1. 2002 Paul M. VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA, Beltsville, MD paul@aipl.arsusda.gov Longevity and Fertility

2. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (2)P.M. VanRaden 2002 History of Productive Life January 1994 – Single-trait PL for bulls July 1994 – Multi-trait PL at HA for all bulls January 1995 – Base change of 0.9 months January 1996 – Cow PL PTA’s first published August 2000 – New multi-trait methods at USDA August 2000 – Base change of 0.8 months November 2000 – Genetic correlations reduced

3. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (3)P.M. VanRaden 2002 PTA Productive Life  Productive Life (PL) = Total months in milk by seven years of age, including up to 10 months per lactation.  Multi-trait PL includes correlated traits Milk, fat, protein SCS Type composites (udder, feet & legs, size) Cull rate gradually replaces correlated traits

4. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (4)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Calculation of Multi-trait PL PTA PL = PA PL + Cov(true PL – PA, PTA – PA) Var -1 (PTA – PA) (PTA – PA) Begin with PA, regress on PTA – PA  Direct (single trait) PL and 7 indirect traits included in vectors  Weight on PTA – PA for each trait is determined by correlations, heritabilities, and reliabilities Decline to zero as single-trait REL for PL approaches 99%

5. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (5)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Heritabilities and Correlations Heritabilities and Correlations MilkFatProteinPLSCSSizeUdderF&L Milk.30.65.90.29.20.01-.20-.02 Fat.77.30.76.26.20.01-.20-.02 Protein.93.82.30.20.01-.20-.02 PL.34.29.34.085-.40-.04.30.19 SCS-.10 -.30.10-.11-.33-.02 Size.06.03-.11.40.26.22 Udder-.10.08-.33.26.27.10 F&L.01.19-.02.22.10.15 Genetic Correlation above diagonal Heritabilities on the diagonal (for Holsteins) Phenotypic Correlation below diagonal

6. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (6)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Example Data for PL Example Data for PL Milk (lb) Fat (lb) Protein (lb) PL a (mo)SCSSizeUdderF&L PTA+1,947+61 +1.1+3.38+.52+.90+.99 REL %81 6166757167 PA+588+44+28-.4+3.31+.73+.56+.81 REL PA b %48 464748 47 a PTA is single trait, PA is multi-trait b REL PA max = 50%

7. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (7)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Example Weights for PL Example Weights for PL Milk (lb) Fat (lb) Protein (lb) PL a (mo)SCSSizeUdderF&L PTA+1,947+61 +1.1+3.38+.52+.90+.99 REL %81 6166757167 PA+588+44+28-.4+3.31+.73+.56+.81 REL PA b %48 464748 47 Relative wt. %3 4 5 54-5 -8 16 4 Multi-Trait PTA+1.4 REL MT %63 a PTA is single trait, PA is multi-trait b REL PA max = 50%

8. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (8)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Stability of PL Evaluations  Update of 1997 study by Ryan Starkenburg  August 2001 evaluations compared for: January 1995 active AI bulls February 1997 active AI bulls  PTA protein adjusted to true protein  Bulls with sample code ‘0’ excluded  August 2001 PL reliability  90% (expected to be 1)  Regressions (expected to be 1) (hoped to be high)  Correlations (hoped to be high)

9. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (9)P.M. VanRaden 2002 High PTA PL Bulls from 1995 PL 1995 1 PL 2001 2 PTA PL BullDausRELDausREL1995 1 2001 2 C-E Bell Jake103.728461.993.42.8 P-R Roebuck50.6321,282.993.42.0 E S-W-D Eagle10,823.9913,542.993.32.5 B-H MarkOPolo538.8611,520.993.22.3 B Ethan39.579687.993.01.4 V-V Cleitus Bert42.5612,956.992.91.4 L-B Abel50.573013.982.81.2 J Secret Kody28.481410.962.81.1 1 January 1995 Evaluation 2 August 2001 Evaluation

10. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (10)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Low PTA PL Bulls from 1995 PL 1995 1 PL 2001 2 PTA PL BullDausRELDausREL1995 1 2001 2 P Ijon Dakota2817.944086.99-2.0-4.0 BigAlLouRahls47.53809.94-1.3-0.5 M Enhanc. Tater49.57650.92-1.1-3.5 W-R Chalet-Red131.733346.98-1.2 S Ijon Vision86.681363.96-0.9-1.4 L-Ro-D Reid120.731124.96-0.8 R Rotate Jimmy66.62706.92-0.8-0.5 O Rambo199.661839.96-0.60.0 1 January 1995 Evaluation 2 August 2001 Evaluation

11. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (11)P.M. VanRaden 2002 High PTA PL Bulls from 1997 PL 1997 1 PL 2001 2 PTA PL BullDausRELDausREL1997 1 2001 2 E Meadowlord7365932933.41.0 R-VU Emperor64637016993.32.6 SFL Sndwtr Itm97662396973.22.8 Ked Juror80689766993.21.1 I-C B Troy Cash71671348953.13.2 Prices Bonus54655142993.11.2 H-B Clei Aspen56651154943.11.9 H Aristides876910,428993.02.0 1 February 1997 Evaluation 2 August 2001 Evaluation

12. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (12)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Low PTA PL Bulls from 1997 PL 1997 1 PL 2001 2 PTA PL BullDausRELDausREL1997 1 2001 2 M-B C Geoffry64 329998-1.4-1.8 Peticote Lance18039522,29899-1.2-3.1 S-B N-B Mascot10,4609931,02199-2.7 Q-P Madison3208163792-2.8 L Rex Richard11774658199-0.9-1.5 J Rotate Jed42985895199-0.8-0.7 P Desperado62189102794-0.6-1.1 R Rte Juggler22499613,48699-0.6-1.7 1 February 1997 Evaluation 2 August 2001 Evaluation

13. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (13)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Current and Past Evaluations Regressions and Correlations August 2001 Regressions MilkFatProteinPLSCS February 1997.90.93.85.88.94 January 1995.92.93.88.87.96 August 2001 Correlations February 1997.81.86.82.62.83 January 1995.78.85.81.58.80

14. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (14)P.M. VanRaden 2002 PL and Lifespan Defined  PL Credit for maximum 10 mo per lactation Records  305d weren’t stored in database Long calving intervals unprofitable  Lifespan Credit for months between lactations Higher yield and bST allow longer lactations Embryo donors not penalized

15. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (15)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Lifespan and PL Compared  Heritability 6.7% for lifespan 7.6% for PL (8.5% official PL estimate since 1994)  Genetic correlations of lifespan.986 with PL More correlated than PL with yield Less correlated than PL with SCS Less correlated with fertility (-.46 vs -.59)

16. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (16)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Cow Fertility  Days Open Calving interval – 280 days Lower limit of 50 days, upper limit 250 Sold for reproductive problems = 250  Genetic parameters 3.7% heritability.32 correlation with protein.30 correlation with SCS

17. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (17)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Bulls with Low Daughter Fertility Bull PTA Days OpenPTA PL P Lance 15.9-3.0 J Rte Jed11.1-0.6 K-M Bell Joy11.0-0.5 E Rte Duke10.9-1.4 R Rte Juggler 9.7-1.7 J-S Mark Anthony 9.5-1.8 H Mr Mark Cinder 9.0-0.1 A-R Ever-Ready 8.0-0.7

18. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (18)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Bulls with High Daughter Fertility Bull PTA Days OpenPTA PL E C Valiant -7.21.2 S Mark Arthur-6.03.4 O Chrmn Monitor-5.40.4 S Valiant Winken-5.30.7 T-H Valiant Rockie-5.20.9 C-W Valour-5.11.5 C Emerald Target-5.01.6 L-M Centurian-4.80.7

19. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (19)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Foreign Longevity Evaluations  Measures of longevity: Survival, herd life, stayability, durability, PL  Most countries adjust for yield  Evaluated in 13 Countries: Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Great Britain, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, Switzerland, USA

20. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (20)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Foreign Bull Productive Life  Options Set PL equal to zero or breed average Simple regressions on yield (1995-2000) Use parent average from domestic PL data (August 2000) Combine PA with Interbull yield and type (November 2000) Include also Interbull SCS (May 2001) MACE for longevity (Dutch research)

21. NAAB Dairy Trade Mission – Longevity and Fertility (21)P.M. VanRaden 2002 Conclusions  Longevity rankings have high value but lower accuracy than other traits.  Cow fertility has low heritability (3.7%) but high genetic correlation with PL (-.59).  Selection on PL is effective, but cow fertility evaluations could increase lifetime profit. Credit for embryo donors may be needed.