1. Projecting FIA Data With FVS and ORGANON Greg Latta Oregon State University College of Forest Resources

2. A Cry For Help (or Discussion) Regarding Projecting FIA Data With FVS and ORGANON Greg Latta

3. Background Regional and Nation forest sector economics models need timber supply representation. Look at moving from a strata based inventory/harvest scheduler to more detail. FIA plot level Growth and Yield modeling as “Supply Curves” in Economic Models

4. Nationwide G&Y Modeling All FIA plots would be modeled. That lead to FVS as G&Y model. If we used FVS in the PNW what differences might we expect from recent regional work.

5. A Comparison We decided to grow all FIA private forestland plots (condition classes) in both FVS and ORGANON and make a comparison. How to do this and keep them anywhere near comparable?

6. Models Used ORGANON DLL (2 versions) –Both SW and SMC dll’s dated 7/10/2002 FVS (3 versions) –PNW Coast dated 12/6/2002 –W Cascades dated 12/6/2002 –Klamath Mt. Dated 12/13/2002

8. Approach #1 Use same tree lists Use same volume equations Use same trees for site index computations SET MAX SDI the same.

16. Approach #2 Use same tree lists Use same volume equations Use same trees for site index computations SET FVS MAX BA to ORGANON MAX BA.

24. Possible Issues Hardwoods Large tree recruitment Long Rotations Carbon Sequestration

25. So what do you want it to be???

26. Bonus Slides Here I’ll show 3 stand level info. I chose 3 young doug-fir stands. I will have a SVS stand “picture” as well as boardfoot volumes (hardwood and softwood—this may seem silly but the program graphs both and I am just doing a screen capture), cubic foot volumes, softwood QMD, total basal area per acre and stand density index. Stand 1 -- is FIA county 41, plot 36, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 405 doug-fir per acre. The Bruce site index is 160. This stand is grown in the SMC ORGANON and PN FVS. Stand 2 -- is FIA county 39, plot 32, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 395 doug-fir per acre. The Bruce site index is 131 and Cochran site index is 180. This stand is grown in the SMC ORGANON and WC FVS. Stand 3 -- is FIA county 33, plot 83, condition class 1. It is a young stand with 490 doug-fir per acre. The HannScrivani site index is 86 and King site index is 85. This stand is grown in the SWO ORGANON and NC FVS.

27. Stand 1 SVS representation

28. Stand 1 BF Graphs –Alternative 1

29. Stand 1 BF Graphs –Alternative 2 The program scales the graphs so this one has a different scale. Sorry.

30. Stand 1 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1

31. Stand 1 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2

32. Stand 2 SVS representation

33. Stand 2 BF Graphs –Alternative 1

34. Stand 2 BF Graphs –Alternative 2

35. Stand 2 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1

36. Stand 2 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2

37. Stand 3 SVS representation

38. Stand 3 BF Graphs –Alternative 1

39. Stand 3 BF Graphs –Alternative 2

40. Stand 3 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 1

41. Stand 3 CF, BA, SDI Graphs –Alternative 2 I checked the keyword file and this guy had a BAMAX of 381. In the output file there was a note that the forest max of 850 had been exceeded and so 850 was the SDI used for Doug-fir

42. Super Bonus Slide - I had it so here it is. These are the SDI and Basal area per acre values over time for the control plots at several LOGS installations. Does SDI peak and stay there or does it come down? Does BA/acre keep going up? Who knows, but look at all the pretty colors.