanghai to become world’s largest container port this year??
Hong Kong stagnating, to be overtaken by Shenzhen soon
Dubai Soaring
Kaohsiung overtaken by other ports

22. China All ports reporting strong growth
Even “smaller” port handle multi-million TEU

23. HLH range Le Havre and Zeebrugge record strong growth
Other ports growing respectable 10-15% increases

24. US West Coast Overall stagnating Imports stabilizing Exports booming
Empties significantly reduced

25. US West Coast - 1Q 2008
Imports falling
Exports double-digit growth

26. US East Coast
Still growing
Significant differences by port

27. First 2008 developments China Europe USWC USEC Continues fast growth
Modest growth (Antwerp and Rotterdam 6%)
USWC
Export booming, import declining, trade imbalance reducing
USEC
No figures available

28. Carriers and their fleets

29. Carrier fleet size

30. Fleet size compared

31. Consolidation

32. Total annual liftings

33. Liftings by East West Trade (2006)

34. Current ships size and order book

35. Forecasted Fleet Growth
Assuming no scrapping!

36. ULCS (10,000+ TEU)

37. Freight and costs Freight Cost
USD falling – some carriers switching to Euro onspecific trades
Revenues increasing, though very trade related
Surcharges
Cost
Fuel costs are rocketing (>USD 500/tonne)
Charter hire increased, but more or less stabilised

38. THANK YOU! Question?